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How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable?

Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London. How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable? How do we avoid the unmanageable?

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How certain can we be about climate change? How do we manage the unavoidable?

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  1. Climate change: the latest evidence Professor Mike Hulme Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London • How certain can we be about climate change? • How do we manage the unavoidable? • How do we avoid the unmanageable? • Finding policy alliances for climate change

  2. can we be certain about climate change?

  3. UK warming

  4. Physical evidence …the Vernagt Glacier, Austria

  5. Extreme central European summer temperature … 2003 Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004

  6. CO2 concentrations

  7. Risk of overshooting 2ºC target Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen

  8. Changes in ocean pH pH reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 by 2100 under IS92a (i.e., a 100% to 150% increase in [H+]) Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)

  9. how do we manage the unavoidable? … building a resilient society

  10. Tools for adaptation planning UK national climate scenarios Risk assessment framework UK climate change programme

  11. Heatwave 2003 – health care • Record high temperatures (>37°C) in southeast England (and west-central Europe) in early August 2003 • 15,000 premature deaths across west-central Europe, mostly the elderly • This led to UK National Health Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for England” to minimise future adverse effects on human health

  12. Public investment

  13. how do we avoid the unmanageable? ... building a low carbon economy

  14. Decoupling growth, consumption and emissions Source: UK Climate Change Programme

  15. Trade, tax or technology?

  16. Negotiating beyond 2012 Source: David Victor

  17. finding policy alliances for climate change

  18. policy alliances • energy security • ‘making poverty history’ • environmental protection • energy efficiency

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