Dmitri Trenin, Yuval Weber December 11, 2012

2. 1. Since 2012, Putin is focused on developing the Russian East. It was exemplified by the APEC summit in Vladivostok and the establishment of a special ministry for the Russian Far East. 2. Underdevelopment of Siberia and the Pacific seaboard is the most important geopolitical challenge that Russia is facing now and in the foreseeable future. The vision of Japan as a Germany in the east for Russia should be compelling to Russian strategists. Dmitri Trenin, Yuval Weber December 11, 2012

3. In the three neighboring Chinese provinces, 110 million lives in. 6.2 million

4. Northern Sea Route

5. Kuril Islands Vladivostok

6. Impression on Russia Cabinet Office, the Government of Japan 2012 29.3% 5%

7. Recent Public Opinion on Kuril dispute (Survey conducted in March by Mainichi news paper) 4% 67%

8. Why Public Opinion has changed and became flexible toward Russia? 1. Anti-Japan movement in China. 2. Russia seems to be better partner. 3. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. 4. Japanese people like Russian culture. The Snow Queen (Andersen, denmark. Soviet Film) The King of Japanese anime The King of Japanese movie Akira Kurosawa Hayao Miyazaki

9. Public Opinion Matters An approval rating on present cabinet is between 61% to 72% since his cabinet was organized. 66% of Japanese people who support Abe also support more flexible approach toward Russia. Between 1991 to 2013, there were fifteen Prime Ministers. Sinzo Abe 96th Prime Minister

10. Basic Understanding of the Northern Territories Issue • “Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan: Overview of the Issue of the Northern Territories” • The Northern Territories consist of four islands...They are: Habomai, Shikotan, • Kunashiri and Etorofu. The Northern Territories are not included in the Kurile • Islands. • (2) Japan discovered and surveyed the Four Northern Islands before the Russians • arrived there. In 1855, the Treaty of Commercer...drawing the boundary between • the islands of Etorofu and Uruppu. • (3) However, nearing the end of the Second World War, the Soviet Union, in • violation of the Neutrality Pact that was still in force between Japan and the • Soviet Union, opened the war with Japan. Even after Japan accepted the • Potsdam Declaration, Soviet forces continued its offensive against Japan and • occupied all of the Four Northern Islands. • (4) Subsequently, the Soviet Union unilaterally incorporated the territories under • occupation into its own territories without any legal grounds.

11. Japan's Basic Position • The Northern Territories are…illegally occupied by Russia. The Government of the United • States of America has also consistently supported Japan's position. • (2) …Japan has energetically continued negotiations with Russia on the basis of the • agreements and documents created by the two sides so far, such as the Japan-Soviet Joint • Declaration of 1956, the Tokyo Declaration of 1993, the Irkutsk Statement of 2001…2003. • (3) Japan's position is that if the attribution of the Northern Territories to Japan is confirmed, • Japan is prepared to respond flexibly to the timing and manner of their actual return. In • addition, since Japanese citizens who once lived in the Northern Territories were forcibly • displaced by Joseph Stalin, Japan is ready to forge a settlement with the Russian • government so that the Russian citizens living there will not experience the same tragedy. • In other words, after the return of the islands to Japan, Japan intends to respect the rights, • interests and wishes of the Russian current residents on the islands. • (4) The Japanese government has requested Japanese people not to enter the Northern • Territories without using the non-visa visit frameworks until the territorial issue is resolved. • Similarly, Japan cannot allow any activities, including economic activities by a third party, • which could be regarded as submitting to Russian “jurisdiction,” nor allow any activities • carried out under the presumption that Russia has “jurisdiction” in the Northern Territories. • Japan is of the policy to take appropriate steps to ensure that this does not happen. • “Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan: Overview of the Issue of the Northern Territories”

12. One of the Ideas to Solve the Issue 1. Leadersin both countries must have enough support to make the necessary compromises. Russia must give up more than many Russians think and Japan needs to receive less than most Japanese believe it ought to. 2. The only conceivable solution is a compromise betweenthe official Japanese position of transferring all four islands to Japan and the offer made by Moscow in 1956 to hand over two islands equivalent to 7 percent of the territory. Dmitri Trenin, Yuval Weber December 11, 2012

13. One of the Ideas to Solve the Issue 1. Russia should give up Shikotan and Habomai. 2. Japan should support economic activity in the islands and in Russia. Russia and Japan should establish a joint economic zone. 3. A political agreement. The entire area needs to be demilitarized, and Russia should initially continue to exercise sovereignty over the other two islands. After 50 years, Iturup and Kunashir will transition to Japanese law and sovereignty. The joint economic regime will continue for another 50 years, and Russian permanent residents will be free to stay on the islands. Dmitri Trenin, Yuval Weber December 11, 2012

14. Today Population at Kuril Islands

15. 2011 Disaster and Russian rescue. Expect. The end of April to May