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PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA abridge. For B92 conducted by SMMRI May 2001. PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA. contents methodological notes 2 trust and endagers 3 responsibility and culpability 6 what people know and what they believe in 17
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For B92 conducted by SMMRI May 2001 SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA • contents • methodological notes 2 • trust and endagers 3 • responsibility and culpability 6 • what people know and what they believe in17 • are people familiar with “in search of truth” programmes 22 • sources of information duringthe wars and the impact of informationcollected on opinions 27 SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA • Aim: • What Serbs from Serbia know, who they trust and to what extent, who they fear, how they get informed and how they perceive the events which marked the Milosevic era in power. • Methodology: • Target population: Total adult population • Sample frame: 1991 Census, vital statistics and migration data, and SMMRI estimates of population in 2000 • Type of sample: Stratified three-stage random sample • Stratums: Belgrade, Vojvodina, Central Serbia / urban-rural • Stratification: Allocation in proportion to size of stratum according to 2000 data • Sample stages: • 1 stage: Local community centers – census rounds (PPS sample – 18+) • 2 stage: Households - random pass (simulation of SRSWoR sample scheme) and • 3 stage Next birthday method • Sample size: 2171 completed questionnaires • Sample selection: Lachirie method. • Polling technique: Face to face • Time: second half of April2001 SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA TRUST AND ENDAGERS SMMRI
TRUST IN OTHER PEOPLE AND OTHER NATIONALITIES • MAJORITY OF SERBIAN CITIZENS ARE OF OPINION THAT OTHER PEOPLE SHOULD BE TREATED WITH UTMOST CAUTION (63.6%) • MAJORITY OF SERBIAN CITIZENS ARE OF OPINION THAT OTHER NATIONS SHOULD BE TREATED WITH UTMOST CAUTION (55.8%) • 39.9% CITIZENS OF SERBIA ARE OF OPINION THAT THE NATIONS WE WERE AT WAR WITH SHOULD NEVER AGAIN BE TRUSTED, EVEN IF GOOD OFFICIAL RELATIONS WERE RESTORED • TRUST IN OTHER PEOPLE AND OTHER NATIONS IS LARGER IN YOUNG PEOPLE • EXTREME DISTRUST IN OTHER NATIONS IS EXPRESSED BY 29.4% OF THE PEOPLE, AGED 18 TO 29 , AND BY 44.2% OF THE PEOPLE OVER 60 • EXTREME UNWILLINGNESS TO RECONCILE WITH THE NATIONS WE WERE AT CONFLICT WITH IS EXPRESSED BY 21% OF THE PEOPLE AGED 18 TO 29 , AND BY 34.6% OT HE PEOPLE OVER 60 SMMRI
WHICH ASPECTS OF SERBIA ARE ENDANGERED Territorial integrity of Serbia 10.6 76.6 • MORE THAN A HALF OF SERBIAN CITIZENS ARE OF OPINION THAT IT IS • TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF SERBIA (76.6%) • ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE (64.6%) • SECURITY OF CITIZENS (53.5%) Economic 64.6 17.1 independence Security of citizens 20.6 53.5 Political independence 27.4 48.2 National 36.3 41.7 pride Tradition and 58.3 23.3 customs Not at all Very much SMMRI
IS SECURITY OF SERBIA ENDANGERED • ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE IS ENDANGERED MOST BY INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN POWERS • TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF SERBIA IS ENDANGERED MOST BY ALBANIAN TERRORISM • SECURITY OF CITIZENS IS ENDANGERED MOST BY CRIME • POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE IS ENDANGERED MOST BY INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN POWERS • NATIONAL PRIDE IS ENDANGERED MOST BY INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN POWERS • TRADITION AND CUSTOMS ARE ENDANGERED MOST BY GENERAL LACK OF CULTURE SMMRI
