Recent Immigrants: The Force Behind GTA Growth Presentation to the Provostial White Paper Working Group July 28, 2009

1. Recent Immigrants: The Force BehindGTA Growth Presentation to the Provostial White Paper Working GroupJuly 28, 2009 Glenn Craney Executive Director, Office of Institutional Research and Analysis

2. Current position: York is the primary university for north GTA.

3. Compare: U of T pulls students from east and west GTA…

4. …and Ryerson shows fragmented geographical pull.

5. Why is this a position of strength? • York and Peel Regions are growing fast. • 1.3 million more people by 2030 • 70% of GTA growth in 18 to 21 year olds • Most will be recent immigrants to Canada. • Our strengths in relation to these growing communities: • Location • Commitment • Experience

6. Three questions for mobilizing these strengths… • What will be the experience of recent immigrants to the GTA in the years ahead? • What does this suggest about their future desires regarding university education? • Who will be involved in providing university education to these students?

7. What will be the experience of recent immigrants to the GTA in coming years? • Current Experience • Spatial concentration

8. The recent immigrant experience: spatial concentration Source included in handouts

9. What will be the experience of recent immigrants to the GTA in coming years? • Current Experience • Spatial concentration • Pros and cons of urban enclaves • Social and cultural divides • Language • Institutions and services for civic engagement • Social exclusion  persistent poverty

10. The recent immigrant experience: persistent poverty Source included in handouts

11. The recent immigrant experience: persistent poverty Source included in handouts

12. What will be the experience of recent immigrants to the GTA in coming years? • Current Experience • Spatial concentration • Pros and cons of urban enclaves • Social and cultural divides • Language barriers • Lack of accessible institutions and spaces for civic engagement • Social exclusion  persistent poverty • Lack of skills/credentials recognition • Discrimination (labour market access and mobility) • Lack of accessible services and housing

13. What will be the experience of recent immigrants to the GTA in coming years? • Plausible Trajectories • Relative certainties • Spatial concentration • Short term social and cultural capital deficits • Uncertainties • Successfully tackling persistent poverty and social exclusion • Which trajectory will the GTA follow? • Ongoing monitoring

14. What will these recent immigrants want from their university education? • Current Profile • Recent immigrants in GTA more likely to…

15. Recent immigrants more likely to… apply to university Dark blue: sig. more than expected Dark green: sig. fewer than expected

16. Recent immigrants more likely to… apply to GTA universities

17. Recent immigrants more likely to… come from a poor family

18. Recent immigrants more likely to… have a parent with university education

19. Recent immigrants more likely to… have parents involved in decisions

20. Reputation of university… …and of program Graduates get high quality jobs Close to home Recent immigrants more likely to… base decisions on job prospects

21. Recent immigrants more likely to… apply to sciences and business

22. Recent immigrants more likely to… aspire to graduate & medical degrees

23. What will these recent immigrants want from their university education? • Current Profile • Recent immigrants in GTA more likely to… • Apply to university • Apply to GTA universities • Come from a relatively poor family • Have a parent with university education • Have parents “very much” involved in choice of university and program / major • Base application decisions on perceived job prospects • Apply to natural/applied sciences or management/commerce • Aspire to graduate and medical degrees

24. What will these recent immigrants want from their university education? • Plausible Trajectories • Program mix / labour market aware curriculum • Whole family approach • Credentials recognition / upgrade • Early outreach • Learning opportunities that fit with broader life demands • Ability to pay • Ability to learn • Recent immigrants as marketing “green field”

25. Who will be involved in providing university education in GTA? • Plausible Trajectories: Partners and Funding • Relative Certainties • Demographic deficit and social exclusion • Dependency ratio in 2030: almost 75% • Will be major preoccupation of government • Opportunity for universities (deliver solutions  get funding) • Labour pool contraction and the creative economy • Private sector has a major stake in full inclusion of immigrants • Uncertainties • Evolving role of governments and non-government actors • NGOs, foundations, private donors as sources of funding & policy • Requires ongoing monitoring

26. Who will be involved in providing university education in GTA? • Plausible Trajectories: Competition • Relative Certainties • Competition for 105s • Recent immigrants: entire families with university learning needs • Education delivery • Recent immigrants: significant life demands and constraints • Expansionism • College expansion into degree granting • Demographics: Non-GTA universities moving in • Uncertainties • Evolving nature of globalization and non-state actors • International and/or private sector competitors • Again, ongoing monitoring