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Climate Change & Adaptation Planning

Environment & Sustainability IDT April 29, 2010 . Climate Change & Adaptation Planning . Climate Change Planning . Adaptation: Preparing for the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are implemented . Mitigation: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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Climate Change & Adaptation Planning

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  1. Environment & Sustainability IDT April 29, 2010 Climate Change & Adaptation Planning

  2. Climate Change Planning Adaptation: Preparing for the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are implemented Mitigation: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions Alki Beach, West Seattle, January 21, 2010, extreme high tide Source: Hugh Shipman, WA Dept of Ecology

  3. Adaptation SLI Council directed OSE to work with an interdepartmental team to develop a climate change adaptation work plan that: • Sets adaptation goals • Surveys what departments are already doing • Sets adaptation priorities • Develops tools to help the City prepare for climate change impacts

  4. Why Adapt to Climate Change? • Climate impacts are already occurring • Not adapting could put infrastructure, public health, and environment at risk • Opportunity to reduce risk and build resilience

  5. Climate Adaptation • We’ve seen these impacts before… • Summer droughts • Winter flooding • Wind storms • We already have strategies to adapt… • Natural drainage • Drought tolerant plants • Building cooling • Capital facilities design • We just need to consider the climate impacts at the point where we can do something about them!

  6. Pacific Northwest Trends • Annual average temperature has increased (1.5°F during 20th century) • Snowpack has decreased (30-60% from 1950-2000) • Cascade and Olympic glaciers in retreat • Peak spring runoff is occurring earlier • Natural variability explains can explain some, but not all of trends

  7. Projected Increases in Annual Temperature 14.4°F • Projected increase of 3.5°F by 2050 • Warmer winter temperatures and more frequent summertime heat waves +5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF) 10.8°F +3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF) 7.2°F +2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF) 3.6°F 0°F Compared with 1970-1999 average

  8. Projected Changes in Annual Precipitation • Projected to remain approximately the same over the next 50 years • Some models show large seasonal changes, especially toward wetter autumns and drier summers. Compared with 1970-1999 average

  9. Projected Sea Level Rise 50” • Sea Level Rise • Sea Level Rise: Puget Sound levels are projected to rise between 6-22 inches by 2050 & 13-50 inches by 2100. • The large range the result of wide variation in the climate models, but the Climate Impacts Group anticipates the increase will be in the middle to upper part of the range. 40” 30” 20” 13” 10” 6” 6” 3” A one-foot increase in SLR will result in a 10- year storm becoming an annual storm; a 100- year storm becoming a 10-year event 2050 2100

  10. Built Environment Built Environment: Increases in property and roadway damage from flooding, beach erosion, landslides; increase in stress on stormwater infrastructure and in cooling demand; impacts on water quality Sea Level Rise Analysis Coastal Areas: Shoreline flooding, erosion, and landslides from sea level rise, to occur episodically Now Casting Tool Green Infrastructure

  11. Public Health & Emergency Management Human Health: Increased incidents of health problems due to heat events and poor air quality. Challenges in reaching and sheltering vulnerable populations during extreme weather events. Vulnerable Populations Action Team Seattle All Hazard Mitigation Plan Community Communication Network Cooling Centers

  12. Urban Forestry & Ecosystem Health Ecosystem Health: • Possible tree damage from drought, storm events, changing water table, and new pests. • Loss of critical plant and animal species in urban ecosystems and watersheds • Loss of shoreline habitat • Decline in shellfish industries and other fisheries. Cedar River Habitat Management Plan City Light Environmental Stewardship

  13. Water & Energy Management Electricity Supply: Decreased hydroelectricity supply due to precipitation patterns and snowpack. Increased demand for electricity for building cooling. Water Supply: Stream flows likely to be higher in autumn, winter and early spring, and lower in late spring and summer Adaptive management Climate impacts research

  14. Cross- Cutting • Adaptive Management Capacity • Equity & Social Justice Asset Management SDOT Budget Filter Adaptive Management Environmental Justice Network in Action Equity Filter VPAT

  15. Action Areas • GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE: Incorporate consideration benefits to enhance focus on green infrastructure • LAND USE: Review building and land use code to increase adaptive capacity • CITY FACILITIES: Assess risk and employ adaptation strategies to lead by example • COASTAL AREAS: Convene a sea level rise working group

  16. Decision-Making Tools • Climate decision framework for City capital investments & programs • Integrate adaptation into new climate action plan • RSJ lens for climate adaptation analysis

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