6th ECEN Assembly, Flämslätt, Sweden, 28-30 September 2006 Climate Change and Energy

1. 6th ECEN Assembly, Flämslätt, Sweden, 28-30 September 2006 Climate Change and Energy Trends and Projections André Jol Head of Group Climate Change and Energy European Environment Agency

2. Content • EEA background • Climate change impacts • Adaptation and mitigation strategies • Global emissions and pathways • Global energy system • Energy and greenhouse gases in Europe • Bio-energy potential in Europe • Conclusions

3. The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment European Environment Agency http://www.eea.eu.int Copenhagen, Denmark

4. The EEA is... • An independent information provider • An analyst and assessor • Building bridges between science and policy • Dependent upon strong networks to carry out its work • ...to support policy processes and inform the public

5. EEA member andcollaborating countries Member countries Collaboratingcountries

6. Climate change and its impacts

7. CO2 concentration and global temperature in the past 400 000 years (current CO2 conc is 380 ppm) Source: IPCC, 2001

8. Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to GHG emissions from human activities Source: IPCC, 2001

9. Global temperature increased by 0.7 °C over the past 100 years and is projected to be + 1.4–5.8 °C (1990-2100). The top 5 warmest years worldwide were: 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004 Source: IPCC, 2001

10. Risks of impacts increases with temperature (IPCC, 2001) Source: IPCC, 2001

11. Ocean acidification, ocean warming and sea level rise are also key concerns Acidification of oceans due to CO2 is an additional recently highlighted reason for substantial GHG emission reductions. A further increase in water temperatures, in combination with continuing acidification, will have major overall impacts on marine ecosystems and also on fisheries. Source: WBGU, 2006

12. Abrupt accelerated climate change is highly uncertain, but the impacts can be very large (example) Complete disintegration of the Greenland Ice and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would lead to +7 m and +5 m sea level rise (taking thousand or more years). A threshold for global temperature increase and the likelihood of these events are highly uncertain. Source: ACIA, 2004, Tyndall Centre, 2005

13. European summer temperature 2003 • Very likely that greenhouse gases have doubled the risk of summer temperatures as hot as 2003 • Such a heat wave is now four times more likely. By 2050 every other summer could be as hot as 2003 Sources: IPCC, WMO, CRU, Stott et. al. (in Nature, 2004)

14. Projected precipitation changes in 2080 • Average annual precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe (up to 25%) but decrease in southern Europe (up to 25%) • More frequent droughts and intense precipitation events are likely Source: Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2 scenario

15. River flooding events 1998-2005 • About 100 (river) floods: more than 700 fatalities, a million people affected and 25 billion EUR in insured economic losses Source: EEA, 2006

16. Coastal zones • Sea level is projected to rise for centuries (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100) • 9% of all European coastal zones is below 5 m elevation (85% for NL, BE), potentially vulnerable to sea level rise and related inundations • Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened • Future increase in storm frequency and intensity (uncertainties) Source: EEA, 2006

17. Water resources • Temperature rise and changing precipitation are likely to exacerbate the water shortage in southern and south-eastern Europe (increasing demand for irrigation in agriculture) and eastern Europe (increasing demand for households and industry) Source: Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001. Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, baseline scenario

18. Adaptation and mitigation strategies

19. Balancing mitigation and adaptation: “Avoiding the unmanageable, managing the unavoidable” • EU Council target of limiting global temperature increase to +2°C above pre-industrial levels needs global emission reduction of 15% up to 50% by 2050 (from 1990 levels) • Some global and European climate change is inevitable due to historical built up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and time lags in climate and ocean systems • EU Council recognised the need to prepare for and adapt to climate change in both developing and developed countries, to complement mitigation policies • Addressing climate change has costs, but also brings benefits and opportunities e.g. for innovation

20. Recent EU policy developments on adaptation • Biodiversity Communication mentions climate change • Green Paper “Towards a future Maritime Policy” and the Thematic Strategy for the marine environment mention climate change • Water Framework Directive implementation, initial discussions on adaptation to climate change • Flood Action Programme and proposed Directive, includes requirement for MS to assess climate change effects • European Climate Change Programme (ECCPII) working group on adaptation meetings and planned Commission Green Paper on Adaptation (Dec 2006) • However many EU policies do not yet address climate change impacts

21. Global CO2 emissions have increased substantially, especially since the 1950s Source: CDIAC, 2004

22. Growth in global CO2 emissions is expected especially in developing countries Source: World Energy Outlook, 2004 (IEA, 2004)

23. The EU proposed that developed countries would reduce total GHG emissions by 15-30% by 2020 and 60-80% by 2050 The EU target of max + 2 °C temperature increase requires at least stabilising at 550 ppm CO2–equivalent. Most likely a lower target is needed, e.g. 450 ppm. The latter would mean 80% emission reduction by 2050 for developed countries (from 1990 levels). However also other countries should limit increase or reduce emissions Source: EEA, 2005

