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Schaake ESP Post Adjust (Western Water Supply Homepage). Algorithm created by John Schaake at OH Schaake post adjust attempts to remove bias in ESP forecasts Bias incurred in calibration process Runs on monthly time-scale
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Schaake ESP Post Adjust(Western Water Supply Homepage) • Algorithm created by John Schaake at OH • Schaake post adjust attempts to remove bias in ESP forecasts • Bias incurred in calibration process • Runs on monthly time-scale • Transforms HS and OBS to distribution and derives correlation parameter • Transforms CS to distribution and uses Schaake shuffle and HS-OBS correlation to shift CS distribution maintaining distribution characteristics with the Schaake Shuffle
Upper Colorado • Looked at 4 points • HS-OBS very little significant bias • Schaake-adj showed small improvements • Schaake-adj did not adversely affect raw CS (majority of cases)
EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 March 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 April 1 ESP Re-forecasts
New Points • CREC1 – Smith River • CLDI1 – St Joe River • UCHA2 – Chena River
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly MCRPS: 1962-1998 January 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly MCRPS: 1962-1998 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 January 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 March 1 ESP Re-forecasts
EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 April 1 ESP Re-forecasts
Schaake Adj Future • John Lhotak has created a fairly robust python version • Could be adapted to run on all CS files sent by RFC (6hr,24hr,SQIN,QINE; HS issues) • Do we create Schaake-adj CS everywhere? • Can be run monthly or modified to run weekly; XEFS? • Are different products/time scales in the cards within the western water supply page? • XEFS/ John Schaake input