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Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Tom Brocher Director, Earthquake Science Center U.S. Geological Survey June 1, 2014. The Goal. Provide a state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom

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Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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  1. Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Tom Brocher Director, Earthquake Science Center U.S. Geological Survey June 1, 2014

  2. The Goal • Provide a state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment for the Kingdom • Focus on characterizing earthquake faults within the Kingdom – earthquake chronology, slip per event, slip rates, magnitudes, style of faulting • Another focus will be ground motion prediction equations and site response within the Kingdom • Assessing extreme wave hazard along the coasts • Training is a major goal of the work

  3. Characterizing Earthquake Faults • Identifying and mapping young faults • Quaternary Geologic maps • Photos and Imagery • LiDAR • InSAR • Aeromagnetic mapping • Seismic reflection profiling

  4. Characterizing Earthquake Faults Conducting field and laboratory studies of faults • Field mapping • Geomorphic analysis • Trenching • Age dating of offset soils

  5. Predicting Strong Ground Motions • Compile existing strong ground motion data within the Kingdom and nearby regions • Derive ground motion prediction equations • Characterize crustal structure to regionalize the ground motion data • Characterize site response (Vs30) in the Kingdom • Imaging sedimentary basins for long period response

  6. Characterize strain rates in the Kingdom • Use GPS and InSAR data to estimate strain rates in the Kingdom • Compile earthquake catalog and generate a smoothed seismicity map for the Kingdom

  7. PSHA Analysis • Earthquake faults • Smoothed seismicity • Strain rates • Ground motion predictions • Site response (Vs30) Pascucci, Free, Lubkowski, 2008

  8. Who are we? • The Earthquake Science Center has many years of experience performing seismic hazard assessments in California and the US • Expertise in: • Paleoseismic investigations of faults • Geophysical characterization of faults • Prediction of strong ground motions • Geodesy and strain measurements • Earthquake monitoring • Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

  9. Earthquake Science Center Organization • Earthquake Monitoring (53 staff) • Earthquake Monitoring Project (28 staff) • Southern California Seismic Network (14 staff) • Deformation (13 staff) • Earthquake Hazard Assessment (48 staff) • Shaking, Damage, Failure (Earthquake Effects) (20 staff) • Southern California Earthquake Hazards Assessment (11 staff) • Pacific Northwest Hazards Project (10 staff) • Bay Area Earthquake Hazards (7 staff) • Earthquake Research (22 staff) • Earthquake Processes Probabilities and Occurrence (13 staff) • Induced Seismicity (9 staff)

  10. M 7.6 The first step in making hazard maps: construct a hazard curve at each site Hazard Methodology Procedure Cartoon a b Earthquake Sources a Ground motion Hazard curve r1 d1 d4 annual probability of exceeding pga peak ground acceleration r2 d2 M7.6 d3 high seismicity zone San Andreas fault 0.25g 0.5g distance peak ground acceleration (pga) r3

  11. Constructing a hazard curve: a real example 1/200=0.005 Source B M7.5, Tr=200 yr 50km 10km Site Source A M5.5, Tr=10 yr 1/10=0.10 Annual probability that earthquake occurs: Source A: 1/10 = 0.10 Source B: 1/200 = 0.005

  12. Consider the uncertainty in motions from GMPEs

  13. Consider the uncertainty in motions from GMPEs

  14. Combine the source and ground-motion uncertainties

  15. Plot the resulting FOE for the PSA value

  16. Do this for all possible ground motions from Source A to make a hazard curve for Source A

  17. Combine hazard curves for all source t make the final hazard curve

  18. Pick off value for hazard map

  19. Make a map of the ground-motion values for a given FOE; this is the hazard map that is the basis for the design maps included in building codes

  20. Note: different M and R limits than on slide for Anchorage

  21. Interferograms Used Spokane, Washington 4

  22. We invert for the Vertical and East components of deformation using the interferograms (2-5) shown in the previous slide. 5

  23. Comparison of best-fit model to data 8

  24. Comparison of best-fit model to data – Cross-Sections 9

  25. Model fault line in downtown Spokane, GoogleEarth Looking NE 11

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