HCMR-Institute of Inland Waters Seminar Series, 29-1-2009

1. Application of the DPSIR analytical framework in a complex delta system: evaluation of the Thermaikos Gulf (Greece) coastal zone changes during 100 years of human interventions Aristomenis P. Karageorgis, Vassilios Kapsimalis, Areti Kontogianni, Michalis Skourtos, Kerry Turner and Wim Salomons HCMR-Institute of Inland Waters Seminar Series, 29-1-2009

2. EuroCat ProjectEuropean Catchments: catchment changes and their impact on the coast Baltic North Sea Vistula Humber Elbe Rhine AFICO project Po Axios Mediterranean

3. Soil River Atmosphere Properties of the river catchments Human activities Estuary Coast Coastal Response EuroCat Project (2000-2004) The catchement-coast as one system. EUROCAT focused on coastal eutrophication problems caused by nutrient over-enrichment and high N&P emissions. MONERIS model was used to simulate N&P emissions in the catchment. WASP model was used to simulate N&P in the coastal zone.

4. Thermaikos Gulf catchment area Catchment area: 40,000 km2 Axios R. FYROM Gallikos R. GREECE Thessaloniki Loudias R. Thermaikos Gulf Aliakmon R.

5. DPSIR Framework GLOBAL CHANGE Socio-Economic Drivers Environmental Pressures. Biophysical properties basin-coast Policy Response & Management Options Environmental ‘State’ Changes: Impacts Coastal Response Stakeholders Gains/losses

6. Historical times Today Evolution of the Thessaloniki deltaic plain since 500 BC(Struck, 1908)

7. Satellite image of the coastal zone of Thermaikos Gulf (1997)

8. Major historical events

9. 1913-Stable borderline The New GreeceColour lithograph depicting the New Greece [upon] the newly liberated lands, crowning the Greek armed forces, 1913, Athens, National Historical Museum.

10. Socioeconomic drivers evolutionend of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century-Ottoman Empire • Greek rebels fighting for liberation • malaria-typhus • floods The Balkans after the First Balkan War Swamps of Yiannitsa

11. Socioeconomic drivers evolutionend of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century-Ottoman Empire View of Yiannitsa First plans to drain the swamps

12. Socioeconomic drivers evolution1910-1920 The river was naturally diverted to the east and the new river mouth was located at 6.5 km west of the Thessaloniki port-threat of blocking the port 1920 Albanakis et al., 1993

13. Socioeconomic drivers evolution1922 The catastrophe of the Greeks in Asia Minor brought a wave of 800,000 refugees Needs for economic support

14. Socioeconomic drivers evolution1890-2000 POLITICAL REASONS HUMAN HEALTH/FLOODS POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRANSPORT PORT SILTATION Year 1900 1950 2000

15. Diachronic pressures evolution1930-1936 In the 1930’s the Greek state had to face the growing demands for new agricultural areas, flood control, improvement in public health, increased standard of living, reduction of unemployment, and transport improvements

16. Diachronic pressures evolution1930-2000 • Realignment of the river route to its present position; this work resolved the siltation problem of the Thessaloniki port entrance • The Loudias Lake and the swamps were drained • Development of a huge irrigation and road network • Development of agriculture (e.g. rice production up to 60% of the Greek total, wheat, maize, barley, cotton, tobacco)

17. REFUGEES REHABILITATION DRAINING AXIOS R. DIVERSION ARABLE LAND WATER DEMAND DAMMING CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AQUACULTURE Year 1900 1950 2000 Diachronic pressures evolution1890-2000

18. Environmental State of the coastal zone(indicator: coastline configuration) 1935 1945 1989 1970 Albanakis et al., 1993

19. Environmental State of the coastal zone(indicator: submarine erosion-accretion) erosion accretion

20. Environmental State of the coastal zone PERIODS I II III Time No Low High Human Implication Accretion High Accretion Erosion Status Net Sedimentation Rate + 6.5 + 18.0 - 2.5 1850-1920 1920-1952 1952-2000 6 3 (10 m /yr)

21. Impacts on the coastal zone REDUCTION OF RIVER LOADS SUBSIDENCE AQUIFER AND SOIL SALINIZATION COASTLINE RETREAT REDUCTION OF WETLANDS BIODIVERSITY LOSS 1900 1950 2000 Years

22. First plans for draining Draining by Foundation Co. Axios R. Diversion Establishment of local authorities Master Plan for Thessaloniki RAMSAR Convention NATURA Network Master Plan for Axios/Vardar Year 1900 1950 2000 Responses

23. Assessment of human activitiesPOSITIVE EFFECTS • Economic development • Disappearance of diseases • Rehabilitation of refugees • Termination of the siltation threat forthe port of Thessaloniki • Dense network of land transports and navigation

24. Assessment of human activitiesNEGATIVE EFFECTS • Erosion of the coastline • Subsidence of urban and industrial areas • Reduction of wetlands • Biodiversity loss • Drastic decrease of water resources • Salinization of deltaic aquifers

25. Suggested actions • Partly replacement of the highly waterconsuming cultivations inthe deltaic plain for the increase of water discharge in the lower part of the rivers • Restriction of the ground water over-pumping from the deltaic aquifers • Enlargement of the protected areas by theRamsar Convention andthe NATURA 2000 Network • Legislation of “hard and fast” rules for the illegal sand extraction • Strengthening of seawalls and construction of new ones from bothsides of the Gallikos R. mouth

26. Photo-mosaic of the Axios River delta This work has been submitted for publication to Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science and was rejected. Some of the referee’s comments were: non-scientific, were are the data, ….