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Integrating Renewable Electricity on the Grid

Integrating Renewable Electricity on the Grid. A Study by the Panel On Public Affairs. George Crabtree (ANL/UIC) and Jim Misewich (BNL) Co-chairs

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Integrating Renewable Electricity on the Grid

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  1. Integrating Renewable Electricity on the Grid A Study by the Panel On Public Affairs George Crabtree (ANL/UIC) and Jim Misewich (BNL) Co-chairs Ron Ambrosio (IBM), Kathryn Clay (Auto Alliance), Paul DeMartini (Southern California Edison), Revis James (EPRI), Mark Lauby (NERC), Vivek Mohta (MA Dept of Energy Resources), John Moura (FERC), Peter Sauer (UIUC), Humayun Tai (McKinsey), Kris Larsen (APS), Jodi Lieberman (APS), Francis Slakey (APS)

  2. Outline • Resource and penetration • Renewable Portfolio Standards • Challenges and recommended responses • variability • storage • transmission • Balkanized ownership and regulation Renewables require a nationally coherent electricity grid

  3. December 2010 November 16, 2010 http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/upload/integratingelec.pdf www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/201012/backpage.cfm

  4. Abundant Wind and Solar Resources Wind Resource Concentrating Solar Power – Direct Sun State Available Resource Area Potential (mi2) (GW) Arizona 19,300 2,468 California 6,900 877 Colorado 2,100 272 Nevada 5,600 715 New Mexico 15,200 1,940 Texas 1,200 149 Utah 3,600 456 Total 53,900 6,877 Mehos and Kearney (2007) PV Solar Resource – Indirect Sun Roof area ~ 6B m2 ~ 600 GW Urban footprint ~ 3% of land ~ 2300 GW Solar Technologies Market Report EERE (2008) 2009 electricity use ~ 450 GW (ave) ~ 1000 GW (peak) 2030 projection ~ 660 GW (ave) Black and Veatch (2007) wind and solar resources far exceed RPS 4

  5. US Has Unusual Solar Resources Equivalent to Spain but bigger Much better than Germany, considered a solar leader Solar Technologies Market Report EERE 2008 Solar insolation large and varies by only ~ factor of 2 over US Larger land area than most countries

  6. Installed Wind and Solar Capacity 36 32 26 Wind and Solar Electricity Cumulative Installed Capacity 22 GW 18 14 wind 10 • Largest Solar Thermal Electric Plant • SEGS Mojave Desert (CA) 354 MW • Ivanpah Mojave Desert (CA) 400 MW • (under construction) • Todd Woody, NYT 10-28-10 • Largest PV Electric Plants • DeSoto (FL) 25 MW • Sarni (Canada) 80MW • Finsterwald (Germany) 80 MW 6 solar 2 2009 1980 1990 2000 wind exceeds solar in installed capacity solar poised for rapid growth 6

  7. Renewable Portfolio Standards 30 states and DC have RPS typically 20% renewable power by 2020 or 2030 most aggressive: CA - 33% by 2020 NY – 30% by 2015 • Drivers for RPS • reduced carbon emission • encourage alternative energy • prepare for electrification of transportation • replace foreign oil with renewable electricity • jobs and economic growth http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/othr-mkts/renew/othr-rnw-eeps.pdf

  8. The Balkanized Grid By Regulation By Function By Ownership 3100 Utilities Investor 7%, Public 63%, Coop 30% Investor 66% Federal 14% Public 7% Cooperative 8% Generation Transmission >138 kV Distribution <138 kV Load Investor 38% Federal 7% Public 14% Non-utility 41% Local utilities Customers Scale $250B+ Revenue $800B+ Assets 130 Balancing Authorities: 100 MW - 100 GW Mason Willrich, Electricity Transmission Policy for America, MIT IPC 09-003 (2009)

  9. Variability Xcel Wind Farm, Minnesota 1.5 GW Wind in 10 GW Peak System Load 6 Solar PV 4 3 GW Load - Wind 2 MW 2 Wind 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Minutes since start of day Day Load variability: 30% - 50% of peak predictable to a few percent Wind variability: up to 100% of capacity on calm days Solar variability: up to 70% of capacity due to clouds 250 750 1250 Generation variability < load variability: compensate ~ with existing reserves Generation variability > load variability requires new reserves ~ renewable capacity High penetration requires high reserves 20% Wind Energy by 2030, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE/GO-102008-2567 (2008)

  10. Forecasting Alberta Electric System Operator Forecasting Pilot Project 24 hours beginning Midnight Apr 14, 2008 400 300 Forecasts disagree by 50% to factor of 20 Wind shifts from lowest to highest in 3 hrs MW 200 100 1 Improve accuracy by enlarging forecast area 16:00 8:00 0:00 20:00 12:00 24:00 4:00 0.8 Actual Wind Fcst 1 Fcst 2 Fcst 3 Confidence level as important as accuracy Low confidence level  higher reserves 0.6 σensemble/σsingle 0.4 0.2 Improve accuracy and confidence level of forecasts Uniform standards for preparing and delivering forecasts 0 1000 0 500 1500 2000 Region size (km)

