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Studying the History of Family Dynamics: the role of the WES

Studying the History of Family Dynamics: the role of the WES. John Ermisch University of Essex. The Women and Employment Survey. WES provided the first comprehensive birth and marriage histories for a nationally representative sample of women.

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Studying the History of Family Dynamics: the role of the WES

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  1. Studying the History of Family Dynamics: the role of the WES John Ermisch University of Essex

  2. The Women and Employment Survey • WES provided the first comprehensive birth and marriage histories for a nationally representative sample of women. • Can be used in conjunction with subsequent data to examine how family dynamics have changed across cohorts. • Example: dynamics of non-marital childbearing.

  3. The WES history data • Retrospective histories from 1980 X-section • Start and end dates for marriages • Dates of birth • No cohabiting union dates • Employment history data: • Dates of full-time, part-time and non-employment spells.

  4. Post-1980 nationally representative data • British Household Panel Study (BHPS) retrospective histories • Cohabiting unions, marriages and births • Updated with information during the panel, 1993-2003 • Also employment and job histories

  5. Example: Dynamics of Non-marital Childbearing Aggregate characterisation: • Proportion of births outside marriage • stability 1845-1965 (4-7%) • followed by explosion, particularly after 1980 • 42% in 2004. • Birth rates vs. Size of non-married population • Rise in age-specific rates 1975-90 • Rise in proportion not married 1970-2004

  6. Births Outside Marriage per 1000 births

  7. Birth rate Outside Marriage, per 1000 unmarried women

  8. Proportion of women not married

  9. Social Interaction Theory • An individual’s behaviour may depend on what others in society are perceived to be doing—’social influence’. • E.g. there may be social stigma associated with non-marital births when they are rare. • Gives rise to ‘multiplier effects’ or ‘multiple equilibria’.

  10. Who has a birth before marriage? • Costs of non-marital birth in terms of labour and marriage market opportunities lost are smaller for women with ‘poorer prospects’ in these markets • E.g. women with less education. • Expect women with ‘poorer prospects’ to be more likely to have a birth before marriage.

  11. Social interaction and differentials • If reference group for ‘social influence’ is people of a ‘similar background’, then differences in birth rates by education levels would be larger when non-marital childbearing is more common. • If reference group for ‘social influence’ is wider population, then educational differentials would be smaller when non-marital births are more common.

  12. Birth Cohort comparison • 1944-60, from WES (N=2,555 women) • ‘Stability cohorts’ • 1960-83, from BHPS (N=5,821 women) • ‘Post-explosion cohorts’ • Event history analysis of non-marital first birth: censored at first marriage or at time of last survey.

  13. Age Pattern of Non-marital First Birth Rate • 1944-60: • Peaks at age 20 and then declines. • Level at peak: about 1% per year. • 1960-83: • Initial peak at age 20 and remains relatively high until age 30, after which it declines. • Level at peak: about 3% per year.

  14. Association with Educational Attainment Non-marital birth rate relative to rate for women staying in full-time education longer: • 1944-60 cohort, left school before 16 (39%): Relative Risk (RR) =1.9 • 1960-83 cohort: left school before or at 16 (54%): RR=4.2 • Supports ‘local social influence’.

  15. Relative risk of non-marital birth for women leaving education ‘early’, by birth cohort

  16. First Births outside partnerships 1960-83 cohort • Age pattern • Initial peak at age 20 and remains relatively high until age 25, after which it declines. • Level at peak: about 2.5% per year. • Non-partnership birth rate relative to rate for women staying in full-time education longer: Left school before or at 16: RR=4.3

  17. First Births within cohabiting unions 1960-83 cohort • Union duration pattern • Peaks in first year and declines. • Level at peak: about 10% per year. • Cohabiting union birth rate relative to staying in full-time education longer: Left school before or at 16: RR=2.8

  18. Dynamics of First Marriage • 1944-60: • First marriage rate peaks at age 23 and then declines. • Median age at marriage about 22.5 (ONS: 22-23). • 1960-83: • First marriage rate peaks at 29. • Median age at marriage about 32 (ONS: 24, 1962 Cohort; 29, 1971 Cohort). • Age distribution has wider spread.

  19. Conclusions • WES provides historical information on the dynamics of marriage and births • Allows us to study how dynamics and ‘group differences’ have changed over time • May provide some insight into the presence of ‘social interaction’ effects • Illustrated with example of non-marital childbearing, which has exploded in recent years

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