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WP 3.3.1

WP 3.3.1. Future chemical composition changes from different modes of transport. Set-up of the runs for evaluating future impact. Objectives: - estimate changes in future chemical composition from different modes of transport - provide input data of future chemical changes for impact studies

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WP 3.3.1

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  1. WP 3.3.1 Future chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Set-up of the runsforevaluating future impact Quantify A3 workshop

  2. Objectives: - estimate changes in future chemical composition from different modes of transport - provide input data of future chemical changes for impact studies Start date: month 8 (01 OCT 2005) End date: month 18 (31 AUG 2006) Quantify A3 workshop

  3. - use global scale CTMs • first-order studies of future chemical impact • target year 2050 • - O3, CH4, and particle distributions (sulfate, organic carbon aerosols) • - use emission data for future changes provided by Activity 1 (SRES, EDGAR) • - provide perturbed fields to WPs 6 and 7 • - model simulations with improved future emission scenarios will start after month 18 Quantify A3 workshop

  4. Quantify A3 workshop

  5. Deliverables: D3.3.1.1: Report with first-order estimate of the future impact D3.3.1.2: Database with chemical perturbation fields Total man months for each partner for the first 18 months: UiO: 12, KNMI: 14, ETHZ: 6, LSCE-CEA: 12, MPICHEM: 10, UCAM: 12, UCI: 8 Milestones and expected results: - Detailed description of model simulations to be performed (“month 10, 31 DEC 2005”) - Results from first simulations (“month 12, 28 FEB 2006”, suggest month 14, 30 APR 2006) (emissions available?) - Report with preliminary estimate of future impact (“month 15, 31 MAY 2006”, suggest month 18, 31 Aug 2006) Quantify A3 workshop

  6. Exp I: Ozone change and radiative forcing: 1850, 2000, 2100 • Lead: M. Gauss • 10 modeling groups participate (both CCMs and CTMs) • Ozone changes are calculated globally for the troposphereand the lower stratosphere • Calculation of radiative forcing (G. Myhre, K. Shine, L. Gohar) Earlier experience: ACCENT IA3 model assessments • Exp II: AQ-climate feedback: 2000, 2030 • Lead: F. Dententer, D. Stevenson, K. Ellingsen, H. Eskes • 25 modeling groups participate (both CCMs and CTMs) • Atmospheric change in the troposphere on regional and global scales • Emphasis on the synergetic effect of air quality and climate gas emissions, on human health, and vegetation exposure • Calculation of radiative forcing Quantify A3 workshop

  7. Quantify A3 workshop

  8. Learning from our experience with OxComp (2001) and ACCENT IA3 (2005) Quantify A3 workshop

  9. Present runs: Differences among the models with respect to emissions? Future runs: SRES or IIASA (if available) scenarios? Changes in biomass burning? (probably still too uncertain) Use the same delta emission for all models? What about lightning emissions? Time slice simulations with repeated meteorology? Include climate change? (if yes, where to get the data from? SSTs?) Spin-up length? (focus on tropospheric/stratospheric issues) Integration length? How many simulations? I/O format (suggestion: netCDF). Very important: Every model group has to comply with format specifications! Quantify A3 workshop

  10. Species in red are mandatory Model output: as in Aerocom / Accent / Quantify WP3.1? Basic philosophy: Better too much than too little output Ozone (mixing ratio) monthly means, daily means? Budgets! (tp flux, dry dep., chem. prod. and loss) CH4 lifetime (yr), ozone precursors? SO4 (mixing ratio), rel. humidity (fraction), 3-hourly? SO2 (mixing ratio)? Sulphate budget: SO2  dry dep., SO4, etc. (kg/month) H2O2, OH? BC/OC (g/m3), output frequency? Others? Quantify A3 workshop

  11. Suggested site for data upload: • http://norgrid.uio.no/mySRB • - password protected • - more secure than ftp • - upload possible either through web interface or shell commands • after some childhood diseases we’ve had positive experience within ACCENT UiO to send out detailed experimental setup before end of December 2005 Quantify A3 workshop

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