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The Future of the International System

The Future of the International System. Trends and Transformations?. Unipolarity: Can it Last? New Cold War Multipolarity Joint Leadership Globalization: Interdependence Rapid Change and Instability Decline of Nation-State Power Challenging States Wild Cards. 1. Unipolarity.

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The Future of the International System

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  1. The Future of the International System

  2. Trends and Transformations? • Unipolarity: Can it Last? • New Cold War • Multipolarity • Joint Leadership • Globalization: Interdependence • Rapid Change and Instability • Decline of Nation-State Power • Challenging States • Wild Cards

  3. 1. Unipolarity • Can it Last? • It never has before

  4. US Wealth See When Will China Become a Major Player in Solar? Dave Cavanaugh — September 28, 2010 http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/articles/when-will-china-become-a-major-player-in-solar

  5. Defense Spending by Nation

  6. Global Military Spending SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010

  7. Can Unipolarity Last?

  8. China’s Growing Wealth

  9. Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

  10. 2. New Cold War • One nation catches up to the US • Rising Challenger • Declining hegemon

  11. US vs. China President Obama and President Hu (2010)

  12. Great Power Challenges • Rival Power • Ideology • One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy

  13. 3. Multipolarity • Many nations catch up to the US • The US falls back to the pack

  14. A Multipolar System USA Russia Japan EUBrazil ChinaIndia

  15. Or Another Bipolar System US IndiaRussiaChina

  16. 4. Joint Leadership G-20

  17. 5. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

  18. Welcome to China

  19. Welcome to the US

  20. Welcome to New York

  21. 6. Rapid Change and Instability • The Process of democratization • Revolution • Tahrir Square, Cairo 2011

  22. 7. Decline of Nation-State Power The Nation-State System evolves • Governments weaken • Financial Flows that governments can’t control • Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against • Governments have lost the monopoly on violence , ideas, and communications

  23. A. Financial Flows that governments can’t control Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp

  24. US GDP Growth

  25. B. Organizations: AQAM Attacks 2001-2011

  26. Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html

  27. 8. Challenging States • Iranian power

  28. North Korean Ballistic Missile Ranges

  29. 9. Wild Cards • Climate Change • Energy • Food • Population • Over-urbanization • Migration • Technology: • Internet • Drones • Autonomous robots that enslave humans…

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