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Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008

Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia. Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008. Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia. Process Overview Opportunities for trade Trade and HD impact assessment Conclusions and key recommendations.

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Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008

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  1. Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia Daniel Gay Istanbul, 18 November 2008

  2. Regional Report on Trade and Human Development in Central Asia • Process • Overview • Opportunities for trade • Trade and HD impact assessment • Conclusions and key recommendations

  3. 1. process • Country studies were used for specific information and data. • Secondary research conducted. • Trade and HD Guide used simultaneously, while the Guide was being developed. • Cross-country comparisons made.

  4. 2. Overview Differences in economic growth…

  5. Human development index… * PPP US$ Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 1990-2007/2008 (Human Development Indicators).

  6. … investment … trade Incoming FDI, 2004-07 (US$m) Exports, 2003-05 (US$m) Sources: UNCTAD (2007,2008)

  7. … and in doing business. Source: World Bank (2008) • … but across the region: • There are some similarities in the business environment • Trade facilitation is a challenge, particularly transport.

  8. 3. Trading opportunities • The large number of regional and bilateral agreements have resulted in a ‘spaghetti bowl’ effect, leading to conflict and confusion. • Multilateralism or greater regional coordination would help alleviate these concerns. • Three sectors were chosen, each with the potential to alleviate poverty and contribute to human development. • Kazakhstan – textiles • Kyrgyzstan – agriculture and agricultural processing • Uzbekistan – textiles

  9. 4. Trade and hd impact assessment • There is an uneven, but generally challenging HD situation across the region • MDGs look unlikely uniformly to be reached • Poverty, health, environment and gender problems remain. • Any progress is largely despite the absence of pro-poor government policies; and is largely due to externally-driven economic growth. • Better policy can help increase the contribution of trade to HD and mitigate its ill-effects.

  10. The method in the Guide* was used to analyse some of the possible impacts of WTO accession on trade and HD: • TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS • TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS * Using UNDP Colombo (2008) ‘Human Development Impact Assessment of Trade’, 3 April draft

  11. TRADE POLICY CHANGE AND EXPECTED EFFECTS • Expected positive and negative effects • Who will gain or lose? TRANSMISSION CHANNELS • Fiscal, prices, production • Institutional environment • Data and knowledge constraints POST-ASSESSMENT CONSIDERATIONS • Monitoring and mitigation measures • Policy space

  12. 5. Conclusions and recommendations General: • Explicitly target the mainstreaming of trade into the development process. • Promote a broad-based dialogue on trade and human development issues. • Improve data on trade and human development.

  13. Trade-related • Conduct a systematic study of the ways in which the effects of WTO accession might be channelled • Harmonise existing regional trade agreements/ examine possibilities for multilateral liberalisation.

  14. Human development • Continue to work towards the MDGs • Adopt a regional approach to health and education • Continue to share lessons on gender • Specifically address labour mobility • Diversify into areas that improve HD • Address labour market issues

  15. Regional organisations • Coordinate trade facilitation measures • Help regional integration of trade liberalisation • Improve the delivery and coordination of road and rail transport infrastructure projects

  16. THANK YOU danielrgay@yahoo.co.uk www.emergenteconomics.com

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