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Patriot Capital, LLC. University of Connecticut Fund Overview. Friday, August 22, 2014. Brian H. Dobson | (203) 613-1210 | Brian .Dobson@UConn.edu William Luby | (917) 887-9082 | William.Luby@UConn.edu Olukayode David Koleosho | (281) 788-2813 | Olukayode.Koleosho @UConn.edu
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Patriot Capital, LLC. University of Connecticut Fund Overview Friday, August 22, 2014 Brian H. Dobson | (203) 613-1210 | Brian.Dobson@UConn.edu William Luby | (917) 887-9082 | William.Luby@UConn.edu Olukayode David Koleosho | (281) 788-2813 | Olukayode.Koleosho@UConn.edu Ramkrishna Javalkar| (404) 200-2178 | Ramkrishna.Javalkar@UConn.edu Kenneth Gustaitis| (203) 217-1703 | Kenneth.Gustaitis@UConn.edu
Overview • Patriot Overview • Investment Philosophy • Industry Thesis • Ratings Summary • Valuation • Industry Trends • Company Overviews
Patriot Capital Overview • Formed in 2005, Patriot Capital, LLC. is a leading wealth management institution. • Assets under management: $500 mln as of June 1, 2008 • Focused Group of 20 employees in research, trading, marketing, and IT, based in Stamford, Connecticut • We are a long/short fund focused on the Gaming, Lodging and Leisure sectors. • Fundamental Research • Patriot’s research analysts combine industry expertise with signature quantitative financial modeling, field-based research, and industry channel checking in order to drive business performance. • Our large information set and in depth research gives us a competitive advantage in the market compared to other managers. • Team members focus on the factors driving market activity, and are not guided by a pre-set coverage universe.
Investment Philosophy Philosophy Patriot Capital strives to provide the highest possible financial returns to our clients using original market analysis and risk management. To do this we invest in under-valued and over-valued U.S. equities. Target Returns We target returns of 15% per annum.
Investment Process: Approval Decision Making Tree
Risk Monitoring Committee Patriot Capital’s Risk Monitoring Committee • Six member committee of risk professions has regular bi-weekly meetings • Committee is formed of the Chief Risk Officer, Director of Research and the Head of Trading, with the balance made up of objective outside directors • In addition to regular meetings Patriot Capital LLC can call emergency meetings as market conditions require • We also have stop loss requirements.
Risk Monitoring Committee The RMC Team Dr. Norman Moore, Associate Professor, University of Connecticut Areas of Expertise: Corporate financial management, treasury management, financial engineering, value analysis, international corporate finance, and derivatives. Tim Nguyen, Investment Analyst, University of Connecticut Foundation Areas of Expertise: Treasury and alternative investment vehicles. Tracey Kreps CFA , Fund Manager, Equities, ICMA-RC Areas of Expertise: Asset allocation and portfolio risk Time Nguyen specializes in Treasury and alternative investment vehicles.
Risk • How do we manage risk? • We have explicit maximum position limits that cannot be surpassed • We use stop losses as a tool to manage/monitor downside risk • Gross long, gross short and net market exposure are constantly monitored • Patriot Capital has a limit on the amount of total leverage that can be employed • Liquidity levels are maintained to meet tenders and/or unforeseen market turmoil
Allocation Current Positions
Industry Thesis: Lodging • Current Industry Fundamentals • It is clear that the softening economy is having a negative impact on hotel demand • Cycle LTM occupancy peaked at 63.7% in 06/06. • The good news is that since then, LTM occupancy has only fallen 140 bps to 62.3% as of 06/2008. • LTM RevPAR growth also peaked in 06/2006, at 9.4%. Current LTM RevPAR growth is 3.7%. • Low supply growth has been the mitigating factor. LTM supply is only up 1.9%. • Weak dollar boosting inbound international travel, helping to offset any domestic softness. • Given pipeline and credit markets, supply not likely to accelerate past 2% any time soon. • Low supply should temper any downturn. In past downturns, high supply compounded ills. • Valuation • Multiples appear to have overshot to the downside. • Relative to the 10-year treasury, hotel stocks are trading at spreads not seen since 3Q01.
