John Mohan (University of Southampton) Joanna Taylor (University of Portsmouth)

1. Investigating the Goodhart thesis at the local scale:Perceptions of antisocial behaviour and neighbourhood ethnic heterogeneity in the BCS John Mohan (University of Southampton) Joanna Taylor (University of Portsmouth) Liz Twigg (University of Portsmouth) Crime Surveys User Group 9th December 2008

3. The ‘Goodhart Thesis’ In a provocative argument the political commentator David Goodhart (editor of Prospect Magazine) suggested that the UK is now “too diverse”. In other words, that ethnic heterogeneity is associated with adverse social consequences.

4. “There is evidence that the more diverse an area is in racial terms, the less likely its residents are to feel that they trust each other. This is an important argument and it is important that we examine it” (David Blunkett, 2004) Alesina and La Ferrara: heterogeneity reduces civic engagement and social capital: “natural aversion to heterogeneity”. Putnam: 41 communities in USA – diversity associated with reduction in social capital. Diversity not disadvantage?

5. Ford: no relationship between diversity and attitudes to welfare. Letki: no independent effect for diversity on social capital and trust; SES more influential. Pennant: no statistically significant relationship between diversity and either civic participation or volunteering. Heath and Laurence: crime and disadvantage more significant as predictors of cohesion than ethnicity or heterogeneity. British studies: disadvantage not diversity?

6. Multilevel structure of the BCS

7. Super Output Areas Super Output Areas (SOAs) are a geography designed for the collection and publication of small area statistics. SOAs give an improved basis for comparison across the country because the units are more similar in population size than, for example, electoral wards.

8. disadvantages Middle SOAs versus Lower SOAs • Middle SOAs • Area level data not available at MSOA level • Continuous data e.g., Indices of Deprivation • Categorical data e.g., geodemographic classifications • Lose information by ‘aggregating up’ x

9. disadvantages Middle SOAs versus Lower SOAs Middle SOAs Area level data not available at MSOA level Continuous data e.g., Indices of Deprivation Categorical data e.g., geodemographic classifications Lose information by ‘aggregating up’ Lower SOAs Too sparse clustering In other words too few respondents per area

10. Attached via the Super Output Area codes • Census data • Population turnover • Percentage of social housing • Percentage economically inactive • Percentage in manual or routine occupations • Ethnic group (for measures of ethnic heterogeneity) • Cross Government rural and urban area classification • 2007 Indices of Deprivation • Seven separate domains including crime and income deprivation • Derived from the BCS data • Quality of housing (interviewer assessment) • Levels of informal social control Data at the MSOA level

11. Measures of ethnic heterogeneity (1)Theil Entropy Score istands for a neighbourhood area . r stands for the following ethnic groups (a) white, (b) mixed, (c) Asian or Asian British, (d) black or black British, and (e) Chinese or other. πri represents the proportion of group r in area i (2001 Census).

12. Measures of ethnic heterogeneity (2)Cluster Analysis

13. Perceptions of antisocial behaviour How much of a problem is… …abandoned or burnt-out cars …noisy neighbours or loud parties …people being drunk or rowdy in public places …people using or dealing drugs …teenagers hanging around on the street …rubbish or litter lying around …vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property

14. Perceptions of antisocial behaviour How much of a problem is… …abandoned or burnt-out cars …noisy neighbours or loud parties …people being drunk or rowdy in public places …people using or dealing drugs …teenagers hanging around on the street …rubbish or litter lying around …vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property Σ 3=very big problem2=fairly big problem1=not very big problem0=not a problem at all 11+ defined as ‘high levels of perceived ASB’

15. Modelling strategy – multilevel Why multilevel modelling and not logistic regression? Data are clustered (hierarchical in nature) Not taking account of this data structure increases likelihood of Type 1 errors – detecting statistical significance when it is not really present. Simultaneous modelling of individual and area characteristics

16. Used MLwiN devised by the Centre for Multilevel Modelling in Bristol http://www.cmm.bristol.ac.uk/index.shtml Three level model Police Forces Areas (n=38 (England only)) Middle Super Output Areas (n=4,002) Individuals (n=43,115) Generalised least squares (IGLS) based on first order marginal quasi-likelihood approximation. Model’s coefficients checked for stability using Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulation. The Multilevel Model

17. Individual / household factors Age 50 Married Not been a victim of BCS crime In good health Owner occupier Area factors Living in an urban area Average levels of deprivation Average levels of population turnover Living in a predominately white area Ms ‘base’ or ‘stereotypical’ respondent

18. Factors which increase the likelihood of high perceived ASB Individual / household factors Younger person Poor health Recent victim of BCS crime Living in social housing Area factors High levels of income deprivation High proportion of adults in manual occupations

19. 71% Factors which increase the likelihood of high perceived ASB Individual / household factors Younger person Poor health Recent victim of BCS crime Living in social housing Area factors High levels of income deprivation High proportion of adults in manual occupations 8% (base)

20. Does ethnic heterogeneity affect levels of perceived ASB? Theil entropy score Level of ethnic diversity in an area Not significant (at the 5% level) Ethnic clusters Typology based on the ethnic mix of an area Not significant (at the 5% level) Interaction between turnover and Theil score Significant at the 5% level In other words high levels of ethnic heterogeneity in a community can have a harmful effect on an individual’s perceptions of their area when the area is also subject to above average levels population turnover

21. Conclusions Deprivation, rather than diversity, which is most strongly associated with perceived high levels of ASB. Only very limited support for Goodhart’s theory (only in areas with high population turnover).

22. Next steps Explore other potential ‘adverse social consequences’ of heterogeneous neighbourhoods such as reduced levels of informal social control, social cohesion and trust. Investigate the relationship between these factors using multivariate multilevel modelling. Extend measures of heterogeneity to include age, tenure and social class.

23. Investigating the Goodhart thesis at the local scale:Perceptions of antisocial behaviour and neighbourhood ethnic heterogeneity in the BCS Any questions?