1 / 35

GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data

GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data. Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF. Contents of the Presentation.

trudy
Download Presentation

GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF

  2. Contents of the Presentation • In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments • In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics • Greenhouse gases • Aerosol • Reactive gases • Regional Air Quality • Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 • Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) • Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

  3. Satellite data assimilated operationally at ECMWF 3xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16 + AQUA) 2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17) 3 SSMI (F-13/14/15) in clear and rainy conditions 1xHIRS (NOAA-17) AIRS (AQUA) Radiances from 5 GEOS (Met-5, Met-8, GOES-9/10/12) Winds from 4 GEOS (Met-5/8 GOES-10/12) and MODIS/TERRA+AQUA Scat winds from QuikSCAT and ERS-2 (Atlantic) Wave heightfromENVISAT RA2 + ERS-2 SAR Ozone from SBUV (NOAA 16) and SCIAMACHY (ENVISAT) 27 different satellite sources! Coming soon: NOAA-18, SSMIS, radio occultation (GPS),…

  4. Forecast skill from 1981-2005 for Northern & Southern hemispheres

  5. A systematic approach to delivering socio-economic benefits from Earth observations, using Earth-system models and assimilations Global & Regional Observations Global Earth-system forecast systems for Atmosphere, Land , Ocean, Chemistry, Biosphere -delivering deterministic and probabilistic forecasts Coupled end-user models, delivering deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for Air-quality Health Storm-surge Hydrology & river floods energy industry Crop-yields - - -

  6. Contents of the Presentation • In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments • In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics • Greenhouse gases • Aerosol • Reactive gases • Regional Air Quality • Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 • Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) • Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

  7. GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) Projects Leadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F) Validation H.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

  8. Motivations for GEMS • BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES • Excess deaths in summer 2003:- 18K in France, 35K in western Europe. • Europe needs improved operational warnings for Meteorological / Air-quality natural disasters • GEMS will provide such warnings • SCIENCE • GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status assessments’. • GEMS products will facilitate study of many science questions on the sources, sinks transport, and processing of atmospheric trace constituents, • TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION • Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents. • GEMS will meet the needs in a comprehensive manner, including the requirements of the GCOS Implementation Plan

  9. Objectives of GEMS • Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 • Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), • REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), • AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) • Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts • Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 • Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents

  10. GEMS organisation GEMS is organised in 6 projects Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Validation Aerosol Regional Air Quality

  11. GEMS: Greenhouse Gases - Global Deliverables • Daily assimilation of all available satellite data (Advanced sounders, OCO, GOSAT) on CO2, CO, CH4, N2O • Monthly / Seasonal variational inversions of both in-situ (e.g. flask) and satellite data to provide estimates of surface fluxes • The same technology can be used to estimate surface fluxes of other atmospheric constituents

  12. Motivations for the GEMS:Aerosol project Aerosols are:- • An emerging issue for numerical weather prediction. • Neglect of aerosol is the largest error in model clear sky radiation calculations (50W/m**2) • Neglect of aerosol can lead to large errors (0.5K) in the forward calculations for advanced sounders. • The aerosol element of GEMS is likely to be the first GEMS element included in the operational suite • An important issue for public health and air quality (e.g. forthcoming EU directive on PM2.5) • GEMS will provide global forecasts for mineral dust, marine aerosol, black carbon, sulphate aerosol.. • GEMS variational estimates of aerosol sources may be of help for regulatory purposes • An important issue for climate • Aerosols may mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases through ‘global dimming’?

  13. GEMS:AEROSOL - Global Deliverables • Model and assimilate global aerosol information • Instruments: MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER, then VIIRS on NPP, VIIRS & APM on NPOESS, • Initially 15 parameters =>30 parameters • Global Monitoring • Global Forecasts • Boundary info. for Regional models

  14. GEMS: REACTIVE-GASES - Deliverables & Approach • Global Deliverables • Monitor the global 3D / temporal distributions, transports, sources/sinks of key species such as O3, NO2, SO2, CH2O.. • Forecast Global Chemical Weather, including UV-B • Initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather and Air-Quality Forecasts. • Modelling & Assimilation Approach • Tight coupling of the assimilating weather model (IFS) and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM ) to maintain good advection, and good chemical profiles. • Copy frequently (2-hours?) the chemical fields from the assimilating model IFS => CTM (Chemical Transport Model) • Copy frequently (2-hours?) the Production and Loss rates from CTM => IFS

  15. Data Flow and Responsibilities in GEMS Reactive Gas project METEO-FR ARPA SIM ISAC FRIUUK UPMC MPI-M … Satellite data ESA EUMETSAT NASA DLR … RAQ Models KNMI ECMWF BIRA IUP-UB SA-UPMC NHRF METEO-FR MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI ECMWF Initial Fields Production and Loss rates Validation data GAW NOAA NILU METEO-FR NASA … MPI-M ECMWF KNMI METEO-FR BIRA SA-UPMC CNRS-LA SA-UPMC DWD NHRF NUIG User Services Assimilation System CTMs FMI DMI MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI Courtesy: M.Schultz

  16. GEMS: Regional Air Quality Objectives • Evaluate the impact on Regional Air-Quality forecasts of global information on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants. • Initiate routine production at, & cooperation between, national air quality forecast centres for data access, forecast comparisons & skill evaluation. • Improve continental to regional scale air quality models, the statistical post-treatment of forecasts, & explore multi-model ensemble approaches. • Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast. • Assess the effects of global variability 1999-2008 on regional air quality and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.

