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Fire Weather / Predictive Services

Fire Weather / Predictive Services. John Snook North Ops PS Unit Manager IASC at Clovis CA – 4/1/08. Predictive Services. The P redictive S ervices U nits ( PSU ) at Redding and Riverside each have three to four CWCG- hired meteorologists

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Fire Weather / Predictive Services

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  1. Fire Weather / Predictive Services John Snook North Ops PS Unit Manager IASC at Clovis CA – 4/1/08

  2. Predictive Services The Predictive Services Units (PSU) at Redding and Riverside each have three to four CWCG- hired meteorologists each, as well as two Intel staff. There is one other PSU position, which oversees RAWS coordination, NFDRS and WIMS region-wide. The PSU provide products that concentrate mainly on the 2-7 day time frame, but do have products extending out to monthly and seasonal realms. A key mission is to provide local to national-level managers the information they need to maximize the cost-efficient use of available resources. The California PSUs have positions additional to the national PS program template. These are for the purposes of Smoke Manage-ment and the heavy firefighter training workload in the region. We coordinate with CA Air Resources Board and local air districts, attempting to maximize Prescribed burning opportunities while avoiding adverse impacts on public health.

  3. National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Along with Predictive Services, the NWS, operating from 10 offices in 4 states, helps to deliver the R-5 Fire Weather program. The NWS concentrates on operational forecasts and warnings in the shorter term, Days 1-3. To do this, they utilize staffs of about 10 ‘Core’ forecasters, who work rotating shifts to cover all NWS program areas. Each NWS office designates a forecaster as their Fire Weather program leader. The NWS provides these products and services: Narrative fire weather forecasts (FWFs and ECCDAs), National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) trend forecasts, the Red Flag program, Spot forecast service, some training (primarily S-290), and Met service at Incidents (IMETs). The NWS websites also provide useful climatological tools, doppler radar data, and public warning information. .

  4. CONTACT INFORMATION: Redding Fire Weather Center Office: 530.226.2730 FAX: 530.226.2742 http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/index.htm Staff:John Snook, Brenda Belongie, Steve Leach, Basil Newmerzhycky Riverside Fire Weather Center Office: 951.276.6520 FAX: 951.276.6439 http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/index.htm Staff:Tom Rolinski, Matt Shameson and two (?) vacancies

  5. HOURS OF OPERATION IN 2008: Redding: From about 5/10 to 11/05: 7 days/week 7 am – 5 pm Until about 5/10 and after 11/05: Mon-Fri 7 am – 5 pm Riverside: From about 5/1 to 10/31: 7 days/week 6 am – 4 pm From about 11/1 to 4/30: Mon-Fri 5:30 am – 3:30 pm

  6. http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/myfiles/oscc_weather_op_plan.pdfhttp://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/myfiles/oscc_weather_op_plan.pdf The FW AOP documents the provision of the fire weather program jointly from the Predictive Ser-vices and the National Weather Service. It has information on a host of topics, with several of these listed on the next frame. III

  7. The Fire Weather Annual Operating Plan is updated annually, following • an Interagency meeting in March. The new (2008) version will be posted • to the PS and NWS websites in May. Below are the main AOP sections: • I. INTRODUCTION • CHANGES FOR 2008 • III. SERVICE AREAS FOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES • AND PREDICTIVE SERVICE UNITS (some very useful maps in this • section) • NWS SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES • V. WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES • JOINT RESPONSIBILITIES • VII. AGENCY SIGNATURES / EFFECTIVE DATES OF AOP • APPENDICES: (Including Appendices covering Forecast parameters, • Links to both NWS and PSU forecast/product examples, Coordination calls • Info, PSU and NWS office contact information, and FW Program Assess- • ment Team charter.

