ANALYSIS OF RAISIN TURKEY & WORLD

1. ANALYSIS OF RAISIN TURKEY & WORLD AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

2. 1. INTRODUCTION • 2. GENERAL MARKET INFORMATION • Production and consumption • External Trade and General Outlook • 3. POLICIES • 4. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • 5. CONCLUSION AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

3. 1.INTRODUCTION • Although raisin orchard area is remained about the same in 2005 compared to with 2004, raisin production has decreased. • Domestic raisin consumption is projected at about 30,000 tones in 2005, similar to 2004. • TARIS, a State Economic Enterprises (SEE) played a more significant role in the past in the raisin market. • Parallel to the commitment made to the IMF, the goverment of Turkey eliminated most input subsidy programs and adopted a direct income support system for farmers AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

4. 2.GENERAL MARKET INFORMATION PRODUCTION • Turkish 2004 crop raisin production estimates range widely, from 250,000 tones to 300,000 tons. • TARIS has recommended in recent years that producers limit seedless grape orchard area because it believed the export market was saturated. • In 2004, total seedless grape production is estimated at about 1.4 millions ton. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

5. Figure 1: Yearly grape and raisin production,1995-2002,TURKEY Source : Summarize of agricultural statistics, DİE AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

6. CONSUMPTION • Domestic raisin consumption fluctuates depending upon supply and quality of the raisin crop. • TARIS’s role in procuring and marketing raisins has been decreasing in conjunction with IMF backed reforms to reduce the Turkish government’s role in agriculture. • In general, TARIS has been the buyer of last resort, purchasing a large percentage of lower quality raisins. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

7. EXTERNAL TRADE OF TURKEY • 2005 raisin exports were projected at 230,000 tons, which was about five percent higher than the estimate in 2004. • The EU is the primary market for Turkish raisin exports. • TARIS has exported about 30,000 tons in the year 2004, which was 26,000 tons in 2003. • Average export prices were lower (about USD 1,050 per ton) for the period September 1, 2004 and March 16, 2005 compared to the same period a year ago (about USD 1,150 per ton). AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

8. Figure 2 :Yearly Raisin Export ,TURKEY Source : External Trade Statistics, EBİM AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

9. Figure 3 :Raisin export from TURKEY to major country Source : External Trade Statistics, EBİM AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

10. Turkey’s import of seedless raisin (sultana) are insignificant amount. Sultana import was nearly 3.148 tons. Sultana sometimes comes from Iran’s border into Turkey. Figure 4 :Turkey's yearly raisin import Source : www.fao.org , statistics AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

11. By 2002 the quantity that is subject to export in world is 624,5 thousand tones and the valuation of this quantity is 575,6 million US dollars. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

12. The main importer countries are EU countries and Canada , Japan,England, Germany and Holland makes the 32 % of the world raisin ımport which are the most important importer countries. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

13. GENERAL OUTLOOK • The seedless raisin production is centred in Aegean Region. • Turkey is one of the biggest producer of raisin on the world, in parallel to being leader producer of grapes. • Export of raisin was around 226 thousand of tons ,Turkey has gained 239 million dolars from that export in 2005. • In the year 2006, the cost of raisin is approximately 1,23YTL/Kg.The price level of raisin is 1,5YTL/Kg at the begining of the year but it fell to 1,1 – 1YTL/Kg at the end. TARİŞ is paying 1YTL in advance to producers.But this price level is letting the market to fall instead of stabilazing AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

14. POLICIES • As aproduction policy; the government of Turkey eliminated most of the input subsidy programs and adopted a direct income support program for farmers. • For trade; there has never been any export subsidy for raisins. In order to protect local producers, government announced a 54.9 percent import duty. • TARIS, which was considered a quasi government entity in the past, has become more independent in recent years, especially in the administration and management of its financial requirements AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

15. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • Unless the marketing problem is smoothed in grape market, the more grapes will be dried and this will cause the raisin’s price level to fall more. • There is a need to an institution to purchase the product at the value price and recover the stock cost. • The most negative impact on the market price of raisin is caused by the illegal enterance from Iran. For blocking the illegal enterance there must be an increase in controls at border. • The producers must be protected in the specialization process.TARİŞ must be supported by the government to increase its power in the market. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

16. CONCLUSION • Availability of government security on raisin puchasing causes to disturb the demand & supply equilibrium,increasingly. • Herein, raisin will probably get bigger shares from world organic market in forthcoming years. • To reach the EU standards, which is the biggest market of Turkey, the packaging must be developed. • The necessary importance must be given to production and marketing process of raisin to get bigger share from the world export. AGRCULTURAL ECONOMICS,2007

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