WHO AND TO WHAT EXTENT PROTECTS THE INTERESTS OF SERBIA • MOST CITIZENS OF SERBIA THINK THAT THE BEST WAY FOR SERBIA TO PROTECT ITS INTERESTS IS TO JOIN THE EUROPEAN UNION (59.6%) • 82.3% OF CITIZENS THINK THAT KOSTUNICA PROTECTS THE INTERESTS OF SERBIA IN HIS CONTACTS ON THE INTERANTIONAL STAGE • THE ARMY WAS EVALUATED AS THE INSTITTUION OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE FOR THE SECURITY OF THE COUTRY AND THE ONE WHICH IS TRUSTED MOST • DSS (65.9%) I DOS (59.4%) THE POLITICAL PARTY AND THE COALITION EVALUTED AS DEFENDING NATIONAL INTERESTS OF SERBIA TO THE GREATEST LEVEL • LSDV (78%) I SRS (66.6%) POLITICAL PARTIES EVALUATED AS THOSE WHICH REPRESENT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR NATIONAL INTERESTS OF SERBIA SMMRI
TO WHAT EXTENT DO POLITICAL PARTIES/COALITIONS DEFEND OR ENDANGER INTERESTS OF SERBIA? 65.9 DSS / Demokratska stranka Srbije 59.4 DOS / Demokratska opozicija Srbije 46.8 DS / Demokratska stranka 37.6 GSS / Gradjanski savez Srbije 36.2 SSJ / Stranka srpskog jedinstva 33.8 DA / Demokratska alternativa 28.7 SD / Socijaldemokratija 23.1 SPS / Socijalistička partija Srbije SPO / Srpski pokret obnove 18.6 17.1 SRS / Srpska radikalna stranka 12.8 LSDV / Liga socijaldemokrata Vojvodine 50% 50 10% 10% Endangers the interests Defends the interests SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA RESPONSIBILITY AND CULPABILITY A. NATO INTERVENTION B. DISINTEGRATION OF FRY AND THE OUTBREAK OF WARS • C. EVENTS AND CRIMES IN CONFLICTS AND WARS • D. PEOPLE – THE CULPRITS AND THE HEROES SMMRI
DISINTEGRATION OF FRY AND THE OUTBREAK OF WARS • ONLY CROATIAN NATIONALISM WAS EVALUATED AS A SLIGHLTY MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR (77.7%) IN DISINTEGRATION OF FORMER YUGOSLAVIA THAN THE INTERESTS OF USA (73.5%) AND NATO (72.3%) • USA BECOMING THE ONLY SUPERPOWER WAS EVALUATED AS AN EVENT SLIGHTLY MORE IMPORTANT IN DISINTEGRATION OF YUGOSLAVIA (25.9%) THAN MILOSEVIC`S RISE TO POWER (23%) • 80.7% CITIZENS AGREE WITH THE STATEMENT THAT ALBANIANS PROVOKED THE CONFLICT IN KOSOVO AND 69.5% THAT THE CONFLICT WAS FRUTHER INFLAMED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY • 50.6% OF CITIZENS THINK THAT MILOSEVIC`S REGIME DID NOTHING TO PREVENT THE CONFLICT IN KOSOVO SMMRI
HOW IMPORTANT ARE THE FOLLOWING FACTORS IN DISINTEGRATION OF FORMER YUGOSLAVIA? SMMRI
A SINGLE EVENT WHICH WAS MOST IMPORTANT IN DISINTEGRATION OF SFRY SMMRI
WHO IS MORE RESPONSIBLE-CULPABLE FOR DISASTERS? • OTHERS ARE MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN WE ARE : • INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN ALL NATIONS OF SFRY • MILOSEVIC IS MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR HIM • INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS INTERESTS ARE MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN DOMESTIC BUSINESS INTERESTS • USA IS MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN EUROPE SMMRI
EVALUATION OF BEHAVIOUR OF RELEVANT FACTORS ON SERBIAN SIDE SMMRI
EVENTS RELATED TO CONFLICTS AND WARS NUMBER OF EVENTS STATED (MAXIMUM 3) CROATIA KOSOVO AND METOHIJA BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA • ONLY A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROPORTION THAN EVERY THIRD CITIZEN IS ABLE TO STATE 3 EVENTS RELATED TO CONFLICTS AND WARS SMMRI
WHICH THREE EVENTS DO YOU THINK OF FIRST WHEN YOU THINK OF CONFLICTS IN KOSOVO AND METOHIJA ? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered (% in population) SMMRI