Timeshare Overview – Three Distinct Businesses Exhibit 1. Distribution of a $1 in Timeshare Revenues • Develop and Sell Intervals • Plan, finance, and build common areas and accommodation units. • Typically, each unit is divided into 50 weeks (2 are reserved for maintenance) and then marketed and sold. Over time, title passes from developer to timeshare owners. • After infrastructure is developed (lobby, pools, etc.), unit construction is phased to match demand levels. • Profit is net of selling price less cost of land, construction, marketing, and overhead. Timing skews cash outflow to project’s early phases and inflows to later phases, distorting return characteristics. • Finance Purchase of Intervals • Most buyers finance their purchase through developer, making a small down payment (10%) and borrowing the rest. • Buyers focus on monthly cash outlay, not total cost, so interest rates on timeshare mortgages are closer to credit card rates than rates on primary mortgages or home equity loans. • Profit is spread between interest receivable (high) and developers cost of capital (low), with spreads ranging from 500-1,000 bps. Receivables are bundled and sold too. • Manage Resorts and Rental Pool • Developer usually manages resort, overseeing maintenance, housekeeping, F&B/recreation facilities, and finance/accounting. • Maintenance fees fund resort operations and management fee. Management fee equals 5-10% of cost to run resort. • Manager also runs rental pool to rent unsold or unused units on transient basis. Renting unsold units is pure profit to manager, while rental income from unused units is split with the unit’s owner. Exhibit 2. Timing of Cash Inflow/ Outflow in Typical Timeshare Project
Industry Thesis: Gaming • Las Vegas Strip Not Immune to Economic Trends • Near-term outlook is challenging, particularly for mid-market and lower-end properties given economic climate. • Strong international visitation, driven by a weak dollar, has helped mitigate some of the domestic slowdown. • High-end results mixed, but redo of Bellagio VIP space skews trend. Macau synergies becoming more apparent. • 2007’s merger mania is over as credit markets remain closed; keep an eye on sovereign wealth funds. • While the market still faces additional supply growth from the likes of City Center and Wynn Encore, current credit conditions have delayed notable projects, such as Echelon and MGM’s JV with Kerzner. • All Eyes Turn to Macau • Venetian opened last year and MGM Grand Macau opened in mid-December. This year will see minimal new supply additions as LVS’s Four Seasons on Cotai is the only scheduled 2008 opening. • Western operators have been successful in building market share with superior product. • The question is – by how much will new supply grow the market and can infrastructure handle growth. • Government is significantly invested in success of Macau and will pull out all stops to help growth. • Keeping an Eye on the Consumer • Housing, sub-prime, and gas prices weighing on consumer, as economy is in or near recession. • Economy, new competition, and recently instituted smoking bans have hurt gaming revenue in many markets. • Old adage that gaming is “recession-resistant,” not “recession-proof,” is clearly being put to the test. • Still on Sidelines in Gaming Equipment Sector • Negative factors: nadir of replacement cycle, limited jurisdictional growth, lower capex by highly leveraged newly private operators, delayed or cancelled projects, slowdown in gaming operations, and lower interest rates. • Big benefits of wide-scale server-based gaming rollouts still seem elusive. • While technology, jurisdiction growth, and new casinos are key drivers, beleaguered casinos don’t spend on slots. • WMS strong gaming platforms have offset the weak macro environment.
Industry Thesis: Cruiselines • Fundamentals Are Not As Bad As Many Expected • Commodities are beginning to show some signs of faltering and we think it’s time to revisit the cruise stocks. • Our proprietary research indicates that the bull run in commodities may be coming to an end. This is supported by sell side research. • We see the cruiselines as a “first derivative” and “second derivative” play on falling oil prices, compared to most other consumer discretionary businesses that we see as only “second derivative” plays. • Fundamentals Are Not As Bad As Many Expected • After challenges in 2006 and 2007, cruise industry fundamentals are looking better in 2008, as the performance of the cruiselines often decouples from the broader economy. • Cruise demand and pricing has proven surprisingly resilient given current economic concerns about housing, gas prices, inflation, employment, and other pressures . • Cruiselines represent an attractive and value-oriented vacation alternative for economically stressed U.S. consumers, however, declining consumer sentiment is having a negative impact on booking strength. That said, the cruiselines did a good job last year of booking more of this year’s inventory, so their capability to ride out this soft patch of bookings has been enhanced. While cruiselines are not recession proof; we believe they are recession resistant. • Capacity growth is lower in the Caribbean, where trends have been softer, and higher in Europe where trends have been stronger.
Cruiselines Long • Oil Prices • The charts to the right show the potential EPS accretion and stock appreciation for both RCL and CCL under various oil price and P/E scenarios. • While the correlation is not perfect over time, for the purposes of this analysis, we assume the cost of bunker fuel and MGO increase or decrease proportionally with WTI. We hold all other variables (yield assumptions, operating expense, interest, D&A, etc.) constant, and then calculate what our 3Q08, 4Q08, 2008, and 2009 estimates would be under those various oil price scenarios. • For CCL, we use a straight percentage change. For RCL, we use the sensitivity benchmarks the company provides about the potential change in fuel expense given a $10 change in WTI. Using this method for RCL helps us capture the impact of its hedges. CCL does not hedge, so just using the changes in the spot price of WTI should capture changes in its fuel expense. Carnival Fuel Sensitivity Royal Caribbean Fuel Sensitivity
Lodging Wyndham Worldwide • Three business segments: lodging, vacation exchange and rental, and vacation ownership. • Lodging business is mostly franchising with small, but growing management business. Key drivers are RevPAR and unit growth. • Vacation exchange and rental operates RCI timeshare exchange network and serves as rental agent for third-party owned vacation properties, mostly in Europe. Key drivers are RCI membership, dues and exchange fees per member, rental transactions, and average rental prices. • Vacation ownership is developing, selling, financing, and managing timeshare resorts. Key drivers are tour volume and volume per guest. • Lodging/timeshare peers, CHH, MAR, and HOT, trade between 6.6-8.3x 2009 EBITDA. Timeshare comps SVLF and BXG trade at 5-6x EBITDA. BXG was recently purchased at 8.0x LTM EBITDA. • Using 7.5x for lodging, 7.0x for vacation exchange and rental, and 6.0x for timeshare, we get $30 target price, 63% above current levels. Figure 1. SOTP Analysis Figure 2. Implied Multiple SOTP Analysis
Questions? • Q&A