Agenda, FUTURE Joint-AP meeting

2. Agenda, FUTURE Joint-AP meeting • Welcome and introduction • Presentation and discussion of current status of the FUTURE APs AICE, COVE, SOFE • Report from FUTURE Workshop, April 2011 • Status of new expert groups WG 26, WG 27, WG 28 • P/ICES cooperation (Review of P/ICES Study Group Report) • Cooperation with SCOR WG 137 (Report on the activities of SCOR WG 137) • Potential new groups • WG-FCCIFS/S-SICCME • S-HD • Modeling • Overall assessment of FUTURE Progress (Where do we stand? How do we advance? What are the major challenges?) • FUTURE inter-sessional workshop in 2012 • FUTURE website and communication issues • Proposed topic sessions related to FUTURE for 2012 • FUTURE OSM in 2013? • Other business

3. Progress in 2010-2011 • Indicator WS • New WG formed • WG 26, 27, 28 • Proposals of new sections are prepared for approval • S-SICCME • S-HD

4. Measure of FUTURE progress • Working bodies (Expert groups) to tackle key issues/methodologies • Effectiveness of working bodies • Connections, adjustment, coordination among expert groups and APs • New scientific findings/understanding • Products (status, outlook, forecast) • Engagement with users • Timely advancement

5. FUTURE Objectives Objective 1 (scientific understanding) • Answer the three key scientific questions Objective 2. Status Reports, Outlooks, Forecasts and Engagement • The production of Status Reports, Outlooks and Forecasts. • Engagement: • Establish Dialogs with Recipients of Potential FUTURE Products • Communicate with clients

6. Scientific questions of FUTURE • Objective 1: Understanding Critical Processes in the North Pacific • What determines an ecosystem’s intrinsic resilience and vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic forcing? • (2) How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing, and how might they change in the future? • (3) How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how are societies affected by changes in these ecosystems? • Objective 2: Status Reports, Outlooks, Forecasts, and Engagement

7. 1. What determines an ecosystem’s intrinsic resilience and vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic forcing? 1.1. What are the important physical, chemical and biological processes that underlie the structure and function of ecosystems? (WG 21, 26, 27, 28, SICCME) 1.2. How might changing physical, chemical and biological processes cause alterations to ecosystem structure and function? (WG 21, 26, 27, 28, SICCME) 1.3. How do changes in ecosystem structure affect the relationships between ecosystem components? (WG 21, 26, 27, 28, SICCME) 1.4. How might changes in ecosystem structure and function affect an ecosystem’s resilience or vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic forcing? () 1.5. What thresholds, buffers and amplifiers are associated with maintaining ecosystem resilience? () 1.6. What do the answers to the above sub-questions imply about the ability to predict future states of ecosystems and how they might respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing? (SICCME)

8. 2. How do ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic forcing, and how might they change in the future? 2.1. How has the important physical, chemical and biological processes changed, how are they changing, and how might they change as a result of climate change and human activities? (WG 27, 28, SICCME) 2.2. What factors might be mediating changes in the physical, chemical and biological processes? (WG 21, 27, 28, SICCME) 2.3. How does physical forcing, including climate variability and climate change, affect the processes underlying ecosystem structure and function? (WG 27, 28, SICCME) 2.4. How do human uses of marine resources affect the processes underlying ecosystem structure and function? (SICCME, S-HD) 2.5. How are human uses of marine resources affected by changes in ecosystem structure and function? (SICCME, S-HD) 2.6. How can understanding of these ecosystem processes and relationships, as addressed in the preceding sub-questions, be used to forecast ecosystem response? (SICCME) 2.7. What are the consequences of projected climate changes for the ecosystems and their goods and services? (SICCME)

9. 3. How do human activities affect coastal ecosystems and how are societies affected by changes in these ecosystems? 3.1. What are the dominant anthropogenic pressures in coastal marine ecosystems and how are they changing? (WG 26, 28) 3.2. How are these anthropogenic pressures and climate forcings, including sea level rise, affecting nearshore and coastal ecosystems and their interactions with offshore and terrestrial systems? (WG 28) 3.3. How do multiple anthropogenic stressors interact to alter the structure and function of the systems, and what are the cumulative effects? (WG 28) 3.4. What will be the consequences of projected coastal ecosystem changes and what is the predictability and uncertainty of forecasted changes? ( ) 3.5. How can we effectively use our understanding of coastal ecosystem processes and mechanisms to identify the nature and causes of ecosystem changes and to develop strategies for sustainable use? (HD)

10. 3 options for IS FUTURE WS • Focusing on a specific issue • e.g., Indicator WS • Thorough review of FUTURE • Mixed • 1 day for modeling • 1 day for SSIME • 1 day for HD • 1-2 day to review of FUTURE coordination

11. FUTURE OSM • By 2013, FUTURE will be nearing its mid-life, a time to show its early achievement, and to make adjustment in implementation. • New Expert Groups • WG 26, 27, 28, S-SICCME, S-HD • Time: ISB 2013 or Summer 2013 • Venue: ??

12. Timeline for OSM • Themes and topics (ISB, 2012) • Announcement (May, 2012) • Abstract due (Nov, 2012) • OSM (ISB, 2013)