24. Pathway towards 550 ppm CO2 eq or ca. 450 ppm CO2 Source: EEA, 2005

25. Facts & Trends IPCC Scenarios 1000 ppm °C 16 By 2050 we need to have reduced CO2 emissions by 6-7 GtC with 1.3 GtC reduced by 2025, compared with the "BAU" case. 14 6 - Global Carbon Emissions, GtC Further rises to 2300 2050 6-7 GtC reduction 12 5 - 550 ppm 10 4 - Facts & Trends 9 GtC world 450 ppm 8 3 - 2100 range WRE 1000 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 450 (IPCC) 6 2 - 4 13 2 1 - 2025 1.3 GtC reduction 11 1990 Global Carbon Emissions, GtC 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 9 BAU Pathways to 2050 7 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Pathways towards 550 ppm CO2 according to WBSCD Source: WBSCD

26. World energy system

27. World energy demand • global energy market is projected to grow by two-thirds over the next three decades, annual demand growth of 1.7% p.a. • Worldwide consumption of natural gas will almost double by 2030, overtaking that of coal within the next decade. Source: IEA, 2004

28. China and Asia’s energy demand will grow Source: IEA, 2004

29. We probably will not run out of resources by 2030, non-conventional oil becomes important Source: IEA, 2004

30. Increases in energy prices may lead to some reduction in demand and may make renewable energy more attractive, but is problematic especially for developing countries

31. World oil reserves and production Source: IEA, 2004

32. World gas production Source: IEA, 2004

33. Increasing global energy trade, an issue for energy security • non Middle-East oil production: peaks around 2030 • total world oil production peaks later (2050?). Source: IEA, 2004

34. Investment needs differ by region Source: IEA, 2005

35. Global investment needs • Total energy-supply infrastructure investment needs up to 2030: $16 trillion • The electricity sector dominates (60%), oil and gas sectors will be 19% • Total investment needs are 1% of global GDP • Russia’s investment requirement will be 5% of GDP, Africa’s 4%, much lower in OECD countries • More private sector involvement in developing countries will be required • The projected rate of growth in investment and supply projected still leaves 1.4 billion people without access to electricity in 2030 Opportunities to invest in sustainable energy Source: IEA, 2005

36. The need for a portfolio for achieving substantial global CO2 emission reductions • There is a substantial potential for energy savings and energy efficiency in all sectors (transport, industry, buildings) • In power and heat generation a combination of low carbon energy technologies is needed, including substantial increases in all renewable energy technologies and high-efficient natural gas plants • The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at a large scale may contribute, however further research and demonstration of the technology with manageable environmental and other risks is needed. Risks of CO2 storage in the ocean, i.e. in the water column and on the sea floor, are high • Nuclear might also contribute. However there is still no acceptable long term waste storage available, some risks of accidental radioactive releases remain, risk of possible use for nuclear weapons, costs estimates differ, long preparation and building time

37. Carbon capture and storage

38. The global potential for CCS is substantial

39. CO2 storage prospective

40. Maturity of CCS technology

41. EU China partnership on climate change • China relies for 70% of its energy consumption on coal. In 2004 China consumed some 34% of the coal used worldwide and generated 74% of the growth in world coal consumption. China wishes to reduce coal-related environmental pollution in cities. • EU cooperation with China includes: • Partnership to develop and demonstrate near zero emissions coal technology through carbon capture and storage • Action Plans on clean coal technologies and energy efficiency & renewable energy • Joint research projects in many areas

42. EU GHG emissions and energy trends

43. The EU15 will reach its Kyoto target (-8%) only with additional domestic measures and Kyoto mechanisms

44. Various EU15 MS are not on track to their Kyoto targets (2005 information)

45. EU-15 GHG emissions from transport are projected to increase further, emissions from other sectors decrease

46. EU-25 Energy consumption continues to grow, although energy intensity of the EU economy decreased by 15 %

47. Share of combined heat and power in electricity production in 2002 is low in many MS

48. Many EU-15 MS are not on track to their targets for electricity from renewable sources (in 2003) EU indicative targetof 12% by 2010 Scenario projections

49. Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions • EU CO2 emissions trading scheme • Electricity from renewable energy • Combined heat and power (CHP) • Energy efficiency (buildings, industry, household appliances, cars) • Biofuels in transport • Recovery of methane from landfills • Reduction of fluorinated gases • Remove potentially environmentally harmful subsidies • Research and development • Raise awareness

50. Conclusions towards a more sustainable EU energy system (1) • Environmental sustainability to be treated equal to energy security and competitiveness • Regulatory and economic framework that provides long-term price signals to investors and consumers including external costs (CO2 price) • Limit the growth of and ultimately reduce energy demand • Use the substantial potential for further energy savings and energy efficiency • Change consumer behaviour