User needs from a GHG inventory perspective * UNECE Task Force on Climate Change Statistics

1. User needs from a GHG inventory perspective* UNECE Task Force on Climate Change Statistics 19-20 November 2012, Geneva Ricardo Fernandez European Environment Agency * Background paper: ‘User needs of climate change statistics from a greenhouse gas inventory perspective: Gaining support for improved NSO involvement’

2. Outline of the presentation • Objective and typology of user-needs [compilers, reviewers and analysts] • Quality principles in GHG inventories [what does quality mean?] • National inventory systems [how to ensure quality] • International review under UNFCCC/KP [who ‘rubber-stamps’ quality] • Improving/enhancing the role of NSOs in GHG inventories: examples for the energy sector • Summary/conclusions

3. I. Objective and typology of user-needs • Objective: To provide a short overview of user needs from a GHG inventory perspective and give you some examples of the role of NSOs to meeting those needs • Typology of user needs: • GHG inventory compilers: provision/sharing of quality AD to estimate EM • GHG inventory reviewers: flagging quality improvements in ARRs [quality of CO2 EM in the energy sector = quality of AD] • GHG/climate mitigation analysts: complexity (ERTs) vs. simplicity [policy makers, journalists, general public]

4. II. What does quality mean? • Quality principles are defined in the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines (TACCC) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop8/08.pdf • Transparency: Clear assumptions and methodologies • Accuracy: unbiased estimates reflecting true emissions (no systematic error) + reduce uncertainty (improve precision) • Consistency: Over all its elements and over time (time series) • Comparability: Spatial, through agreed IPCC methodologies • Completeness: [All countries] + all sectors + all gases + all years Because the EU is the sum of its MS, the quality of EU GHG estimates reflects the quality of MS GHG estimates!

5. III. How to ensure quality, at EU level? • Legal basis ‘EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism Decision’ - EU is Party to UNFCCC/KP and coordinates with 27 MS • Institutional arrangements ‘EU National System’ - internal set-up to deliver high quality GHG inventories • WG1 Climate Change Committee - forum to discuss compilation and review activities + quality improvements [all 27 MS & EU National System] • The EU’s QA/QC Programme & Plan - Who does what, when and how in the EU’s National System?

6. IV. Who ’rubber-stamps’ quality in emission inventories? • International reviews under UNFCCC/KP : the quality of a GHG inventory is reviewed annually by independent group of experts from Annex I and non-Annex I Parties to UNFCCC ~ very thorough reviews! • Reviews show that quality depends on well functioning national systems*: • Planning ~ e.g. allocate responsibilities and ensure sufficient capacity & establish a QA/QC Plan and define quality objectives • Preparation ~ e.g. estimate GHG emissions/removals using appropriate methods (IPCC) & collect sufficient activity data and EFs • Management ~ e.g. documentation/archiving & responding to questions during UNFCCC reviews *More info on National Systems: Decision 19/CMP.1, Guidelines for national systems under Article 5, para 1 of the Kyoto Protocol GHG Inventory cannot be perfect but needs to reflect continuous quality improvements!

7. V.i Examples of user needs during compilation in the energy sector: AD to estimate emissions • The quality of the energy balances is fundamental > Energy sector = 80% of total GHG emissions • Examples of current/potential involvement by NSOs to improve AD quality • Eurostat’s role in the EU’s national system • IPCC Reference Approach [top down, fuel based] • Sectorial Approach [bottom up, using harmonised energy balances reported under the EU Energy statistics Regulation] • Improvements in the quality of energy statistics • Consistency of energy balances (ESR) and inventory data (CRF) • Key category analysis [most important emission/sink sources in a country] ~ easy to know where to focus quality improvements • Data sharing among all institutions concerned is essential! inventory compilers need access to all relevant data for a good quality inventory

8. Consistency of energy balances and AD in GHG inventories (crucial!) EU Energy Statistics Regulation [ESR] ~ consistency energy balance & activity data in CRFs Art. 6.2 ‘Every reasonable effort shall be undertaken to ensure coherence between energy data declared in accordance with Annex B and data declared in accordance with Commission Decision 2005/166/EC of 10 February 2005 laying down the rules for implementing Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol’. EU-15

9. Tier 1 Key category analysis: prioritising inventory improvements > focus where it makes a difference! [tier 2 includes uncertainty]

