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Futures (Tense?)

Futures (Tense?). IFE 2020, Feb 25, Honolulu Dr. Scott MacLeod macleods@eastwestcenter.org Thanks to HRCFS. Some Introductions. You Sam APLP What? Who? Why? How? Leadership Today: Leadership, for What Purpose(s)? For the Future (our world’s, organization’s and student’s)

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Futures (Tense?)

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  1. Futures (Tense?) IFE 2020, Feb 25, Honolulu Dr. Scott MacLeod macleods@eastwestcenter.org Thanks to HRCFS

  2. Some Introductions • You • Sam • APLP • What? • Who? • Why? • How? • Leadership • Today: Leadership, for What Purpose(s)? • For the Future (our world’s, organization’s and student’s) • For Communities (our world’s, organization’s, student’s) Its about the questions

  3. Locating Our Focus Where will students use education? Is it on the test? (info and change) Where will you lead? Histories of the Future http://wholeearthfilms.com/ferguson_niall.html

  4. Outline • Seeing the FutureS • What Makes the Future? • Communicating Futures • Scenario Building

  5. Outline • Seeing the FutureS • What Makes the Future? • Communicating Futures • Scenario Building

  6. Seeing Futures 1.0 How Does It Look To You?

  7. Seeing Futures 2.0Horizon (3 scales) • Future as it emerges • The moment, “presence” • Tactics • Medium, Planning • Strategy • Longer, imaginable • What Could Be (Novelties) • Futurists (25-50 Years, lets say 2040)(1981-2008) What has changed? • What has happened to the future? • Where should education focus? At What Scale?

  8. Why the Far Future? • Learning from the Far Future? • A tool for helping us think • Asking right questions • Preparing for crises (change) • Benefits of many voices • Forecasting alternative futures • Futurists can not predict the future. • Inventing preferred futures • Lifelong Active Learning

  9. Seeing Futures 3.0 Dator’s Second Law “Any useful Idea about the future must appear to be ridiculous”

  10. The Future Walks Among Us Create one ‘ridiculous’ idea about the future, 30 years from now.

  11. Outline • Seeing the FutureS • What Elements Make the Future? • Communicating Futures • Scenario Building

  12. Your Call What Elements Make the Future? Primary Sources of Change…

  13. What Are We Looking At? • ContinuationsThings that have long existed, may change but core is the same (e.g., capitalism, electricity) • Cycles Come and Go. (e.g., Peak Oil, Housing Boom) • Novelties Never before experienced by humans Not in past or present, will be in futures (?)

  14. COMPONENTS OF FUTURES1. Continuities ??%2. Cycles ??%3. Novelties ??%Total 100% Has this changed? Where do we need to focus?

  15. Identifying and Communicating Futures:Building Scenarios Data Dimensions Narratives

  16. Seeing Futures 3.0 Where?

  17. Emerging Patterns: The IFE 4 • Trends • Emerging Issues • Risks/Opportunities • Complexity/Surprise • Difference • Inter-dependency • Non-Linear Change

  18. Risks • Scaling Risks • Likelihood X Impact (costs, lives, others?) • X Vulnerability • X Actionability • X ‘Knock on Effects’

  19. Data “Numbers don’t lie” – This approach emphasizes trends (beware!) See below. Often this approach uses High Low Estimates etc (as above right) Data Illustrate Bias

  20. DimensionsModel below is looking at China’s future. It creates four alternative outcomes

  21. Narratives • Why? – people see the world this way. • Evokes coherence, can tap emotions and other triggers. • Can capture the inter-connected nature of risks and events (i.e. networks structure) • Can bring together disparate elements.

  22. Education and Context Scenario BuildWhat Variables? For You, What Drives Social /Educational Change (Mostly)? Within this area what is the key dynamic of change? What are the ‘ends’ of a continuum which might describe future developments?

  23. Presenting Some Futures

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