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Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models

Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models. Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WV October 11, 2002 Presented by Brian Murray.

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Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models

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  1. Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WVOctober 11, 2002 Presented by Brian Murray P.O. Box 12194 · 3040 Cornwallis Road · Research Triangle Park, NC 27709Phone: 919-541-6468 · Fax: 919-541-6683 · bcm@rti.org · www.rti.org

  2. Policy/economic setting for GHG mitigation • Market or government offers $X/ton of C sequestered in time period t … • Principle of marginality: Landowners will undertake sequestration until the marginal cost = $X/ton • Economic models need to capture • The resource and opportunity costs of sequestration actions • How these actions translate to changes in terrestrial carbon stocks over time • Ex ante perspective • Projecting the carbon and monetary consequences of alternative future actions

  3. Mitigation analysis needs (continued) • Sequestration actions are location-specific, so change in forest C stock estimates needed by … • Region • Forest type • Site conditions • Previous land use • Harvested product destination • FORCARB, tied to forest inventory data, captures these elements • Note: Economic models do not need a lot of C pool detail, except for product pool disposition over time • Also need info on Ct effects of changes in • Management actions • Climatological and other natural conditions

  4. A common approach for calibrating C changes to forest management regimes … is this the best way ?

  5. Question: Can we get the folllowing from FORCARB2 ? • Most recent tabular outputs, reflecting changes of last several years • Most people rely on the tables published in the American Forests pub. of 1996 • Underlying detail on the sub-models (equations, parameters, regional differences etc…) • Inventory detail used for public lands components

  6. Temporal aspects of C Stock Changes due to climate and other factors • Trend • E.g., effects of changes in climate, precip, CO2, and other factors on forest growth • Variability • If landowners are to be paid directly on actual C increments, payments will vary with yields • Variability will affect adoption probability of risk averse landowners • EU($1, 2=1) > EU($1, 2=2)

  7. Can Economic Models offer Anything to Biophysical Models? • Economic drivers of ecological change • Harvesting • Management • Land Use Change

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