Market Research Energy Efficiency Baseline and Opportunities

1. Market Research Energy Efficiency Baseline and Opportunities Based on preliminary results of a report commissioned by Efficiency Maine Trust and completed by;

2. Study Scope • Baseline Study • Energy efficiency opportunities assessment • Distributed generation opportunities assessment

3. Baseline Study and Analysis

4. Baseline Study • Visited 133 sites • 103 commercial • Random sample of 69 plus additional surveys in key segments - Restaurants, Grocery, Retail • 30 industrial • Collected baseline information on equipment saturations, efficiency levels, efficiency attitudes • Inform assessment of opportunities

5. Baseline Study (cont) • Overall Commercial – 90/10* • Overall Industrial – 90/15 • Key Commercial Segments ≈ 90/20 • Grocery • Office • Restaurant • Retail * 90% confidence that results are accurate with a ±10% margin of error

6. Commercial Lighting Overview

7. Interior Fluorescent Tube Lighting

8. Interior Non Fluorescent Tube Lighting

9. Exterior Lighting

10. Interior Lighting Controls

11. Residential Sector Baseline Data • Utilized existing, available data sources including: Efficiency Maine evaluation • Reports, utility appliance saturation data, and regional survey data Efficiency Maine Trust Residential Lighting Program Evaluation: Interim Report (Cadmus)

12. Energy Efficiency Opportunities

13. Types of DSM Potential • Technical Potential • Complete Saturation of all technically feasible electric efficiency measures • Economic Potential • Complete saturation of all cost-effective technical potential • Used Maine-specific 2011 Avoided Cost Forecast from AESC Study for 2011-2041 • Achievable Potential • Subset of economic potential that is achievable given market barriers and length of analysis

14. Energy Efficiency Measures Considered • Measure list compiled based on current measures/programs currently offered by Efficiency Maine • Analysis also includes additional technologies offered by similar programs across the region • Measure list reviewed and revised by Efficiency Maine Trust prior to analysis • Total of 245 measures included across all customer classes • Residential: 37 measures • Commercial: 127 measures • Industrial: 81 measures

15. Quantifying Efficiency Opportunities Technical Potential Calculation Example • 530,011 * 39.5% = 209,354 homes with freezers • 209,354 * 88% = 184,232 homes with inefficient freezers • 184,232 * 100% = 184,232 (all applicable) • 184,232 * 673 kWh = 123,988,136 kWh (freezer usage) • 123,988,136 kWh * 10% = 12,398,814 kWh (savings) • 530,011 Existing Year-Round SF Homes • 39.5% of homes have stand-alone freezers • 12% of all freezers are energy efficient • 100% applicability • 673 kWh ; Standard New Freezer • 10% ; Percent savings of ENERGY STAR freezer

16. Determining Cost-Effectiveness • Total Resource Cost (TRC) Test • Benefits Include: • Avoided Electric Energy (including RPS, and carbon) and Capacity Costs, • Avoided non-electric fuel benefits, Water. • Costs Include: • Incremental measure costs • Program delivery costs • Administrative cost $ Benefit $ Cost > 1 Every measure with a B/C Ratio greater than 1 is cheaper than buying energy from the grid.

17. Maximum Achievable Potential Definition: Maximum Achievable Potential describes the economic potential that could be achieved over a given time period under the most aggressive program scenario. To reach maximum achievable potential, study assumes: 1) Very high penetration levels over the 10-yr period 2) High Incentive levels. 3) Primarily assumes a replace-on-burnout approach. 4) Assumes that installed efficiency measures persist throughout the 10-year study period

18. 2021 Electric Energy Efficiency Opportunity Summary (All Sectors)

19. 2021 Residential Maximum Achievable Potential

20. Residential Lighting by Measure 20

21. 2021 Commercial Maximum Achievable Potential

22. Commercial Lighting Savings by Measure

23. 2021 Industrial Maximum Achievable Potential Energy Savings (as a % of 2021 Sales) by End-Use

24. Industrial Machine Drive Savings by Measure

25. Combined Heat and Power Assessment

26. Combined Heat and Power • Fuels considered: • Natural gas • Biogas • Biomass • Includes combined cooling heat and power (CCHP), which uses thermal output with absorption chiller for cooling • Evaluated cost effectiveness (based on TRC) • For measures with TRC B/C >1, estimated technical and achievable potential

27. CHP Cost Effectiveness Screening • Cost effective for most configurations: • Natural gas-fueled • Gas turbine • Reciprocating engine • Biogas-fueled • Gas turbine & microturbine • Reciprocating engine • Biomass-fueled steam turbine • Not found to be cost effective: • Natural gas-fueled microturbines • Fuel cells

28. CHP Analysis • Used CMP customer data to determine C&I facility types and sizes in the state • Applied data on best facility types for CHP (based on coincidence of thermal and electric loads) to determine total technical potential • Used data from other states to estimate achievable potential as a percent of technical • California Self Generation Incentive Program • Also compared with activity in Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire

29. Biogas & Biomass CHP Analysis • Evaluated variety of sources: • EPA Landfill Methane Outreach Program • 10 sites in Maine with CHP potential • Wastewater treatment facilities • None in Maine meet recommended minimum of 5 million gallons per day • Agricultural opportunities • 8 Maine dairy farms meet recommended size for CHP • Paper/wood product manufacturing facilities • CMP data shows 18 with current demand 1+ MW • Assumed achievable potential is 10% of biomass/biogas technical potential, higher percentage than natural gas due to higher cost effectiveness

30. CHP – Achievable Opportunities • Likely installations over 10 years: • 22 with 12.5 MW capacity • Natural gas – 5.6 MW (18 installations) • Biogas – 700 kW (1 landfill, 1 dairy farm) • Biomass – 6.2 MW (2 paper/wood waste) • Strong outreach efforts, especially to large facilities, could further increase the installed capacity • 90 facilities in Maine with technical potential for systems of 1 MW or more