“Future Transatlantic Bargains: Implications for Smart Defence?”

1. “Future Transatlantic Bargains: Implications for Smart Defence?”  The International High-Level Sofia Conference on “Smart Defence – Pooling and Sharing: Eastern European View on Multinational and Innovative Approaches for Capabilities Development” Dr. Graeme P. Herd g.herd@gcsp.ch T : +41 22 906 16 14; F : +41 22 906 16 49 GCSP |Geneva Centre for Security Policy Avenue de la Paix 7bis | P.O. Box 1295 CH-1211 Geneva 1 |www.gcsp.ch

2. NATO 2012: In Search of Reset Growing Strategic Heterogeneity • Perception of NATO’s Utility: • Europe declining importance (DoD guidance) • US strategic competence/credibility/capacity questioned • Regional/Global Orientation Dissonance: • US pivot to ‘Pacific Century’: crisis management and collective security focus • European budgetary crisis/retrenchment: regionally anchored deterrence and defence • New threats (Cyber, terrorism, energy): • Different impact: collective action consensus? • Non-military: NATO institutional centrality?

3. NATO in an ‘Age of Austerity’ • 18 Allies lower defence expenditures than 2008; further reductions announced/anticipated • US share grown from 63 to 77% - 82.4% US increase; NATO European nations 5.7% decrease • 3 Allies at/above recommended 2% GDP 2011; 15 Allies less than 1.5% • 8 Allies spend recommended 20% or more on major equipment; 6 spend less than 10% • Majority face difficulty in maintaining proper balance between short-term operation and longer-term investment expenditures

4. “Smart Defence” as a Solution? Acquiring and maintaining capabilities • Mitigation: • “streamline our structures, enhance our effectiveness and reduce our costs” • Doing better with less by working more together – “spend better” • Greater intra-NATO collaboration/coherence of effort – better solidarity and cohesion • How? Prioritization of capabilities – 11 areas (Lisbon summit) • National specialization • Multinational solutions: acquisition (e.g. Strategic Airlift Capability; BMD), training, logistic support • Greater EU coordination to avoid overlap with EU initiative on pooling and sharing.

5. Adaptation Catalyst Assumptions:Structure-Primacy; Grand Strategy-NATO • Structural IR changes (global power distribution power) create multi-, bi- or uni-polar systems • US Grand Strategy: constant adaptation to maintain global prime actor status and stable Euro-Atlantic order within given system • Primacy through strategic leadership of modern international liberal order (free trade, democracy, social advancement, rules and norms, alliances) • ‘Transatlantic Bargain’ adapt and renew NATO to best serve this end

6. 1948-49: ‘Transatlantic Bargain’ - I:from multi-polarity to bi-polarity • Drive US Grand Strategy to: • Secure Euro-Atlantic stability and lead liberal international order: • European and East Asian defence alliances, free trade, democracy, social advancement, rules and norms etc. • ‘Transatlantic Bargain’ – creation of NATO: • European support for US global order hegemony (‘alliance in being’ - compact) • US regional territorial ‘guarantee’ via conventional forces and nuclear umbrella (‘alliance in doing’ - contract)

7. 1989-90: ‘Transatlantic Bargain’ – IIfrom bi-polar to uni-polar • Drive US Grand Strategy to: • Secure ‘arc of instability’ and promote leadership in global market-democratic order: • Promotion of shared values and democratic peace – ‘En-En’ doctrine • ‘Transatlantic Bargain’ – adapt and revitalize: • Continued US support for collective defence of European NATO • European acceptance of wider collective security and crisis management roles and NATO enlargement

8. NATO Heterogeneity Reflect Uncertain Global Transformations • The Global Puzzle paradigm: • Primacy, power-shifts, interdependence in equilibrium? • Unclear strategic effects: inherently contradictory • Implications for NATO: • Collective defence redundant; collective security and crisis management under-resourced • No catalyst for new understanding of common challenges and interests – no NATO bargain/reset

9. Alternative Global Futures:Potential Structural Change; Adapted US Grand Strategy; NATO Reset • Cooperative World Order: • Reform and moderniseshared ‘market-good governance’ one-world modernity paradigm • ‘Multinational solutions to global issues’; normative convergence • Competitive World Order: • China seek to remake global institutions, norms/rules of the IR game? • G-Zero leaderless world

10. Competitive Bi- or Multi-polar World:Implications for NATO Reset? • NATO Characteristics: • NATO as forum for allied security debates • Art. IV more relevant in competitive/rivalry atmosphere • Proxy wars between blocs via partners; normative battles in global commons • Nature of the Transatlantic Bargain: • Euro-Atlantic stability to buttress global leadership • For US NATO’s institutional weight/political legitimacy more important than member state military efficiency and effectiveness (via NATO partnerships) • For Europeans: US political support in return for economic/military security commitments • Paradox: in a competitive world order ‘Smart Defence’ is not necessity; Europeans maintain US strategic partnership via political support?

11. Cooperative Bi- or Multi-polar World:Implications NATO Reset? • NATO Characteristics: • NATO as a coordinating core of globalised cooperative security and crisis management system • Enlargement (Russia) and partnerships (China) v. transnational and non-state threats, fragile states, regional crises • From Transatlantic to Global Bargain: • Regional compacts to buttress global coalitional leadership • For US military efficiency and effectiveness of NATO more important than political legitimacy as common values and approaches widely shared • For Europeans support for US-led operations the only means to gain strategic influence • Paradox: in cooperative world order ‘Smart Defence’ leading to operational deployment is a necessity as European political support to US redundant

13. NATO Business as Usual: Extrapolate Forward? • Contradictory Strategic Trends: • Primacy, power-shifts, interdependence • Strategic effects uncertain: the Global Puzzle paradigm • No clear structural change (yet?) to create impetus for new bargain in 2010s • Implications for ‘Dead Alliance Walking’: • Collective defence role redundant; collective security and crisis management role under-resourced • No catalyst for new understanding of common challenges and interests; No NATO bargain/reset • NATO wither on the vine; progressively splintered and pessimistic West; strategic marginalization of West

14. Black Swans and Non-Linearity: “Events, dear boy, events …” Earthquake in Tokyo Global Pandemic DC Hurricane Gangeatic Floods DPKR CBRN Catastrophe Arab Spring US in Pakistan Af-Iraq Drawdown Pak Drawdown US-Af-Pak-Iraq Treaty Indian Ocean “Incident” Dire Taiwan Straits Operation Unified Protector Brasilia UNSC Initiative Global Commons Accord 2024 2013 2014 2017 2019 2012 2011 2029 Tsunami & Fukushima Nuclear Accident Cyber terrorist attack – Internet collapse Trans- human 2nd G Internet Cloud Computing Revolution Synthetic intelligence Thailand Implosion Contested Chinese Power Transition Coup d'état Nigeria Bin Laden killed Persian Gulf Crisis MENA WMD Proliferation Straits of Hormuz clash Nigerian Civil War King Abdulla Dies