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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings. Performed by the APLS 301 class Professor Bob Botsch , Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant. Methodology. N = 753 Sample design: 10 representative precincts Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size

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The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll: Overview of Key Findings

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  1. The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll:Overview of Key Findings Performed by the APLS 301 class Professor Bob Botsch, Director Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant

  2. Methodology • N = 753 • Sample design: • 10 representative precincts • Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size • Systematic sampling • Two time clusters • Response rate: 70% • Sample error: +/- 4% • Successfully matched presidential vote • Romney: actual 63%; sample 60% • Obama: actual 36%; sample 37%

  3. 2012 Vote by Party: an exercise in party loyalty—GOP advantage: 51%/33%

  4. Distant Hints of Change: Groups of Voters Trending Toward Democrats

  5. How These Groups are Different

  6. Decline on Tea Party Support • Tea Party supporters among 2010 voters: 42% • Tea Party supporters among 2012 voters: 30%

  7. Tea Party Republicans Generally to the Far Right of Other Pty Groups

  8. Continued-1 Non TP Rep’s

  9. Continued-2

  10. Continued-3

  11. Continued-4

  12. Independents closer to Dem on issues, but did not vote for Obama – Why? Ethnicity!

  13. Ethnic Antipathy (Blacks too much power; Muslim; ConfedFlag) Predicts Vote Among Whites

  14. The Gender/Marriage Gap in Aiken County and the Nation

  15. Conclusions • County heavily loyal to GOP • But some warning signs for the future—groups driving change • Young/single/in-migrants • More socially moderate • Tea Party support lower • Tea Party Republicans quite different across range of issues/attitudes/identities • Obama hurt by white independent vote—increasing ethnic polarization • Ethnic antipathy a major factor—as important as party (and intertwined with party) • Little Gender Gap, but large Republican Marriage Gap and large Democratic Singles Gap—Singles only group that mirror national gap

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