1 / 7

Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models

Explore the intersection of economic and biophysical models in forest management, emphasizing GHG mitigation analysis and temporal aspects of carbon stock changes. Presented at a forum discussing the policy and economic setting for forest carbon sequestration actions.

twaldschmidt
Download Presentation

Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Forest Biophysical Models: Challenges of and Opportunities for use in Economic Models Presented at Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum Shepherdstown, WVOctober 11, 2002 Presented by Brian Murray P.O. Box 12194 · 3040 Cornwallis Road · Research Triangle Park, NC 27709Phone: 919-541-6468 · Fax: 919-541-6683 · bcm@rti.org · www.rti.org

  2. Policy/economic setting for GHG mitigation • Market or government offers $X/ton of C sequestered in time period t … • Principle of marginality: Landowners will undertake sequestration until the marginal cost = $X/ton • Economic models need to capture • The resource and opportunity costs of sequestration actions • How these actions translate to changes in terrestrial carbon stocks over time • Ex ante perspective • Projecting the carbon and monetary consequences of alternative future actions

  3. Mitigation analysis needs (continued) • Sequestration actions are location-specific, so change in forest C stock estimates needed by … • Region • Forest type • Site conditions • Previous land use • Harvested product destination • FORCARB, tied to forest inventory data, captures these elements • Note: Economic models do not need a lot of C pool detail, except for product pool disposition over time • Also need info on Ct effects of changes in • Management actions • Climatological and other natural conditions

  4. A common approach for calibrating C changes to forest management regimes … is this the best way ?

  5. Question: Can we get the folllowing from FORCARB2 ? • Most recent tabular outputs, reflecting changes of last several years • Most people rely on the tables published in the American Forests pub. of 1996 • Underlying detail on the sub-models (equations, parameters, regional differences etc…) • Inventory detail used for public lands components

  6. Temporal aspects of C Stock Changes due to climate and other factors • Trend • E.g., effects of changes in climate, precip, CO2, and other factors on forest growth • Variability • If landowners are to be paid directly on actual C increments, payments will vary with yields • Variability will affect adoption probability of risk averse landowners • EU($1, 2=1) > EU($1, 2=2)

  7. Can Economic Models offer Anything to Biophysical Models? • Economic drivers of ecological change • Harvesting • Management • Land Use Change

More Related