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North Dakota Pipeline Authority Williston Basin Petroleum Conference May 23, 2012 – Bismarck, ND

North Dakota Pipeline Authority Williston Basin Petroleum Conference May 23, 2012 – Bismarck, ND. North Dakota Crude Oil. Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD . Today. Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should

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North Dakota Pipeline Authority Williston Basin Petroleum Conference May 23, 2012 – Bismarck, ND

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  1. North Dakota Pipeline Authority Williston Basin Petroleum Conference May 23, 2012 – Bismarck, ND

  2. North Dakota Crude Oil

  3. Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD Today Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.

  4. Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD Case 1 Today Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.

  5. Challenges* • Moving oil out of the Williston Basin • Moving oil within the Williston Basin 2 1 *Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines

  6. Williston Basin Oil Transportation March 2010 March 2011 March 2009 March 2012 7

  7. 25,000 BOPD 210,000 BOPD 58,000 BOPD 145,000 BOPD

  8. BNSF Crude Rail Locations • Existing • Dore – Musket - Unit • Trenton – Savage – Manifest/Unit • Williston – Red River Supply - Manifest • Tioga – Hess - Unit • Manitou – Plains - Unit • Ross – Bakken Transload - Manifest • Stanley – EOG - Unit • Minot – ND Port Services- Manifest • Zap/Republic – Basin Transload - Unit • Eland – BOE - Unit • Dickinson – Centennial - Manifest • Gascoyne – Enserco – Manifest/Unit • Planned • Epping – Rangeland – Unit (June 2012) • Berthold – Enbridge - Unit • Fryburg – Great Northern - Unit 5 6 4 7 3 1 2 8 2 1 9 11 10 3 12

  9. CP Crude Rail Locations 1 • Existing • Stampede – US Development • Donnybrook - Centennial • New Town – Dakota Plains • Van Hook– US Development 2 4 3

  10. Williston Basin Truck Imports/Exports Information collected through the United States International Trade Commission’s Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb

  11. Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD Rail Today Proposed Pipelines Pipelines Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. *Projects still in the proposed or internal review process 12

  12. Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD Rail Today Pipelines Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. *Projects still in the proposed or internal review process

  13. The “Need” for Rail* • Assumptions* • Case 1 Production Forecast • All pipelines, includingproposed are running at full capacity • Ignores the “want” to rail volumes • Ignores trucking to/from Canada 14

  14. Utilizing Rail Long Term • Unknowns • Fate of Proposed Pipeline Projects • Brent-Bakken Pricing • Pipeline Access to Premium Markets • Rail Prices Relative to Pipelines • Contractual Commitments ? ? 15

  15. High-Low Rail Estimate, BOPD 16

  16. Challenges* • Moving oil out of the Williston Basin • Moving oil within the Williston Basin 2 1 *Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines 17

  17. Crude Oil Gathering USGS Image

  18. North Dakota Crude Gathering February 2012 Data

  19. North Dakota Crude Gathering Williams Mountrail McKenzie Grey = Truck Color = Pipe Dunn 20

  20. North Dakota Crude Gathering Williams Mountrail Pie Charts Truck = Red Pipeline = Blue McKenzie Dunn 21

  21. Strengthening Landowner Relations

  22. Reducing Truck Traffic Four Bears Pipeline 77 miles – 12” 105,000 BOPD Capacity Impact: 50,000-75,000 Truck Miles Per Day

  23. Pipeline Challenge #3 24

  24. Crude Pricing – May 18, 2012 Clearbrook$89.48 Brent $106.94 Cushing $91.33 Brent $106.94 26

  25. PADD II Decrease In Light Demand BP Whiting, IN -260 MBOPD 2013 Marathon Detroit, MI -65 MBOPD 2013 ConocoPhillips Wood River, IL -130 MBOPD 2011 27 Source: Enbridge

  26. -$2.00 May 18, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCSUHC1:IND/chart/

  27. Challenge #4???

  28. 31 31

  29. ND Natural Gas Pipelines Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Northern Border Pipeline 1.51 BCFD 2.37 BCFD

  30. ND Gas Facility/System Intake

  31. ND Gas Facility/System Intake Four New/Expanded Plants in Next 12-18 months ONEOK Stateline I & II Hess Tioga Plains Ross

  32. ND NGL Production

  33. First Time Gas Sales Per Month

  34. ND Gas Gathering Statistics

  35. Homes Heated By ND Natural Gas Based on Average US Home Natural Gas Consumption

  36. ND Oil & Gas Development Efficiency March 2012 Data

  37. ND Oil & Gas Development Efficiency March 2012 Production Data, Oil Price of $84.73/bbl, Natural Gas/NGL Wellhead Price of $8.00/MCF

  38. Natural Gas Study

  39. Montana Bakken Production Source: EPRINC – Left Axis Oil, BOPD – Right Axis Gas, MCFD

  40. Elm Coulee Montana

  41. Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD Today Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.

  42. Gas Transmission Pipelines 1.51 BCFD 2.37 BCFD 45

  43. Governor’s Pipeline Summit June 14, 2012 9:00am-11:30am Bismarck State College’s National Energy Center of Excellence More details to come…

  44. Contact Information North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840 Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov www.ndpipelines.wordpress.com

  45. Supporting Material

  46. Brent-WTI-ND Crude Pricing

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