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TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean Sea and Global climate

TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean Sea and Global climate. TROPA-UCM are At UCM: PhD students: Jorge Lopez Parages, Marta Martin del Rey, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado (at AEMET), Nube Gonzalez Reviriego (also in USAL)

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TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean Sea and Global climate

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  1. TROPA-UCM on HyMeX: Mediterranean Sea and Global climate TROPA-UCM are At UCM: PhD students: Jorge Lopez Parages, Marta Martin del Rey, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado (at AEMET), Nube Gonzalez Reviriego (also in USAL) Post-Doc: Javier Garcia Serrano (now at IC3), Teresa Losada Doval, Irene Polo Sánchez Permanent: Belen Rodriguez de Fonseca, Elsa Mohino Harris

  2. TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es

  3. TROPA “TROPical Atlantic” group http:/tropa.fis.ucm.es

  4. Variabilidad Climática Global • TROPA • Tropical-Climate Variability • Air-Sea interactions • Atmospheric Teleconnections • Climate Change • Earth System Modelling Rodriguez-Fonseca et al.2009 1970’s Climate Shift Cambio del estado base ? (low-frecuency variability) Rodriguez-Fonseca B., I. Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, T. Losada, E. Mohino, C. R. Mechoso and F. Kucharski (2009): Are the Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades?. Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 36, L20705, DOI: 10.1029/2009 GL040048, 2009.

  5. Temas activos de investigación MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo

  6. MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall Polo et al. 2008 Change in the Global signal of the Mediterranean Pattern PCP Sudán-Sahel SST eMed Polo et al. 2008 Rodriguez-Fonseca et al., 2010 Polo I, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, García-Serrano J (2008) Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979-2002). Part I: time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall. J Clim 21:6457-6475. Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; S. Janicot, T. Losada, E. Mohino, M. Joly, A. Voldoire, B. Fontaine, J. Bader, C. Caminade, I. Polo, J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Chauvin, P. Ruti, S. Gervois, P. Rocou, 2010. Interanual to decadal SST forced responses of the West African Monsoon. Atmos. Sci. Lett. Accepted.

  7. psi850 wind950 local forcing !! large-scale predictor ?? MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the WAM-Sahelian raninfall Fontaine et al. 2009. • Negative SLP anomalies over the eastern basin • (Raicich et al. 2003) • Weakening of the climatological NE winds • (Peyrillé et al. 2007) More northward migration of the WAM-rainbelt Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sijikumar S, Ruti ,P, Janicot S (2009) Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979-2006) and climate simulations. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0599-3.

  8. MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes Observaciones geopotential z-lon profile <30N-40N> Z200 U200-climatology baroclinic structure over the MED basin circumglobal propagation-pattern quasi-barotropic structure anywhere in the lat band waveguiding effect of the NAA jet SST thermal forcing García-Serrano et al. (submitted) García-Serrano et al. (submitted) MED N.Pacf N.Amer N.Atl China N.Pacf García-Serrano J, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Losada T (submitted): Large- Scale Atmospheric Response to Eastern Mediterranean Summer SST Anomalies. Clim Dyn.

  9. MEDITERRANEAN-forcing of the Mid-Latitudes • Simulaciones WARM-CTL (UCLA-AGCM) psi200 U200-climatology waveguided anomalous circulation local-baroclinic structure remote-barotropic pattern anticyclonic anomalies over China-North Pacific Europe García-Serrano et al. (submitted) Observaciones yexperimentos de sensibilidad evidencian, a partir de la década de los 70, una respuesta atmosférica de granescala asociada a anomalías de SST en el Mediterráneo oriental .

  10. 1979-1999 1950-1970 Variabilidad Multidecadal en la region Mediterránea Impacto de la variabilidad natural multidecadal en los modos interanuales de la precipitación sobre el área Euro-Mediterránea 1902-2003 winter interannual patterns (EOF1 ) : Multidecadal natural vs antropogenic modulation AMO PDO GW fvar (%) a) 16% b) 16% c) 16% d) 16% Lopez-Parages et al., 2010 López-Parages J, Rodríguez- Fonseca B, (EGU 2010): The Climate Shift and the Climate Variability in the Euro-Mediterranean Region.