WHICH THREE EVENTS DO YOU THINK OF FIRST WHEN YOU THINK OF CONFLICTS AND WARS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered (% in population) SMMRI
WHICH THREE EVENTS DO YOU THINK OF FIRST WHEN YOU THINK OF CONFLICTS AND WARS IN CROATIA? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS 96% of those who answered (96% in population) SMMRI
NUMBER OF STATED WAR CRIMES COMMITED BY SERBS IN THE LAST 10 YEARS COMMITED AGAINST SERBS IN THE LAST 10 YEARS More than a half of the citizens are not able to state a single crime committed by Serbs SMMRI
CAN YOU STATE THREE EVENTS-WAR CRIMES COMMITTED AGAINST SERBS IN THE LAST TEN YEARS? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered (% in population) SMMRI
CAN YOU STATE THREE EVENTS-WAR CRIMES COMMITTED BY SERBS IN THE LAST TEN YEARS? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered (% in population) SMMRI
THE MAIN CULPRITS FOR WARS (in the last decade of 20th century) AND THE BIGGEST DEFENDERS OF SERBS NUMBER OF STATED CULPRITS NUMBER OF PEOPLE STATED AS THE GREATEST DEFENDERS OF THE SERBIAN NATION The culprits are easier to state than defenders of Serbs SMMRI
THE BIGGEST CULPRITS FOR WARS - spontaneous Although the blame is usually laid upon the World, names of leaders from former Yugoslavia are stated as the biggest culprits SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered the question 4.3% did not state anybody SMMRI
THE GREATEST DEFENDERS OF THE SERBIAN NATION IN WARS IN THE LAST DECADE OF 20TH CENTURY -spontaneous SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered the question 26% did not state anybody SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA WHAT PEOPLE KNOW AND WHAT THEY BELIEVE IN SMMRI
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE FOLLOWING EVENTS? Most people who are familiar with events related to Serb suffering believe that these events are true (percentage of the total population is given in brackets) SMMRI
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE FOLLOWING EVENTS? Fewer people believe that crimes commited by the Serbs are true than those committed against the Serbs (percentage of the total population is given in brackets) SMMRI
NUMBER OF REFUGEES SERBS FROM CROATIA SERBS FROM BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA FROM KOSOVO AFTER BOMBING SMMRI
NUMBER OF DISPLACED PEOPLE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA OF PEOPLE KILLED IN SARAJEVO OF PEOPLE MISSING IN SREBRENICA SMMRI
NUMBER OF PEOPLE KILLED IN WARS 91-95 OF PEOPLE WHO LEFT SERBIA SMMRI
PERCEPTION OF TRUTH IN SERBIA ARE PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH “IN SEARCH OF TRUTH” PROGRAMMES AND WHAT DO THEY THINK OF THEM SMMRI
HAVE YOU HEARD OF SPECIAL TV AND RADIO “IN SEARCH OF TRUTH” PROGRAMMES? SMMRI
DO YOU THINK THAT PROGRAMMES LIKE THESE ARE NECESSARY AND SHOULD RADIO AND TV STATIONS START DELING WITH THESE TOPICS? SMMRI
WHICH TV STATIONS SHOULD DEAL WITH THESE TOPICS? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered the question (% of population) SMMRI
WHICH RADIO STATIONS ARE DEALING WITH THESE TOPICS? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who answered the question (% of population) SMMRI
HAVE YOU WATCHED OR LISTENED TO ANY OF THESE PROGRAMMES? SMMRI
WHICH TV STATIONS HAVE YOU SEEN THESE PROGRAMMES ON? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who watched the programmes (% of population) SMMRI
WHICH RADIO STATIONS DID YOU HEAR THESE PROGRAMMES ON? SPONTANEOUS ANSWERS % of those who lisstened to these programmes (%in population) SMMRI