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Outlook for Human Resources in ICT

Outlook for Human Resources in ICT. National 2008 - 2015. ICTC Overview. ICTC is dedicated to ensuring Canada’s ICT sector is made up of a prepared, diverse and highly educated workforce. We achieve our goals through a five pillar approach : Standards Labour Market Intelligence (LMI)

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Outlook for Human Resources in ICT

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  1. Outlook for Human Resources in ICT National2008 - 2015

  2. ICTC Overview • ICTC is dedicated to ensuring Canada’s ICT sector is made up of a prepared, diverse and highly educated workforce. We achieve our goals through a five pillar approach: • Standards • Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) • Career Pathways • Immigration Initiatives • Partnership

  3. Outline of Presentation • Labour Shortages vs Skill Shortages • Where we have been? • Demand Trends • Outlook in Brief • Implications and Issues Final Draft for Validation www.ictc-ctic.ca

  4. Employment Forecasting • From the perspective of an employer trying to hire, a ‘labour • shortage’ and a ‘skill shortage’ can seem like the same thing. • They are different and the differences are important.

  5. Skill Depth and Skill Breadth Increase in Skill Breadth Business and Other Skills acquired through Experience Core Skills acquired in University or College Increase in Skill Depth Specific Industry and Technology Skills acquired through Experience or Advanced Study

  6. Employment Forecasting

  7. Key Questions • Do we have a skills shortage… or a labour • shortage… or both? • Which occupations? Which regions? • What strategies do we need? • The answers to these questions are not the • same for every region. • Nor are the answers the same for every ICT • occupation.

  8. Labour shortage risk: focused on three occupations Skills shortage risk: more systemic

  9. ICT Employment Growth: 2005(ii) - 2007(iii) Flat: 2007(iv) - present Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Special Tabulation

  10. ICT in Canada, 2006 Census ICT Occupations = 3.8% of Canadian Employment Statistics Canada, Census, Special Tabulation

  11. Getting from 2001 to 2007 50% needed University Degree 57,250 • Graduates • Comp Sci: 46,000 • Engineering: 13,800 Immigrants with ICT Degrees 39,000 Replacement Demand 68,000 57,250 vs. 98,800 Growth in Employment 46,500 • Every year the pool of frustrated job-seekers increased. As a result: • enrolments declined • immigration began to decline

  12. Enrolments in Computer Science Fell 33% Decline Statistics Canada

  13. Immigration began to Fall after 2005 24% Decline Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Special Tabulation

  14. Skill Shortages / Labour Shortages • At the same time we saw: • growing skill shortages in occupations that • require a mix of technical skills, soft skills, • and business experience • widespread labour shortages in Alberta • emerging labour shortages in certain occupations, • notably: • Business / Systems Analysts • Software Engineers • IT Managers

  15. ICT by Educational Qualification, 2006 Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

  16. IEP’s Post-secondary Degrees

  17. IEP Share of ICT Employment Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

  18. Settlement Patterns

  19. Unemployment – Natural & Applied Science Occupations Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

  20. Demand Trends: • Economic Environment • Recession in 2008 continuing into 2009 • Contraction stops towards the end of 2009 • Moderate growth thereafter • ICT Investment Spending • Sharp downturn in 2008-2009 (credit related) • Moderate growth in 2010 and thereafter • Software biased

  21. ICT Investment Trends: Composition Statistics Canada

  22. ICT Investment Nominal vs. Real Statistics Canada, Prism Economics

  23. Demand Trends: • ICT R&D • Flat or declining in 2008 and 2009 • Moderate growth thereafter • Technology Trends • Web 2.0, security, SOA, wireless, legacy applications • Offshoring / Near-Shoring Trends • Moderate increase in off-shoring, not radical • Near-shoring decline in 2008 and 2009

  24. Computer & Information Services Statistics Canada

  25. Decline in Age 15-19 Cohort Statistics Canada

  26. ICT Investment Nominal vs. Real 2001 & 2006: Census 2002-2005, 2007: Estimated 2008-2015: Prism Economics / C4SE

  27. Growth Scenarios

  28. Implications of Growth Scenarios

  29. If we stay on automatic pilot: • labour shortages will worsen in Alberta and will • emerge in Manitoba and Saskatchewan • risk of occupationally specific labour shortages : • Business / Systems Analysts • Software Engineers • IT Managers • broader skill shortage problems will become more acute

  30. Legacy Applications • Widespread in large private sector organizations and public sector. In some organizations, >50% of IT budget is focused on legacy applications. • Work force with these skills is older and is not being renewed. • Recent graduates are not a source of supply. • Skill shortages will drive outsourcing and obsolescence

  31. Key Human Resource Challenges • Significant risk of labour shortages, focussed on: • Information Systems Analysts & Consultants • Computer Information and Systems Managers • Software Engineers • Six Supply Challenges: to deal with ‘skills gap’ and ‘focused risk of labour shortages’ • Maintaining supply from colleges and universities, let alone increasing supply, in the context of adverse demographic trends and competition from other industries and occupations. • Improving integration of IEPs, in particular to deal with specialized skill needs and legacy applications

  32. Key Human Resource Challenges • Improving transition from graduation to employment. • Diversifying labour pool: • Women • Aboriginal Canadians • Other Under-represented minorities • Strengthen Continuing Professional Development opportunities for incumbent work force • Expanding post-secondary programs that link ICT with other fields

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