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EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN Petrina Rowcroft Development Economist Basin Development Plan

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  1. EXPERIENCES OF THE MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION IN FLOOD MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN Petrina Rowcroft Development Economist Basin Development Plan Regional Workshop on Methodologies of Assessment of Socio-Economic Impacts of Disasters in Asia and their Application for Poverty Eradication and Economic Development

  2. Content • Context • MRC approach to flood management and mitigation • Impact Assessment

  3. In 1995, the four governments of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam signed an Agreement for the Sustainable Development of the Lower Mekong Basin Mekong River Commission

  4. “Economically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound” Vision

  5. Goals • Enhanced economic and social well-being • Improved living standards of the basin inhabitants • Optimisation of the multiple use and mutual benefits of all riparians • Minimising the harmful effects that might result from natural occurrences and man-made activities

  6. DEALING WITH FLOODS • MRC focus is on: • Regional and transboundary water-related issues and impacts. • Local impacts dealt with by line agencies together with international and civil society organisations. MRC provides supplementary services • Predictive assessment using various basin development planning scenarios (BDP) • Analysis and assessment of flood-related impacts (FMMP) • Balanced approach…

  7. Flood Benefits • After-flood abundance of fish • Flushes the Mekong Delta to protect from salinity intrusion • Aids fish migration to spawning grounds and recharge of Tonle Sap Great Lake • Deposition of essential sediments for soil fertility • Often attracts large amounts of foreign investment for flood rehabilitation

  8. Flood Costs • Loss of life (> 800 people during 2000 floods) • Loss of agricultural productivity (measured using agricultural potential) • Damage to infrastructure • Impediment to navigation and trade

  9. Flood Management & Mitigation Programme (FMMP) • Flood Management & Mitigation Strategy – formulated in response to 2000 floods • Based around four groups of management areas to reduce flood risk and flood hazard across the floodplain

  10. Flood Management • Land-use Planning Measures are aimed at ‘keeping people away from the floodwaters’ • Structural Measures are aimed at ‘keeping floodwaters away from the people’ • Flood Preparedness Measures recognise that - no matter how effective the above types of management measures are – an overwhelming flood will always occur. • Flood Emergency Measures deal with the aftermath of such an event by ‘helping affected people to cope with floods’.

  11. Integrated Floodplain Management • Requires an integrated and coordinated mix of management measures • Must reflect: • the flooding, flood risk and flood hazard characteristics of the particular floodplain • the specific social and economic characteristics of the flood-prone communities • environmental and resource management plans and policies for the floodplain.

  12. Flood Preparedness • 23 hydrological monitoring stations provide real-time data on observed and forecast water levels • Observed levels published daily on MRC website (www.mrcemekong.org) • Also provide weekly flood forecasts and yearly data

  13. Coming Soon… • Establishment of a regional FMM Centre • Studies, policy discussions on land use planning and infrastructure development in relation to flood impacts (BDP) • Flood proofing measures • Flood forecasting, warning and dissemination services • Mediation services • Analysis of risk and impacts • Strengthening of capacity to manage flood emergencies

  14. Basin Development Plan (BDP) • Working towards the formulation of a management strategy and plan for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) • Scenario-based planning approach • External conditions (e.g. climate change) • Human interventions • Requires multi-level predictive assessment – current focus is on strategic level

  15. Impact Assessment in the BDP • Tools being developed for assessment of impacts resulting from scenarios • Decision Support Framework (DSF) • RAOM • SEA • SIA • MCA and expert opinion • Results used to focus planning efforts by ranking development scenarios (e.g. most preferred to least preferred)

  16. Water Environment Social & economic DSF RAOM SEA Expert opinion Regional initiatives National plans BDP longlist Scenario formulation MRC Agreement Assessment criteria Assessment framework MCA Compare & rank Scenarios Analysis of impacts Consultation & Negotiation BDP shortlist BDP strategy

  17. DSF DSF and other sources Impact analysis • Impacts of different scenarios are described using expert opinion and models (DSF) • hydrological • environmental • social • economic • Impacts may be poorly understood / little data available / difficult to quantify • particularly for social and economic impacts • work with existing knowledge • qualitative / descriptive vs quantitative

  18. Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of Floods in BDP • Significance of impacts related to flood timing, flood depth and flood duration • DSF provides hydrological data and simulation models to show extent of floods under different development conditions • Knowledge base contains spatially referenced data (GIS) which assists in prediction of socio-economic and environmental impacts • Most socio-economic assessment done outside of the DSF

  19. Flood depths

  20. Flood durations

  21. Examples of spatial data in the DSF • Inundation map in Aug & Sept 2000 • Major cities in the LMB • Village centres (Lao & Cambodia)

  22. DSF Application to environmental and socio-economic assessment • Environmental impacts by reference to changes in flow conditions • Impacts on land-use potential and value by reference to the extent, duration and timing of flooding on lands of different classes

  23. Potentially impacted population (PIP) • Geo-referenced population data obtained from village-level census (population and number of households) in Cambodia and Laos. • Flood duration data (flood defined as > 0.5m) • Sum of population * flood duration = no. of person days flooding • Provides clear indication of where impacts most felt and therefore provides a focus for basin development planning in terms of flood management and mitigation measures

  24. Before dam Before dam Cost of flood damage After dam After dam Trey riel catch Flooded area (ha) Flooded area (ha) Flooding DSF gives changes in extent and duration of flooding, and information about the type of land flooded (land use, wetland type) • NO information on • impact on ecosystems • impact on fish production • value of reduced damage from floods as a result of dams • ….etc

  25. Environment - wetlands GIS in DSF gives location of wetlands, and some information on type • NO information on • response of wetland plants or animals to changes in flow • how changes would affect subsistence use • value of wetland produce and how this would change

  26. Social Impacts • GIS in DSF gives • location of villages • population • some information on social conditions (from Census, provincial level) • NO information on • subsistence livelihoods • resettlement options and preferences • cultural values • ethnic minorities • …..etc

  27. Economic impacts GIS in DSF gives some information on land use, irrigation • NO information on • value of agricultural production (at present) • non-agricultural industries • value of power generated • costs of relocation

  28. BEYOND THE DSF…

  29. Social Impact Assessment • BDP currently in process of developing indicators and assessment framework based on Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches (Assets, Capabilities, Vulnerability, etc) • Participatory – requires understanding of how different people relate to different resources (differential impacts on gender, ethnic groups, income groups, etc)

  30. Economic Impact Assessment • Quantitative assessment of relative costs and benefits of flooding • Changes in agricultural productivity (based on potential value) • Loss of life • Replacement costs of damaged infrastructure • Opportunity costs of limited/no access to infrastructure • Impacts upon subsistence users (opportunity costs of limited access to/availability of natural resources) • Upstream and downstream impacts (e.g. loss of fish has implications on suppliers of fishing gear and fish production facilities) • Environmental-economic impacts difficult to quantify as relationships not yet fully understood (e.g. floods and fish productivity)

  31. Potential for application of ECLAC Methodology?

  32. Thank you

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