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GFNorte: 3Q05 Results. November-2005. Contents. 3Q05 Results Snapshot of New Products Economic & Political Environment Final Remarks. 1. 3Q05 Results. GFNorte Highlights. Million Pesos. 9M04. 9M05. Net Income. 1,731. 4,487. 159%. Net Income w/o one offs. 1,938. 3,686. 90%. ROE.
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GFNorte: 3Q05 Results November-2005
Contents • 3Q05 Results • Snapshot of New Products • Economic & Political Environment • Final Remarks
GFNorte Highlights Million Pesos 9M04 9M05 Net Income 1,731 4,487 159% Net Income w/o one offs 1,938 3,686 90% ROE 15% 34% ROE w/o one offs 17% 28% Stock Price 53.78 96.15 79% Net Interest Margin 4.6% 8.0% EPS 3.43 8.89 159% P/BV 1.71 2.43 42% Performing Loan Growth 16% 22% Past Due Loan Ratio 3.3% 1.8% Reserve Coverage 128% 165%
Net Income Evolution Million Pesos Change 3T04 2T05 3T05 QoQ YoY Net Income w/o one offs 759 1,261 1,326 5% 75% Net Income 552 2,062 1,326 (36%) 140%
Net Income by Business Units Million Pesos Change 9M04 9M05 3Q04 3Q05 YoY QoQ Banking 1,382 3,941 185% 382 1,133 197% 229 371 62% Long Term Savings 125 140 12% 53 55 2% Brokerage 13 13 (1%) 81 136 69% Factoring and Leasing 37 41 9% - (10) N.C. Pronegocio - 2 N.C. (14) (5) N.C. Holding (5) (2) N.C. 1,731 4,487 159% GFNORTE 552 1,326 140%
Income Statement Million Pesos Change 3Q04 3Q05 9M04 9M05 QoQ YoY 2,660 3,295 24% Net Interest Income 7,181 9,572 33% 1,467 1,718 17% 4,488 4,826 8% Non Interest Income 1,163 1,168 - Services 3,353 3,325 (1%) 191 308 61% Recovery 452 562 24% 113 242 114% Forex and Trading 683 939 37% 4,127 5,013 21% 11,669 14,398 23% Total Income 3,035 2,855 (6%) 8,762 8,206 (6%) Non Interest Expense 1,092 2,158 98% Net Operating Income 2,907 6,192 113% (361) (459) 27% Loan Loss and Sharing Provisions (833) (1,098) 32% (56) 56 200% Non Operating Income (net) 22 1,026 4,583% (141) (460) 226% Income Tax and Profit Sharing (410) (1,687) 311% 18 32 78% Subsidiaries and Minority Interest 46 54 17% 552 1,326 140% Net Income 1,731 4,487 159%
ROE and ROA ROE ROA 3.4% 33.6% 15.3% Recurrent Profits Recurrent Profits 27.5% 2.8% 1% 9M04 9M05 9M04 9M05
Non Interest Expense 9M04 9M05 Total Expense 8.7 8.2 (6%) Billion Pesos Efficiency Ratio 75% 58% 53% Includes one offs 9M04 9M05
NIM vs. CETES 75% Percentages 9.7 9.0 9.5 8.1 7.1 87% 6.3 5.6 8.3 CETES 8.5 7.3 6.2 5.1 NIM 4.4 4.2 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 Note: Not drawn to scale
Core Deposits Billion Pesos Deposits 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 Demand 62 66 65 Time 38 38 38 Total 100 104 103 Mix Demand 62% 64% 63% Time 38% 36% 37% 100% 100% 100%
Performing Loan Portfolio Billion Pesos 101 96 83 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 Change 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 QoQ YoY Consumer 28 32 35 7% 25% Commercial 32 35 36 2% 14% Corporate 14 16 17 11% 24% 10 13 13 2% 31% Government Total 83 96 101 5% 22%
Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio Billion Pesos 35 32 28 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 Change 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 QoQ YoY Mortgage 16 19 20 6% 24% Car Loans 6 6 6 (1%) 1% Credit Cards 4 5 6 14% 58% Payroll Loans 2 2 3 19% 54% Consumer 28 32 35 7% 25%
Asset Quality Billion Pesos 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 Total Loan Portfolio 88 100 105 Past Due Loans 3.0 1.8 1.9 Loan Loss Reserves 3.7 2.9 3.1 Past Due Loan Ratio Reserve Coverage 165% 161% 3.3% 128% 1.8% 1.8% 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05 3Q04 2Q05 3Q05
Banking Sector’s Capitalization Ratio 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 Tier 1 11.4% 11.4% 14.9% Tier 2 2.4% 3.8% 3.2% TOTAL 13.8% 15.3% 18.1% Percentage of Tier 1 83% 75% 82%
Recovery Bank Million Pesos 9M03 9M04 9M05 Net Income 342 446 651 Portfolio 9M03 9M05 Managed 25% Proprietary 33% Proprietary 75% Managed 67%
Recovery Bank ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT Billion Pesos 65 64 60 59 56 18 Banorte Risk 17 21 23 47 20 Serfin 17 14 12 IPAB 27 26 24 11 21 5 3Q05 2001 2002 2003 3Q04
Recovery Bank Banorte has purchased 49% of the total portfolio auctioned in Mexico. In 3Q05, a total of Ps $12,595 million in book value was acquired. Nominal Value (million pesos) Price Paid (cents for every peso) Seller GMAC 8,945 4 2,484 34 Bancomer / IPAB Bancomer / IPAB 780 23 Banorte/ IPAB 386 39 Total 12,595 12
Long Term Savings Net Income Million Pesos Total 371 229 62% 9M04 9M05 Afore Insurance Annuities 132 193 46 108 97 25 88% 36% 79% 9M04 9M05 9M04 9M05 9M04 9M05
Snapshot of New Products Results up to September 30 + 76% vs July’05 • Clients: 10,477. • Portfolio: $232 million. • Average loan per client: $22,143 pesos. + 47% vs July’05 • Clients: 33,351. • Portfolio: $929 million. • Average balance per client: $27,855 pesos.
