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US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030

US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030 . Introduction to EE 551 January 12, 2009. James D. McCalley Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering. Outline. Electric industry overview What is a wind plant? Problems with wind; potential solutions Other technology options

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US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030

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  1. US Wind Energy Growth: Issues for 20% by 2030 Introduction to EE 551 January 12, 2009 James D. McCalley Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering

  2. Outline Electric industry overview What is a wind plant? Problems with wind; potential solutions Other technology options National investment planning Conclusions

  3. 1. Electric Industry Overview: Organizational Structure (N. America) • Investor-owned utilities: 239 (MEC, Alliant, Xcel, Exelon, …) • Federally-owned: 10 (TVA, BPA, WAPA, SEPA, APA, SWPA…) • Public-owned: 2009 (Ames, Cedar Falls, Dairyland, CIPCO…) • Non-utility power producers: 1934(Alcoa, DuPont,…) • Power marketers: 400 (e.g., Cinergy, Mirant, Illinova, Shell Energy, PECO-Power Team, Williams Energy,…) • Coordination organizations: 10 (ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, MISO, SPP, ERCOT, CAISO, AESO, NBSO) • Oversight organizations: • Regulatory: 52 state, 1 Fed (FERC) • Reliability: 1 National (NERC), 8 regional entities • Others: Manufacturers, vendors, govt agencies, professional & advocacy organizations…

  4. 1. Electric Industry Overview: Existing resource mix; Retail Prices

  5. 1. Electric Industry Overview: Legislative Landscape • Carbon policy: • Obama admin favors cap ‘n trade • Existing models: SO2, RGGI ($3.5/ton), EU • Coal plnt: $3.50/ton×0.925tons/MWhr=$3.2/MWhr=0.3¢/kWhr • Subsidies: • Fed PTC, REPI (must have renewals - last done 10/08), 2¢/kWhr • State PTC (IA: 1.5¢/kWhr, small wind, UT, OK), sales/prop tax red • Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) • 32 states, differing in % (10-30), timing (latest is 2025), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind) • Building transmission • Multi-state transmission is very difficult • FERC’s authority - national interest corridors • Alternative: >3 states band (Uppr Mdwst Trns Dvlpmnt Initiative)

  6. 1. Electric Industry Overview: Predicted (US EIA, NEMS); May ’07

  7. 1. Electric Industry Overview: 20% by 2030 • 5/08: www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/ • The report identifies what this future looks like

  8. 2. What is a wind plant? Overview

  9. 2. What is a wind plant? Tower & Blades Weight (Vestas 1.65MW) Nacelle: 57 s-tons Rotor: 47 s-tons Tower: 138 s-tons

  10. 2. What is a wind plant? Electric Generator Type 1 Conventional Induction Generator (fixed speed) Type 2 Wound-rotor Induction Generator w/variable rotor resistance Type 3 Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (variable speed) Type 4 Full-converter interface Plant Feeders ac dc generator to to dc ac full power

  11. 2. What is a wind plant? Type 3 Doubly Fed Induction Generator • Most common technology today • Provides variable speed via rotor freq control • Converter rating only 1/3 of full power rating • Eliminates wind gust-induced power spikes • More efficient over wide wind speed • Provides voltage control

  12. 2. What is a wind plant? Collector Circuit • Distribution system, often 34.5 kV

  13. 2. What is a wind plant? Offshore • About 600 GW available 5-50 mile range • About 50 GW available in <30m water • Installed cost ~$2500/MW; uncertain because US cont. shelf deeper than N. Sea

  14. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Cost

  15. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Cost •$1050/kW capital cost • 34% capacity factor • 50-50 capital structure • 7% debt cost; 12.2% eqty rtrn • 20-year depreciation life • $25,000 annual O & M per MW 20-year levlzd cost=5¢/kWhr • Existing coal: <2.5¢/kWhr • Existing Nuclear: <3.0¢/kWhr • New gas combined cycle: >6.0¢/kWhr • New gas combustion turbine: >10¢/kWhr • Solution: • Cost of wind reduces as tower height increases • Tower designs, nacelle weight reduction, innovative constructn • Carbon cost makes wind good (best?) option

  16. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Day-ahead forecast uncertainty • Fossil-generation is planned day-ahead • Fossil costs minimized if real time same as plan • Wind increases day-ahead forecast uncertainty • Solutions: • Pay increased fossil costs from fossil energy displaced by wind • Use fast ramping gen • Distribute wind gen widely • Improve forecasting • Smooth wind plant output • On-site regulation gen • Storage

  17. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Daily, annual wind peak antiphase w/load • Daily wind peaks may occur at night • Annual wind peaks may occur in winter • Solutions: • “Spill” wind • Shift loads in time • Storage • Pumped storage • Pluggable hybrid vehicles • Batteries • H2, NH3 with fuel cell • Compressed air • …others Midwestern Region

  18. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers

  19. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers $60 billion AEP plan Build transmission!

  20. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers $80 billion JCSP plan Build transmission!

  21. 3. Problems with wind; potential solutions Wind is remote from load centers Transmission cost: a small fraction of total investment & operating costs. • …And it can pay for itself: • Assume $80B provides 20,000 MW delivery system over 30 years, 70% capacity factor, for Midwest wind energy to east coast. • This adds $21/MWh. • Cost of Midwest energy is $65/MWh. • Delivered cost of energy would then be $86/MWh. • East coast cost is $110/MWh.

  22. 4. Other technology options • Energy sources • Natural gas, clean coal, nuclear, biomass, biofuel, solar, deep geothermal, ocean, off-shore wind • Small generation and demand side control • Other carrier technologies • pipeline (natural gas, liquid fuel) , rail/highway, H2, NH3 At 810 Gw load, 1.5% growth, we need 660 Gw over next 40 years. What do we invest in? Observation: some energy sources are more economic in certain regions than others….

  23. 4. Other technology options GEOTHERMAL SOLAR CLEAN-FOSSIL But how much of each, & how to interconnect? NUCLEAR BIOMASS Wind

  24. 5. National investment planning • A new level of energy planning • All energy forms can be used in electric or in transportation • Solution space is temporal (40 yrs), spatial (nation), and … • Multiobjective: • Min cost, max sustainability, max resiliency • Appropriate tools do not exist today • Approach: Very fast multiobjective optimization • Network flow modeling • Decomposition methods • High-performance computing

  25. Conclusions • Greenhouse gas has made energy top US priority, and Obama administration is poised to act • Energy and transportation infrastructure are capital intensive and very long-lifed • An intense need for infrastructure planning tools • No silver bullet; no technology should be zeroed • But wind clearly has a large role to play • Must address variability, antiphase peaks, and transmission needs • Iowa well located to play major role in this work

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