  17. GEMS Regional Air Quality Partners • Czech Hydrometeorological Institute CZ • Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie D • Rheinisches Institut für Umweltf. Universität Köln D • Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut DK • Finnish Meteorological Institute Fin • CNRS: LMD / LA / LISA F • Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Service d’Aéronomie F • Météo-France, CNRM F • Inst. Nat. de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques F • LCAE, University of Athens H • ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro-Meteorologico I • Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate/ CNR I • Irish Environmental Protection Agency Irl • Meteorologisk Institutt Oslo N • Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut NL • Polish Institute of Environmental Protection P • The Met Office UK • Imperial College London UK

  18. Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF

  19. Contents of the Presentation • In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments • In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics • Greenhouse gases • Aerosol • Reactive gases • Regional Air Quality • Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 • Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) • Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

  20. AIRNow Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada • AIRNow is a N.American collaboration for real-time sharing of air quality information, observations and forecasts. • AIRNow involves 145 partners at City, State, National, International Level • AIRNow’s protocols have been carefully designed to respect the mandates and intellectual property rights of all partners. • Data may only be used for agreed purposes – unvalidated data my not be used for regulatory purposes • Data QC algorithms are the responsibility of the data owner • Data may only be displayed in a owner-agreed format (categorical or numerical) • Responsibility for official forecasts lies with the mandated authority at city, state or national level….. • AIRNow is perceived as a considerable step forward in real-time Air Quality service in both Canada and USA • http://airnow.gov/

  21. AIRNow Initial Operational Configuration State, Local, EPA & NOAA IT Links O3 Movies/ Forecasts NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction Weather Obs EPA Data Management Center AQ Data from S/L Agencies pull - - -> push ____> EPA Emissions Inventory Commercial Weather Providers Forecast Pollutant Concentration Fields Media City-specific AQI forecasts State/Local Air Agencies Public Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA

  22. 1300 AIRNow Ozone sites, hourly in real-time Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA Richard Menard, M.S.Canada

  23. AIRNow PM2.5 sites, hourly in real-time Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA Richard Menard, M.S.Canada

  24. Drafting a proposal for GMES Initial Atmospheric Service • In 2005 GMES Advisory Council (GAC) approved creation of three initial services: Marine, Risks, Land Cover • GAC recommended Atmosphere service to start in 2006 • EEA workshop in April 2005indicated substantial interest in collaboration of NEA’s and NMS’s in creating a real-time service • PROMOTE (ESA –GMES Service Element) currently developing satellite-related services • EUMETNET Council (Oct 2005) invited ECMWF to take lead for the Met Community in developing such a service. • Identify a drafting team for a proposal on an operational real-time Air Quality forecast service • ECMWF (GEMS) + EUMETSAT (GMES Programme Office) + EUM/WG-ENV • ESA: PROMOTE • Environment Agencies:-----? • Workshop in Spring 2006 to finalise the proposal • (Little new GMES money before funding of FP7 proposals.)

  25. Summary of the Presentation • In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments • In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics • Greenhouse gases • Aerosol • Reactive gases • Regional Air Quality • Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 • Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) • Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

  26. ENDthank you for your attention!www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

  27. BACK-UP SLIDES

  28. GEMS Reactive Gas Partners • ECMWF • Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées F • Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg D • Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut NL • Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, Brussels B • Finnish Meteorological Institute F • Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut DK • Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeissenberg D • Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität Bremen D • Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris F • LCAE, University of Athens, H • Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse F

  29. GEMS Greenhouse Gas Partners • ECMWF • The Met Office UK • Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRS F • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement F • Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena D • JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability EU

  30. GEMS Aerosol Partners • ECMWF • The Met Office UK • Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, Unversité de Lille F • LSCE/ CEA, Orme des Merisiers F • Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg D • Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki Fin • DWD Meteorological Observatory, Hohenpeissenberg D • Service d’Aéronomie, UPMC/CNRS, Paris  F • Dept. of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway Irl • Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels B

  31. GEMS Reactive Gas Partners • ECMWF Europe • Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées F • Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg D-Coordinator- • Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut NL • Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, Brussels B • Finnish Meteorological Institute F • Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut DK • Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeissenberg D • Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität Bremen D • Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris F • LCAE, University of Athens, H • Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse F

  32. Example OF CO2 Validation with Aircraft data R.Engelen Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA

  33. Modelling of Tropospheric Chemistry needs a full chemistry package and good surface emissions!Initially we shall bootstrap by coupling GCM & CTM Simulation of Ozone mixing ratio (nmol/mol) at 850 hPa for August 3, 2003, 1500 UTC as simulated with MOZART-2 CTM. Courtesy: G.Brasseur

  34. European heat-wave 4-13 August 2003 Week-1/2/3 ensemble forecasts for 4-10 Aug Verif, Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Vitart (2005)

  35. Issues in Transitioning the GEMS project to Operational Status from 2009 onwards. • The GEMS project intends to be scientifically ready and technically ready to transition the global and regional GEMS systems to operational status by May 2009. New institutional arrangements are needed to • fund operations, incl. human resources, computing & telecomms. • fund sustained research support • make and share observations, both real-time and archival • product dissemination, both real-time and archival • Actors in creating such institutional arrangements include • European Commission, EEA , ESA • National Environment Agencies • Nat.Met.Services, ECMWF, EUMETSAT & EUMETNET • Scientific and technical partners in GEMS, PROMOTE, and related GMES activities. • Possible next step: Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

More Related