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Probability and predicting

Discover how probability is used to predict outcomes by sampling data in large populations. Learn to make accurate predictions based on experimental probabilities.

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Probability and predicting

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  1. Probability and predicting

  2. 1. What is the probability that a student preferred pepperoni?

  3. Sometimes, the population is very large. To save time and money part of the group, called a sample, is surveyed. Then this information is used to predict the approximate outcome of the larger group.

  4. 1. What is the probability that a student preferred pepperoni? 2. There are about 280 students in 7thgrade. Predict about how many students prefer pepperoni pizza.

  5. Every tenth person entering a concert is asked to name his/her favorite milk shake flavor. Find the probability that a person attending the concert prefers chocolate milk shakes.

  6. Every tenth person entering a concert is asked to name his/her favorite milk shake flavor. Find the probability that a person attending the concert prefers chocolate milk shakes. Predict how many people out of 620 would prefer chocolate milk shakes.

  7. Jack make 18 out of his last 20 free throws. What is the probability he will make the next free throw?

  8. Jack make 18 out of his last 20 free throws. What is the probability he will make the next free throw?Suppose Jack shoots the ball 50 times. Based on his probability, about how many times would you expect him to make a free throw?

  9. Whenever you are predicting – you MUST know the probability FIRST – then use that to make the prediction.THEN set up a proportion from the original probability to the prediction

  10. Denise found that the experimental probability of her making a bull’s eye when throwing darts is 2/10 or 20%. Out of 75 throws, about how many bull’s-eyes could she predict she would make? Probability of bulls eye FIRST = 20% = Now proportion for the prediction:

  11. A doctor’s office records data and concludes that, on average, 11% of their patients call to reschedule their appointments per week. If they have 240 appointments during the week, predict about how many will be rescheduled. Probability of rescheduling FIRST: Then set up proportion:

  12. While bowling, Brandi throws a strike in 40% of the frames. If she bowls 225 frames, how many would be expected to be strikes?

  13. Roll a dice – what is the probability of rolling a 3?

  14. You roll a dice 150 times. Predict how many times you will roll a 3. Roll a dice – what is the probability of rolling a 3?

  15. You roll a dice 400 times. Predict how many times it will land on a 3 or a 4. Probability of a 3 or 4 FIRST: Then set up proportion for prediction:

  16. You flip a fair coin 18 times. About how many times would you expect heads to appear? Probability of heads FIRST =

  17. Celia volunteers at her local animal shelter. She has an equally likely chance to be assigned to a dog, cat, bird or reptile section. If she volunteers 24 times, about how many times should she expect to be assigned to the dog section? Probability of __________ first:

  18. Herschel has 4 black socks, 3 red socks, and 5 blue socks. If he had 60 socks in his drawer, what is the probability that he will NOT pull out a blue sock?

  19. A bag contains 6 red marbles, 2 white marbles and 1 gray marble. You randomly pick out a marble, record its color, and put it back in the bag. You repeat this process 45 times. How many white or gray marbles do you expect to get?

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