Commerce and Transportation (C&T) Synthesis and Future Directions

1. Commerce and Transportation (C&T) Synthesis and Future Directions Presented by Pablo Clemente-Colón

2. C&T Highlights & Threadsfrom presentations & posters • Science Challenges • Sensor/Data Limitations • The resolution and accuracy of products is limited by sensor calibration, observing capabilities, and physical constraints (ex., gravity-depth non-linearity). • How can multi-polarization and multi-frequency SAR imagery improve accuracy of oils spills (with minimum false alarms), hard targets, and sea ice algorithms and analysis? • Difficulty in separating atmospheric & surface effects on surface solar radiation estimates over snow. • Validation Data • The availability of in-situ data for validation and algorithm training (sufficient ground and airborne observations, processing, data management, etc.) is a major issue. • How can satellite data products be used to validate and improve forecasts of ash cloud dispersion given the lack of in-situ observations? • Visibility retrievals are still affected by PBL height uncertainties, inhomogeneous distributions of aerosols, and aerosol layers in the free troposphere. • Need to validate the use of remote sensing and model data to effectively support the detection, beaching prediction, and removal of marine debris. • Model Improvements • Improvements on wide temporal and spatial sea ice forecast scales are required. • Present models are not capable of predicting extreme winds or sea ice changes. • Can predictability of severe convective storm winds, and lead time and accuracy of severe weather warnings be significantly improved? • Robust parameterization of wind change from surface observations through the boundary layer, i.e., better model assimilation of surface winds, is needed.

3. C&T Highlights & Threadsfrom presentations & posters • Research Needs • New techniques, methodologies, and algorithm refinements to improve retrievals • Improve assimilation of scatterometer data in NWS wind warning and forecast products • Test new algorithms against classified Navy/NGA surveys • Improvement of altimeter signal to noise ratio to increase bathymetry resolution • Develop automated combination of LEO/GEO global volcanic ash monitoring system • Research/Improvement of passive microwave ice concentrations and extent products. • In-Situ Observations and Validation • Increase sea ice thickness observations at required spatial and temporal scales • Effect of melting season on passive and active algorithms and analysis vs. actual observations. • Validation of new products (ex., the Debris Estimated Likelihood Index) • Get more in situ data! • Development of improved sea ice forecast models to support navigation as well as weather and climate.

4. Summary of C&T New Techniques and Technologies Improve the spatial resolution of the altimetry maps by "retracking" the radar returns from the sea surface. Test what new resolution may be obtained by the next-generation altimeters. Exploit multi-sensor and multi-satellite SAR data, including X-band SAR imagery. Pursue research and development of operational products from international scatterometer missions. Implement and Experimental Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) for GOES-R. Development a downburst potential nowcasting technique that employs Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model data and radar reflectivity imagery. Refine the Principal Component GOES Imagery analysis for volcanic ash detection. Develop a fog/low cloud component of the ABI visibility algorithm. Develop an operational version of TCNNA oil spill mapping tool, and train with all available SAR data types. Refine the DELI approach that shows likelihood of encountering debris based on satellite ocean color and sea surface temperature measurements. Improve surface solar radiation retrieval from GOES over snow. Investigate the use of new technologies such as UAS, EMI, etc. Future Directions, Challenges, and Opportunities - I

5. Future Directions, Challenges, and Opportunities - II • C&T Research to Operations Activities • Development, testing, demonstration, feedback, and transitioning new STAR products from research to operations is done in coordination or trough channels such as the SPSRB and algorithm teams. • MWPI to be provided to National Weather Service (NWS), Dept. of Defense (DOD), and private sector meteorologists • The AVHRR component of the volcanic ash system is scheduled to be fully transitioned into NESDIS operations by May/June 2010 • Real time access to the GOES volcanic ash product will be provided to users for feedback into initial operations in Alaska. • The Canadian Ice Service interactive oil spill analysis system will be implemented in NESDIS operations. • The oil spill mapping tool, SAR wind speed measurements, and vessel detection products will be integrated into the oil spill analysis system. • Continue use of Internet, Google, etc. for dissemination to the public and end users. • Support the development of navigation products as ENC/DNC chart overlays. • Work with partners, users, and stakeholders on requirements for products and future missions sensors. • Engage in field campaigns; Science and Cal/Val opportunities. • Should always strive to communicate satellite uses and limitations.

6. Future Directions, Challenges, and Opportunities - III • High priority missions, observing systems and technologies • NOAA Missions • GOES-R – Imager & Sounder • NPP/JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System, formerly NPOESS) – VIS, IR, and MW RAD • International Missions (Access to International Operational Data is Required) • OceanSat-2 – Ku-band SCAT • HY-2 – Ku-band SCAT, Ku & C-band ALT, MW RAD • GCOM-W – MW RAD, Ku-band SCAT • CryoSat-2 – Ku-band ALT • AltiKa – Ka-band ALT • RISAT – C-band SAR • Sentinel-1 - C-band SAR • RCM - C-band SAR • Decadal Survey Missions • ICESat-II – Laser ALT • DesDynI – L-band InSAR& Laser ALT • SWOT – Ka and C-band ALT

7. New NOAA Arctic Priority New NOAA Arctic Action Plan State of the Arctic Conference NOAA Sea Ice Forecasting Workshop STAR presence at NIC Canadian Collaborations (NAIS, PCW) International Collaborations (IABP, IICWG) Opening routes and energy development Need for increased and improved ocean and marine weather observations and forecast! Socio-Economic/Human Dimensions Understanding the human dimensions (social, cultural, and economic) of impacts of “ disasters” and response activities [Identified by NOAA as a high priority for research] CoastWatch – operational surface winds, waves, spills, ship detection, flooding, and coast line change monitoring Protection of People & the Environment, and Decision Support SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and SAR (Search and Rescue) C&T External Engagement & Partnerships Cross-NOAA collaborations (NWS, OAR, NOS, NMFS) Academic (JHU/APL, UW, U Col., UAF, UDEL, FSU, UCAR) Inter-Agency collaborations(Navy, NGA, CRREL, NASA, NSF, USCG, DOE) International Collaboration / Initiatives (ESA, CSA JAXA, NAIS, IICWG, WMO, ISRO) Future Directions, Challenges, and Opportunities - IV