  8. This is the home page of the National Predictive Services Unit at NIFC/NICC http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/

  9. Predictive Service Areas in northern California NE California PSA Eastside PSA Northwestern Mountain PSA North Coast PSA NOPS- Redding Sac Valley/ Foothills PSA Northern Sierra PSA Mid Coast to Mendocino PSA SF Bay Area PSA

  10. Here are a couple of closer-up examples. Notice that the Fire Danger Rating Areas (FDRA) are the basic building blocks of a PSA. Lassen NF Klamath NF Plumas NF Shasta-Trinity NF Six Rivers NF Calfire Units Tahoe NF El Dorado NF Northwestern Mtns PSA Northern Sierra PSA

  11. in Central and Southern CA SOPS- Riverside

  12. Predictive Service Products: • Seven-Day Significant Fire Potential:Issued daily throughout fire season in all Geographic Areas, and year-around in CA. Has become a very popular product for many fire personnel. • Daily Weather Outlook:A tool for quick self-briefings, displaying gridded humidity data and general winds for Days 1 and 2, with a PS-written Synopsis, and 3-7 day FW highlights. • Monthly Fire Danger / Fire WeatherOutlook: A detailed look at the month ahead, issued on the 1st of each new month. • Fire Season Outlooks:Produced twice a year by both GACC’s, usually a preliminary by May 1st and final by July 1st. (Updated end of Aug if needed) ADDITIONALLY IN CALIFORNIA: • Site-specific (Spot) forecasts: whenever Smoke dispersion is an issue • Smoke Transport/ Stability forecast:Produced daily whenever significant burn activity is occurring (most of the year).

  13. http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/index.htm

  14. 7-Day Significant Fire Potential • The product is broken out for each PSA within a Geographic Area, and for each of Days 1-7. It combines effects of weather, fuels, and resources. • Research was done on correlations between past weather (RAWS), fuel dryness levels, & large fire occurrence. Weather models are applied to predict future RAWS weather and its effect on fuel dryness. This leads to prediction of when and where potential for significant and/or large fires is greatest Days 1-7. Lightning and wind events can be added as ‘triggers’. Conceptual Model Simplified

  15. 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product High Risk Days A high risk day is a day where an ignition or significant weather trigger and an appropriate level of fuel dryness combine to create conditions that historically have resulted in a significant fire event for a particular area. Combining Weather, Fuels, and Resources dddd Significant Weather or Ignition Trigger Fuel Dryness Levels Resource Information

  16. . Here’s an example from a windy day in NOPS

  17. Northern California Daily Outlook… Issued: Wednesday Feb. 13, 2008 (a good self-briefing tool) 3-7 Day Outlook Friday through Tuesday:

  18. http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_outlook.pdfhttp://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_outlook.pdf

  19. In reviewing the recent weather, we often include precipitation PON and Temp DFN info

  20. WRITTEN FORECAST SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2008:

  21. North Ops September 2007 Outlook North Ops April 2008 Outlook Example of two North Ops monthly Fire Potential maps, one from an Outlook last fire season, and the other ‘hot off the press’

  22. Summary of links for routine, California PS Unit products: 7-Day Significant Fire Potential: NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire_Potential.html SOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/Fire_Potential.html Daily Weather Outlook: NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/DailyOutlook.html SOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/daily_product/DailyOutlook.html Monthly Outlook: NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_outlook.pdf SOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/psamonth.pdf Seasonal Outlook: NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/seasonal_outlook.pdf SOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/assessment.pdf

  23. Other products and services provided by CAPredictive Services Unitsin 2008: • Briefings daily in fire season, and miscellaneous conference calls on request. We routinely hold conference with the NWS offices on fire season mornings that have either ‘Red Flag’ weather going, IMETs in field, etc.. NEW in 2008 – Available via VTC(and hopefully Web download/playback ) • Training (Fire Weather…all S-series classes e.g. S-290, 390; Smoke-related, e.g. RX-410; Burn boss, e.g.RX-300; NFDRS (S-491); WIMS, ECC sessions; Weather observations) • Site-specific (Spot) forecasts for prescribed burns where smoke transport is a potential issue. [Redding does 500-1000 of these annually!] • Smoke Transport /Stability Forecast • Daily Smoke Coordination Conference call: participants are GACC Met, CARB, burners, and air districts. Call held at 1300 LT throughout the year, as necessary. These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc. When burn location and/or meteorology make it feasible, the PS GACC mets can advocate for our burners in Marginal burn day situations. • Technical Assistance (WIMS and NFDRS help, RAWSsiting visits, other field meteorology assistance, climatology, and other miscellaneous)

  24. A click on our home page will bring you to this forecast Just click on ‘Daily Smoke Forecast’ in the Smoke Monitoring subsection. an example of our daily Smoke Transport / Stability forecast

  25. To the left is a new look for this product, that we are experi- menting with lately. Tom Rolinski and Basil Newmerzhycky are the leads on it.