10. Potential role for NSOs during compilation, linked to QA/QC – verification of emission estimates • Energy sector, IPCC Reference Approach for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (mandatory in UNFCCC Reporting) • What about other sectors? Industrial processes, Waste, Agriculture and LULUCF • Can there be a role for NSOs? e.g. to provide a third party ‘verification’ of activity data / emissions provided by MS on a sectorial bases [Eurostat could be instrumental for the EU’s QA/QC perspective]

11. V.iiExamples of user needs during review: to ensure continuous quality improvements • Annual Review Reports [ARRs] are the best source of information to motivate improvements in data quality • http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/inventory_review_reports/items/6048.php • GHG inventory agency coordinates input by institutions in the national system • If NSO is not in the national system > be proactive if issue/s flagged in ARRs fall under NSO competence • 2 examples of relevant recommendations to improving the quality of AD [ARRs 2011 cycle] • Consistency between energy balances and GHG inventory activity data • Consistency between energy balances and data reported under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

12. Link energy balances and CRF activity data In some countries, the ERTs can facilitate communication and/or sharing of information between different institutions GHG inventory compilers need to be able do their job [should have access to all relevant data for the estimation of emissions]

13. Link energy balances and EU ETS activity data ETS activity data is not always available to energy balance & inventory compilers Improving the consistency between ETS, energy balances and CRF activity data is essential [e.g. EU-target setting assumes consistency of ETS and inventory data]

14. V.iiiExamples of user needs for a wider audience • GHG inventories are really complex: inventory compilers and reviewers understand them! • GHG inventories cannot answer everything about climate change, and aren’t designed for policy makers, journalists or the general public. • Some examples of questions by journalists are: • What about the role of renewables, and nuclear? • Are biomass emissions carbon neutral? • What about carbon intensity and energy efficiency? • Is the economic recession reducing emissions? • Is the EU ETS reducing emissions? • Are warmer winters leading to lower heating demand and emissions? • What about embedded carbon / exported emissions? • This was 2 years ago (!), what about last year or this year? • The inventory alone cannot answer these questions! additional data usually collected by NSOs

15. Why did emissions decline despite of increased electricity/heat generation? • Overall fuel use somewhat stable but emissions fell! • Less coal (101 tCO2/TJ) & liquid (77 tCO2/TJ). More gas (56 tCO2/TJ) & biomass (CO2 Memo) • Role of non carbon fuels (?) > Non-combustible fuels aren’t reported in GHG inventories Source: EEA

16. Total economy [Eurostat’s] energy balance: nuclear and renewables also played a significant role [and not just fossil fuels=inventory] Source: by EEA based on Eurostat’s energy balances

17. What is the share of household emissions, or transport? … on an UNFCCC-reporting basis, households/services look ‘too good’ … on an end-user basis [not UNFCCC!], the picture changes completely – this would not be possible without Eurostat’s energy statistics Source: EEA method. GHG emissions, EEA, Energy balances, Eurostat Source: EEA

18. GDP/recession, other factors? Difficult to explain reality without these factors Source: by EEA, based on Eurostat’s energy balances, national economic accounts and population statistics.

19. GHG inventories run on t-2 (not timely!): ‘competition’ with socio-economic data, ETS …. running on t-1 > EEA developed ‘proxy’ emission estimates in t-1 No apparent link (on average in the EU) Significantly warmer winter-months in 2011 (December 2010 very cold!)

20. 5. Summary/conclusions … own reflections • The EU National System would not function properly without the work of Eurostat [… and other NSOs in MS] • Eurostat’s current role in the EU NS is essential during compilation & review: • IPCC Reference Approach, Sectorial Approach, Energy Statistics Regulation [quality & consistency between energy balances and CRF activity data] • Eurostat’s future role in the EU NS can (should) also increase: • Capacity building to EU MS to improve the quality of the energy balances • Helping improving the consistency of ETS AD and the energy balances [e.g. legally ‘encouraging’ data sharing between agencies] • Provision of timely socio-economic data for trend analysis [GDP, population, heating degree days, cooling degree days …] • Verification of MS AD in all sectors reported in GHG inventories [i.e. third Party verification similar to the IPCC Reference Approach for energy] • Formalising institutional relations (NS) can provide certainty about the roles and responsibilities [& visibility] + NSOs in NS may also increase ‘public trust’ • The key objective remains good quality GHG inventories!

21. Thank you for your attention! ricardo.fernandez@eea.europa.eu