A century of earthquake resistant awareness - deaths per decade 1900-2010

1. Mallet Milne 1890: Earthquake Resistance initiated San Francisco & Tokyo A century of earthquake resistant awareness - deaths per decade 1900-2010

2. A century of earthquake resistant awareness 1900 Chile 2010 New Zealand, 2010 Dalbandin, Jan 2011

3. dollars vs. deaths the rich pay and the poor die Haiti 2010 adjusted 24k actual 3k 100 deaths per billion dollars Vranes & Pielke’09

4. Paleoseismology micro-zonation subsurface structure vulnera-bility historical earthquakes Societal response to future quakes statistics GEM etc Seismology Seismic Hazards Seismic Risk GPS & InSAR Earthquake Engineering plate motions skyscapers city halls apartment blocks Bridges Pipelines Dams Schools hospitals fire-stations vulnerability Science and technology and statistics

5. Paleoseismology micro-zonation subsurface structure vulnera-bility historical earthquakes Societal response to future quakes statistics GEM etc Seismology Seismic Hazards Seismic Risk GPS & InSAR Earthquake Engineering plate motions skyscapers city halls apartment blocks Bridges Pipelines Dams Schools hospitals fire-stations vulnerability Science and technology and statistics future earthquakes will target society's weaknesses ie deaths from earthquakes (≈50,000/year) will continue to rise 1 billion 1-3 family dwellings ignorance poverty corruption

6. 30 minutes: a measure of present-day failure "Within 30 minutes we can estimate the probable number of people killed and injured in an earthquake without news from the epicentral region, and many hours before relief crews are mobilized"

7. 30 minute death estimate from WAPMERR or USGS World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction calculate number of deaths injuries by settlement name earthquake location 2 minutes 20 minutes magnitude/depth attenuation pager alert to disaster agencies, local governments etc prelim: 30 minutes update: 2, 5, 10 hours building fragility population density

8. Example earthquake Mw=7.6 Kashmir 2005 official death toll after 2 months 82,000 30 minute death toll high attenuation 7,000-14,000 dead 30 minute death toll low attenuation 27,000-52,000 dead black =total destruction: blue=minor damage. 5 classes of building fragility, 6 classes of damage intensity 24 hour death toll with focal mechanism 29,000-56,000 dead WAPPMER max credible earthquake Mw8.5 143000-291,000

9. 1800 1850 1900 1905 The problem - post 1800 medicine/sanitation 2005

10. Population increase x 10 in <1 earthquake cycle Rome 1.5 million

11. Supercities at Risk: Americas 9.0 7.8 Los Angeles 8 8.2 Lima 8 Bogata 9.2 Caracas Salvador Port au Prince 2000 1960 1980 red=fatal earthquakes, green =cities

12. Strain rates southern margin EuroAsian – GPS strain Kreemer et al 2002

14. Supercities at Risk EuroAsian collision zone

15. 1 million fatality event each century

16. 2000-2050 the age of construction more dwelling units under construction than at any time in Earth’s history $20 trillion $7.5 trillion $3.5 trillion

17. "Earthquakes dont kill people - buildings do" Ambraseys, 1967 "The $3.5* trillion construction industry is the most corrupt sector of the world economy" Transparency International 2005 (*$7.5 trillion in 2010)

18. outcome in earthquake state of society no education Ignorance no information whatever death no history no corruption no laws adobe death rubble no materials Poverty wattle and daub corrugated iron food vs steel plastic sheet and carboard weak concrete-no steel death rent a ruin 2-3 storey proto-tombs left-over lots (slopes/rivers) foundation failure circumvent 'quake building codes column failure corruption bribes etc. $ € £ death inappropriate siting circumvent common sense zero intensity collapse

19. National corruption vs Income

20. less corrupt than expected More corrupt than expected

21. 83% of all deaths from earthquakes in the past 30 years in low income corrupt nations

22. Good guys poverty, ignorance, corruption indistinguishable Bad Guys (corruption worse than expected)

23. future earthquake will target civilization's weaknesses 1 billion 1-3 family dwellings ignorance poverty corruption The fix....... for ignorance = education for poverty = education for corruption = education

24. 1770 destroyed 100% 1751 destroyed 1860 felt 1701 damaged 2010 forecast failure Area of earthquake damage Enriqullo far west? earthquake awareness Léogâne Enriquillo westward "memory" of destruction 1% France Independence Spain 1770 Haiti Building Code: Wooden re-construction mandated. No masonry walls higher than 60 cm. No adobe unless plank-lined within. No perimeter walls higher than 1 m, hedges OK. "the low buildings of Port au Prince, gave the new city an aspect entirely different from the old city" Enriquillo Rupture? 18Oct & 21Nov Léogâne thrust? Ambraseys's half-life theory for earthquake awareness: Port au Prince Villagers have a memory of the last earthquake that decays with a half-life of 1.5 generations

25. Inflating the Haiti Deathtoll – double counts & guesses from government reports and news media 12 Jan 2011 anniversary count 316000 Aug 2010 Rand Coorporation 300,000 Presidential error Best guess Haiti government, 212,000 guess number buried interred under rubble Mellisen and Red Cross "well under 100,000" buried