  11. Responding to Weather 120 Power Curve of Typical Wind Turbine Operating Procedures standard responses to generation up-ramp at low load generation down-ramp at peak load contingency usual: loss of largest generator renewable: no “largest generator” 80 output ceases Fraction of rated output (%) 40 20% error in wind speed (2 m/s) = 41% error in power output 0 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 6 20 22 24 4 Wind speed (m/s) • thresholds: start-up: 3 m/s curtailment: 25 m/s • output depends on • air density  temperature, humidity • local topography  local air flows Better translation of wind speed to power generation Develop and codify operational responses to forecasts Define contingencies and response plan

  12. Energy Storage • Issues • Placing storage in the balkanized grid • generation, transmission or load? • value spans many regions and utilities • Lack of regulatory context • how will investment be treated? • how will costs be recovered? • how will value be assigned? • Requirements differ from portable storage • low energy density acceptable • ambient conditions controllable • high capacity, long charge/discharge times • Motivations • Address serious renewable variability challenges • High wind in load valley • Lull at load peak • High renewable penetration • Additional reserves ~ additional renewable capacity • Level load variability • Reduce transmission congestion

  13. Energy Storage Options Okinawa Seawater Pumped Storage Compressed Air Energy Storage Huntorf Germany (290 MW), McIntosh Alabama (110 MW) Sodium Sulfur batteries at Wind Farm Xcel Energy, Luverne, MN Molten salt thermal storage Andasol, Spain http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-to-use-solar-energy-at-night Conventional batteries: Lead acid Southern California Edison Chino facility (10 MW, 4 hr) Flow batteries DOE: develop an overall strategy for storage options, regulatory guidance, value for generation and transmission DOE: conduct technological review of battery chemistries DOE: increase R&D in basic electrochemistry

  14. Transmission Wind Demand Sun Fragmented US transmission network Geographical separation of renewable sources from demand centers Balkanized transmission network designed for local or regional use Historically low investment in transmission Need an interstate highway system for electricity

  15. Long Distance Transmission • DC over AC for greater than few hundred miles • High voltage to reduce resistive loss • Xiangjiaba, Shanghai: • 6 GW @ 800kV, 2000 km • High voltage AC-DC-AC conversion • semiconductor power electronics • biggest technical and cost challenge • single point of origin / termination Superconductor Electricity Pipeline AC/DC Converter Stations Wind Solar o o Superconducting DC transmission no resistive loss  high voltage unnecessary low voltage enables AC-DC conversion network of DC lines Value Long distance delivery of renewable power Balance renewable power with distant load Marginal Fair Good Excellent Outstanding Superb DOE: extend R&D on high temperature superconductivity for at least ten years DOE: additional resources for R&D on semiconductor power electronics

  16. Business Case • Fragmentation of the grid within regulatory, financial and technical boundaries hides full value of renewable projects • Renewables span traditional boundaries and drive a unified perspective • Value lost by “thinking inside the boundaries” • Transmission needed to import/export renewable generation • Leveling by storage located outside the boundaries • Reduced transmission congestion due to storage • Balancing distant generation and load through transmission • Advantages of unified evaluation of renewable projects • Captures full value of project • Aligns broader set of stakeholders • Creates fact-base and procedures for future use • Develops integrated picture to enhance capabilities of the grid

  17. Business Case Recommendations FERC and NERC: develop an integrated business case that captures the full value of renewable generation and electricity storage FERC and NERC: work with the state Public Utility Commissions to adopt a uniform integrated business case as the national standard evaluation and regulatory structure

  18. Perspective Balkanized grid needs unified strategic and regulatory framework Balancing renewable variability with reserves is effective up to load variability Forecasting renewable power generation must improve to lower reserve requirements Many storage options, little experience: overall strategy needed for technology and regulation Conventional and flow batteries are key opportunity: more basic electrochemistry R&D Need an interstate highway system for electricity: superconducting DC transmission AC-DC conversion is technical and cost challenge: more R&D on wide bandgap semiconductor power electronics Regulatory and financial evaluation must capture full value of renewables, e.g., storage and transmission

  19. Further Opportunities • Technology issues • Smart grid interacting with customers: potential for demand management • Smart grid interacting with transmission: regional load balancing • Managing renewable variability at high penetration: reserves, storage, demand management and transmission • Policy, regulation and business issues • Quantify the local value of external storage and transmission • Assign cost and cost recovery across functional, ownership and regulatory boundaries to drive “one grid” • Coordinate DOE R&D on electricity across Office of Electricity, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

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