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Management Confidential

Aviation Weather Friends and Partners. John Foottit Manager Aviation Weather Services Las Vegas, 13 Oct 2004. Management Confidential. 1. Integration and Display.

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Management Confidential

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  1. Aviation Weather Friends and Partners John Foottit Manager Aviation Weather Services Las Vegas, 13 Oct 2004 ManagementConfidential 1

  2. Integration and Display • Mentally integrating disparate bits of weather information into an accurate and coherent picture for a specific route and altitude of flight is difficult for many pilots. • Hence the need for a very effective but expensive network of Flight Service weather briefers. 2

  3. Integration and Display • Improve NWP models so that pilots can independently make most flight planning decisions and you have a strong business case for evolutionary change. • Hence Nav Canada’s investment in the Internet-based Automated Supplementary Enroute weather Prediction system (ASEP). 3

  4. Clear Air Turbulence

  5. Winds Aloft

  6. MSL Pressure

  7. Upper Air Temperature

  8. Which should eventually evolve into something more dynamic ...

  9. FL 250: 270 @ 40 / - 34 21,000/-26 MDT Rime Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000

  10. LGT Rime 600 BKN 3 miles + 7/ +5 Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000

  11. Integration and Display • The challenge is not only with the meteorological science, but with how to present information to the users so that it “speaks” to them. • For example, assuming that the aviation regulations can be changed to accommodate the use of probabilistic forecasts, how do we offer an intuitive display of such information? 11

  12. Evaluation • There are so many different flight planning requirements … • For example, in Canada, VFR is not always 1000 feet and 3 miles - it depends upon the type of aircraft, the airspace, the terrain, and whether it is day or night. 12

  13. Evaluation • If the users are to evaluate a forecast, we’re going to have to design flexible performance measurement systems that allow them to tailor the output to meet their requirements. • For example, Nav Canada’s current system only produces canned reports in the form of columns of numbers. 13

  14. Evaluation • Site specific data is also offered, but users cannot “pick out the signal from the noise”. • Indeed, only the statisticians recently noticed that Canadian TAF reliability has been “flat” for the past 7 years.

  15. Evaluation • Nav Canada is therefore working with the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) to create a relational performance measurement data base. • Air carriers will then be able to obtain graphic trend information concerning such site specific variables as the reliability of forecasts for flight planning No Alternate IFR. 15

  16. Evaluation • Clear, flexible forecast performance data should positively influence flight planning decisions, such as fuel upload (which affects fuel burn, which relates to greenhouse gas emissions). • This equation prompted Government environmental funding for 1/3 of the cost - we have partners we didn’t know about. 16

  17. Questions? John FoottitManagerAviation Weather Services613-563-5603foottij@navcanada.cawww.navcanada.ca 17

  18. Calgary 10 Oct 98 - the Observations METAR CYYC 100500Z 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC014 00/M02 A3010 SPECI CYYC 100508Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006 SPECI CYYC 100517Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040 SPECI CYYC 100527Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 METAR CYYC 100600Z 35006KT 10SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 M00/M02 A3010

  19. Calgary10 Oct 1998 - the Aerodrome “Backcast” TAF CYYC 100430Z 100505 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC014 FM0508Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006 FM0517Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040 FM0527Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 Its precise It doesn’t use qualifiers such as TEMPO or PROB It only covers one hour

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