  26. Daily Smoke Coordination conference all: • Redding and Riverside Predictive Services • co-host a Conference call at 1300 local time. • Dial: 1-877-874-5440 Passcode: 357238 • These calls are held daily from spring burning season through the fall burning season, and as needed in winter. • Participants include CARB, the Air districts, burners, and GACC meteorologists from the 2 Predictive Services Units. • These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc.

  27. Here’s what we try hard to help our burners avoid, as they work to accomplish the prescribed burning.

  28. Site-Specific (Spot) Weather Forecasts ·  Have the detail the General forecast lacks ·  Can be tailored to the most critical time periods ·  Include the effects of topography: -   Local winds, and windshifts -  Inversions, and time of dissipation - Slope and aspect considerations

  29. To obtain a Spot forecast, • an on-site weather observation • is mandatory! • Observations should be both: • Representativeof the site • Timely

  30. Relative Humidity Rule of Thumb: For every 20ºF increase in air temperature, the RH decreases by about half

  31. This frame shows the top half of the Spot Request form

  32. And here is the rest of the form

  33. SPOT FORECAST EXAMPLE REDDING INTERAGENCY FIRE WEATHER OFFICE 0830 PST Wednesday Nov. 28, 2007 Spot Forecast for North Coble burn, Hat Creek RD, Lassen NF T34N R5E Secs 1,2 and T35N R5E Secs 34,35 Elev 4800-4900’ Flat to North aspects 99-300 ac Fuel: Brush, timber, and slash Procter Creek drainage Based on weather from Ladder Butte RAWS ending 0718 PST today. 24-hr max/min info: Temps 39/25 RH 95/35/73% Winds mainly NE 5-9 gusts 11-13 mph overnight, but latest ob has NW 6 though peak gust south 14 mph *** NOTE - All forecast winds are 20-ft level (per your request) unless noted otherwise *** Discussion:High pressure aloft will strengthen today, with NE to east gradient winds in the morning, giving way to predominantly SE breezes this afternoon. Another cool but likely dry low pressure trough will swing from NW to SE across northern CA in two phases from late tomorrow into Saturday morning. SW to West gradient winds could increase some on ridges tonight. High pressure rebuilds some on late Sat. into Sunday, before a more moist and mild Pacific trough moves into northwest CA by late Monday. At this time, it looks like about an 80% chance of rain from that system, but with light totals - probably .10” or less. Today:Mostly sunny with CWR 0%. Max temps 42-47, with minimum RH 24-32% this afternoon. Wind primarily NE to SE 2-6 gusts 9-11 mph this morning, becoming mainly SE to South 3-7 gusts 10-13 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height will barely reach 1000’ AGL, with transport winds NE or East 5-8 mph this morning, becoming SE to SSW 7-11 mph in the afternoon. Tonight: ……….. Thursday: ……….. Outlook for Friday through Sunday: …………..

  34. Upon request, we do Spots for long-term WFUs. This was Kingsley, MNF in ’06.

  35. The ROMAN program is an excellent way to keep track of what the observations around your PSA are showing. These weather obs can come from a variety of agencies. From the National Forests, they are nearly all RAWS stations.

  36. ROMAN can also provide you a 5-Day Table of Max/Min Temps, RH, or Winds. The example below is the Relative Humidity in CA’s far southern mountains, over the final 5 days of March 2008.

  37. You can find this product on the Predictive Services ‘Fuels/ Fire Danger’ page, right hand side Statewide, on Monday afternoon, 3/31/8 Southern CA in Feb ‘07

  38. Online product coming soon – This is not online yet, but regression equation work to finalize it will be done soon. Russ Gripp and Tom Rolinski, working with CEFA/DRI, are Predictive Svcs product developers for it.

  39. CEFA has made several formatting improvements in the past 6 months…. This menu used to be oriented vertically Added a time non- mets can read 4-km products now extend through 72 hours

  40. NEW

  41. NEW – Tahoe Basin area map. 33-hr Forecast of Mixing Heights, Valid 1300 PDT 4/1/08 Ft AGL

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