  11. Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo Observaciones 1958-1978 CRU 1979-2001 CRU 1979-2001 CMAP Precipitation EC SST EC JAS SST JAS precipitation Losada et al. (submitted) EMCA analysis: Atlantic MAM-OND SST (30S-10N, 60W-35E) JAS Mediterranean precipitation (30N-50N, 15W-40E). Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.

  12. Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo 1979-2001 Observed response to the Tropical AtlanticVariability JAS SST The SST pattern shows significant anomalies over the whole tropical basins. It also shows a significant SST anomalous lobes over the North Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Losada et al. (submitted) JASz200 Anomalous low circulation responsible for the increase of precipitation over central Europe. precipitation Regression of the observed fields onto the observed EMCA SST-EC Anomalous high circulations responsible for the decrease of precipitation over eastern and western Europe.

  13. Forzamientos Externos sobre el Mediterráneo Losada et al. (submitted) Losada T, Polo I., Rodríguez- Fonseca B, Kucharski F. (submitted): On the nature of the relationship between the Atlantic Niño and the summer Mediterranean climate. What has changed in recent decades?. Geophy. Res. Lett.

  14. Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar ? UCM - TROPA

  15. FIN

  16. Large-scale atmospheric response to Eastern Mediterranean summer SST anomalies CONCLUSIONS - Observations and modelling evidences support a large-scale atmospheric response associated with summer eastern-Mediterranean SST anomalies - Results support the hypothesis of a hemispheric pattern initiated in the Mediterranean basin, pointing out both a local baroclinic response and a barotropic circumglobal circulation - Local baroclinic response plays an important role in the latitudinal migration of the WAM system - Global teleconnection extends to the entire Northern Hemisphere, reflecting the waveguide effect of the westerly jet, and having a surface impact on the North Pacific and Europe References: Fontaine B, García-Serrano J, Roucou P, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Losada T, Chauvin F, Gervois S, Sivarajan S, Ruti P, Janicot S (2009) Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979-2006) and climate simulations. Clim. Dyn. García-Serrano J, Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Polo I (2009) Large-scale atmospheric response to Mediterranean summer SST anomalies. Submitted to Clim. Dyn.

  17. Importancia del Mediterráneo en Variabilidad Climática Global • TROPA tiene ganas de colaborar • Cambio de tendencia actual en la sst del mediterráneo similar • al de los 70’s? relación con cambios en la variabilidad • multidecadal natural

  18. specific questions (HyMeX UCM-CRC-Ibimet) The work consists in 5 tasks of research which are inter-related at intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales and are defined as follows: 1 Global climate remote influence on Mediterranean climate variability. (i) Study of the atmospheric remote influences on the MD from Pacific Ocean, such as the well-known oscillations: MJO, ENSO, PDO. (ii) Study of the interactions between MD and both the Atlantic and the Monsoon climate systems with a focus on the dynamical and thermodynamic processes. 2 The Mediterranean influence on the global climate variability. Investigation of the Mediterranean SST variability as a source of heat available to the atmosphere with a possible global response and impacts. This part will partly focus on the impacts of the Mediterranean SST on (i) the West African Monsoon and (ii) the extratropical circulation. 3 Large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional/local atmospheric circulation in the western and central MD. Study of the interactions between Atlantic/Mediterranean weather regimes and (i) intense cylogenesis linked with heavy rainfall, strong winds and storms in the MD and (ii) severe dry-spell, with a focus on the European and Northern African Mediterranean coast. 4 Recent trends in the MD and interactions with global change. Study of recent global trends and Mediterranean changes. This point will focus (i) on recent trends in mean climate conditions, (ii) on trends of the frequency of intense hydro-meteorological events in the MD (intense cylogenesis, heavy rainfall, storms, and dry-spells) and (iii) trends in the frequency of weather regimes leading to these specific events. Investigation of the causes of the change distinguishing global warming and natural low-frequency variability. 5 Analysis of the atmospheric circulation variability in future climate. Investigation of global climate variability from IPCC simulations and interactions with atmospheric circulation in the MD. Impacts on cyclogenesis and dry-spell in the western and central MD.

  19. FURTHER WORK • Observed signal using 1979-2001 period; is this a consequence of the recent climate trends? (natural vs anthropogenic) • Investigate the asymmetry between positive/negative thermal forcing in the Mediterranean eastern basin over European Region: AMMA Simulations • Investigate NAO/Mediterranean SST relationship from the WR and AMMA simulations.

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