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Will the Oklahoma economy “stall out”?

Dave Shideler Presentation to the County Officers and Deputies Association September 17, 2009 Oklahoma City, OK. Will the Oklahoma economy “stall out”?. Current State of the Oklahoma Economy Unemployment Real estate Retail sales Previous Experience

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Will the Oklahoma economy “stall out”?

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  1. Dave Shideler Presentation to the County Officers and Deputies Association September 17, 2009 Oklahoma City, OK

    Will the Oklahoma economy “stall out”?

  2. Current State of the Oklahoma Economy Unemployment Real estate Retail sales Previous Experience Kansas City Fed District vs. other Fed Districts Industrial structure Commodity prices Looking Forward Deflation Diversified economy Outline
  3. Unemployment rates, july 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 11, 2009 http://data.bls.gov/map/servlet/map
  4. Unemployment rate relative to us Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 11, 2009 http://data.bls.gov/map/servlet/map
  5. Unemployment change since recession began Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 11, 2009 http://data.bls.gov/map/servlet/map
  6. Real estate Source: http://www.census.gov/const/quarterly_sales_cust.xls , accessed 9/11/2009 at 9:15 am
  7. Mortgage delinquency rates, june 2009 Delinquency rates are defined as the percentage of mortgages that are 90 or more days behind in payments; national delinquency rate was 5.81-9.24%, according to TransUnion LLC and Mortgage Bankers’ Association, respectively. Both are up since the previous year. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/, accessed 9/11/09 at 3:30 pm
  8. Mortgage delinquency rates rate of change, 2008-2009 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/, accessed 9/14/09 at 11:00 am
  9. Credit card delinquencies, june 2009 Delinquency rates are defined as the percentage of bank cards that are 60 or more days behind in payments; national delinquency rate was 1.17%, according to TransUnion LLC. SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/, accessed 9/11/09 at 3:30 pm
  10. Credit card delinquencies rate of change, 2008-2009 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/, accessed 9/14/09 at 11:00 am
  11. Percent Change in Retail Sales, Aug 2008-Aug 2009 SOURCE: Oklahoma Tax Commission
  12. Looking Back at the 1980s and 2000s Recessions for Clues

    So, What Should We Expect Going Forward?

  13. U.S. Recessions by Federal Reserve District, 1957-present SOURCE: Wilkerson, C. “Recession and Recovery Across the Nation: Lessons from History.” Economic Review, 2nd Q 2009: 5-24.
  14. Employment Growth Since the End of the 2001 Recession Percent 15 During expansion 12 During current recession* Total 9 6 3 0 - 3 - 6 U.S. 1 - Bos 2 - NY 3 - Phi 4 - Cle 5 - Rich 6 - Atl 7 - Chi 8 - StL 9 - Min 10 - KC 11 - Dal 12 - SF * Through Q2 2009, estimated based upon preliminary state - level data. Expansion and recession size is based on actual District ti ming SOURCE: Wilkerson, C. “Recession and Recovery Across the Nation: Lessons from History.” Economic Review, 2nd Q 2009: 5-24.
  15. Oklahoma Employment, monthly, 1980-jul. 2009 http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
  16. Oklahoma Unemployment rate, monthly, 1980-jul. 2009 http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
  17. Mining
  18. Manufacturing
  19. Retail Trade
  20. Services
  21. Government (all levels)
  22. Commodity prices: oil
  23. Commodity prices: Natural Gas
  24. Commodity prices: Wheat
  25. Commodity Prices: Cattle
  26. State and local budgets have been/will be hit hard by recession State Level: Gross Production Receipts and Sales Tax Revenues Local Level: Sales Tax Revenues; little impact on ad valorem revenues Though some similarities between ‘81-’83 recession, there isn’t the construction “boom” fall out Plenty of labor, now and in the future; will there be jobs? Which sectors? Change in consumer behavior? Take Away
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