Snapshot of New Products Results up to September 30 + 49% vs July’05 • Opened accounts: 319,038. • Balance: $886 million pesos. • Average accounts opened daily: 1,690. • Banorte Fácil new accounts: 538 in 151 Telecomm offices. • Average balance per account: $ 2,122. • Estimated new accounts in one year: 96,600.
Snapshot of New Products • Characteristics: • Package of products and services oriented towards women. • Credit card and life insurance optional. Results up to September 30: • Opened accounts: 46,484. • Deposits: $1.12 billion pesos.
Economic Environment Mexico’s pace of growthhas slowed, but there are signs of recovery. GDP growth was close to 3% in 3Q05. Even though a moderate pace of growth is expected for the coming months, there are signs of some improvement. The economy is expected to post a real annual rate of 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2006. Job creation continues lagging employment needs. Fundamentals remain strong. Proactive public debt management has allowed Mexico to prepay obligations for the next 2 years. International reserves stand close to 70 billion dollars. Due tohigh oil prices and strong remittances, the expected current account deficit for 2005 is 1% of GDP and 1.2% for 2006.
Economic Environment Inflation is easing, but risks remain. Inflation is rapidly falling, allowing Banxico to start easing the monetary stance. Expected inflation for 2005 is 3.35% and for 2006 is 3.63%, within Banxico’s target range. Core inflation is currently at 3.2%, the lowest level ever registered. Risks remain, mainly due to high energy prices, volatility in agricultural prices, and inflation expectations. This, in addition to an uncertain political environment, will probably put upward pressure to interest rates. So far, the political environment has not affected market behavior. This could change in 2006.
Political Environment • Political heat is increasing as the parties select their candidates. PRI • Madrazo will run with an increasingly fragmented party. • Montiel resigned due to corruption scandals. • Mrs. Gordillo, Teacher’s Union and Governors will play an important role. PAN • Calderón won the process in spite of the imposition of Creel by los Pinos. • Party discipline is prevailing. • The PAN is back on the race. PRD • López Obrador is the man to beat. • Party frictions emerging due to Ebrard imposition in Mexico City by AMLO.
Performance of IPC vs. GFNorte Annual Change 2004 January – October 2005 83% 50% 31% 22% IPC Banorte IPC Banorte
Daily Turnover Million Dollars 7.8 6.7 2.6 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05
Market Capitalization Million Dollars 4,505 2,393 1,517 CAGR 72% 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05
Market Value Million Dollars P/E 16 2004 14 3,174 Sep 30 ‘05 12 2003 10 4,505 1,751 8 2002 2001 1,224 6 1,036 ROE 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28%
2005 Dividend CASH DIVIDEND • Minimum payout policy of 15% for third year in a row: • 2005: 24%. • 2004: 23%. • 2003: 18%. • Ps $1.25 pesos per share paid on October 20. • Yield (Oct 20): 1.4%.
2005 Dividend PAID IN CAPITAL INCREASE 3 new shares per existing one. Capital stays the same but liquidity increases. Shareholder’s Equity Million Pesos Before After Suscribed Capital $7,398 $12,696 $5,298 million = 1,514 million shares Earned Capital $12,574 $7,276 $19,972 $19,972 504.6 Million shares 2,018 Million shares Share Ratio 1:4
Challenges 2006 Recomposition of competitive map. Political environment: correct reading. Increase market share in deposits. Consolidation of new initiatives. Discipline in operating expenses. Strengthen position in mutual funds. Maintain discipline in risk management.