1 / 26

US-India Workshop on Development and Application of Climate Projections for Climate Resilience

Dr. Nitish Dogra, Fulbright Fellow, discusses the importance of setting up a climate and health database and presents a case study on the impact of climate change on health in two adjacent districts near Gurgaon, India.

twoodruff
Download Presentation

US-India Workshop on Development and Application of Climate Projections for Climate Resilience

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop on Development and Application of Downscaling Climate Projections Pune, 7-9th March, 2017 Dr. Nitish Dogra, MD, MPH Fulbright Fellow (2013-14) Consultant, UCHAI

  2. Outline Fulbright Work UCHAI National Database Case Study

  3. Fulbright Work

  4. National Database

  5. Rationale Why set up a climate and health database? • Climate change is an emerging issue but in the years ahead the problem is expected to increase. • Baseline is essential to compare the natural course as also the effectiveness of interventions. • Climate and health gradients will vary across districts and climate zones. • National burden of disease estimates not possible without adequate number of sites (minimum 60).’ • Future estimates requirement

  6. Data Requirements • Historical  • Last 10 year daily rainfall, temperature (max, min and mean), humidity • Predictive • 7 day temperature and rainfall  • Projection • Temperature and rainfall How far into the future...2020, 2025 and 2030...beyond?

  7. Aim of this Group work • 3) Site Meteorological station in vicinity of Community Health Centre (since rainfall cannot generally be extrapolated beyond 15 km

  8. Aim of this Group work • 4) Approach • A) Community Medicine MD thesis through grant contest • B) Through State Health Program officers • C) Via UCHAI researchers • D) IMS collaboration • E) NCDC and IMD collaboration

  9. Time Period 5) Time period • 3 years

  10. Challenge1: Weather data external validity Health data from district will not coincide with historical station data

  11. Solution1: Weather data external validity Collect data at CHC level

  12. Challenge 2: Health data external validity Besides government health facility • Private practitioners • Indigenous system • RMPs (quacks) • Treatment at home

  13. Solution 2: Health data external validity • Community based prospective cohort studies at each of India’s climate zones • Best to use existing sites like Vadu at KEM

  14. CASE STUDY Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  15. Site Selection TWO ADJACENT DISTRICTS NEAR GURGAON (MEWAT AND REWARI IN NORTH INDIA) Same climate zone (semi-arid) Sensitivity differs radically (women, children, poor) Barriers to adaptation are also markedly at variance Hence best place to study how climate change impacts health Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  16. Background • Guidance document on V&A • Workplan Presentation: 2010 PAHO/WHO Global • Workshop in Costa Rica • WHO SEARO supported and guided project • First of it’s kind exercise in South-East Asia • Climate-proofing of interventions Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  17. Objectives • To assess the baseline vulnerability for climate-sensitive diseases at the local level in India • To construct a pilot tool for assessment of health • vulnerability to climate change at the sub-national • level in India (SEPARATE STUDY) Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  18. Scope • Diarrhoeal diseases • Vector-borne diseases • Heat stress Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  19. Methods:Quantitative • Time-series analysis • Household survey • GIS Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  20. Results:Quantitative • Time-series analysis • MEWAT: 1o rise in temp= 3.2% rise in diarrhoea • REWARI: 1o rise in temp= 4.3% rise in diarrhoea • Household survey • Community based study with contrasting findings Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  21. Results: Qualitiative • Key informant interviews • Focus group discussions (FGDs) • o Both the above constitute additional evidence • bringing out health access issues. • o Provide a clue to the apparently contradictory • findings of the time-series analysis. Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  22. Discussion • Prospective time-series studies required. • Detailed household surveys may not be feasible. • GIS methods need to be evolved. • Qualitiative methods apart from FGD and KII. • Mixed methods with community studies essential. Source: all-free-download.com/free-photos/download/earth_dry_dehydrated_223112.html

  23. Thank-You Source: http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200707/r157677_571889.jpg

More Related