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Counting Crime

Counting Crime. Methods for Counting Crime? Current Crime Numbers/Trends Explaining the Crime Drop . Uniform Crime Reports. Self- Report Surveys. Victim Surveys. Methods of Measuring Crime. Based on Crimes Reported to the Police. Based on a population unit of 100,000 people.

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Counting Crime

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  1. Counting Crime Methods for Counting Crime? Current Crime Numbers/Trends Explaining the Crime Drop

  2. Uniform Crime Reports Self- Report Surveys Victim Surveys Methods of Measuring Crime

  3. Based on Crimes Reported to the Police Based on a population unit of 100,000 people Divided into two representative categories: Indexed and non-Indexed Reported for U.S., Cities, and SMSA’s Crimes known / Arrest = Clearance Rate Uniform Crime Reports

  4. Violent Crime Non-violent Crime • Part I “Index” Crimes • Criminal Homicide • Forcible Rape • Robbery • Aggravated assault • Burglary • Larceny/theft • Motor vehicle theft • Arson • Part II Crimes • All others except traffic Uniform Crime Reports

  5. Cannot capture the “dark figure” of crime Methodological Hiccups • Counting Rule • Reporting Practices • Attempted vs. Completed Crimes Criticisms and Limitations of the UCR

  6. National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) • Maintained by the F.B.I. • Twenty-two crime categories • More information on each crime in each category • Data compiled based on incidents, not arrests. The Future of the Uniform Crime Reports

  7. Self-Report Surveys • Participants (usually juveniles) reveal information about their violations of the law Advantages • Get at “Dark Figure of Crime” • “Victimless Crimes” • Compare to “official data” • Measure theoretical concepts and connect with criminal behavior

  8. Percent Reporting Nonmedical Drug Use, by Type of Drug, Past 12 Months (UMD Survey, 2012)

  9. Self-Reported Academic Dishonesty, Past 12 Months

  10. Disadvantages • May underestimate “chronic offenders” • People Can Lie • Survey Methodology Problems • Seriousness of Offense • No “National” survey for trends • Exception = MTF for drugs/alcohol Self-Report Surveys

  11. National Crime Victimization Survey 1. Asks victims about their encounters with criminals 2. Nationally representative sample 3. May also describe people most at risk 4. Limitations: Little information about offenders Cannot assess some crimes Limitations of Survey Research

  12. UCR • Aggregate Data (see trends), Crimes known to police • Self-report • Individual level data, links offender characteristics to criminal offending • NCVS • Aggregate Data (see trends), victimizations REVIEW

  13. Crime Trends • Is crime increasing, decreasing or stable? • Why? • Correlates of Crime • What factors are related to crime? • Geographic location, Age, Race, Gender, Social Class? Crime Trends and Correlates of Crime

  14. UCR and NCVS data reveal a steady decrease in violent crime since the mid 1990s • The decrease is being driven by a sharp decline in violent crime among juveniles. • NCVS indicates a long term trend of decreasing property crime • Some difference with UCR data Crime Trends

  15. Duluth Violent Crime 1986-2010

  16. MN vs. National Violent Crime (per 100,000 citizens)

  17. The usual suspects • Age Composition • The Economy • Social malaise • Guns—Availability • Justice Policy—Police or Prisons • Reality? Difficult to predict trends Explaining Crime Trends

  18. Drop driven by young males in inner city areas • Decline of the “Crack Cocaine” wars • The “blunt” era • Change in inner city culture • Mass incarceration • Fringe Explanations • Freakonomics: Was it Abortion? • Was it a drop in lead exposure? The Crime Drop (1990s-present)

  19. Demographics • Age • Sex • Race Correlates of Crime

  20. UCR, NCVS, and SR data all indicate that males are more likely than females to commit criminal acts • Socialization? • Biological differences? • Feminist explanations GENDER AND CRIME

  21. SR weak if any relationship • Official data  strong relationship • Is relationship due to bias? • How police patrol and interact with minorities • Disparity in how CJS processes minorities? • NCVS data confirms some “true” race-crime relationship. Why does race predict crime? • Relationship to class, neighborhood, culture RACE AND CRIME

  22. The Age-Crime Curve

  23. Crime is “young” persons game • HOWEVER • There is a group of “chronic” offenders that persist in crime after adulthood • The “Chronic” 6% Age and Crime

  24. Cohort studies clearly show that most chronic juvenile offenders continue their law-violating careers as adults. Continuity of Crime Then and ………….. NOW

  25. Criminals and victims tend to look the same demographically • Most crime is intra-racial • Victimization for most crimes most likely among • Young • Male • Urban Crime Victimization

  26. We have no “UCR” mechanism to gauge white collar crime • How to assess insider trading, environmental crimes, corporate crime? • Most large corporate crime prosecutions in in a settlement What is counted, “counts”

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