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Inverse modeling of global CH 4 emissions MACC re-analysis 2003-2010

Inverse modeling of global CH 4 emissions MACC re-analysis 2003-2010. P. Bergamaschi S. Houweling A. Segers M. Krol SCIAMACHY: R. Scheepmaker, C. Frankenberg IFS: R. Engelen NOAA observations: E. Dlugokencky CARIBIC observations: T. Schuck, C. Brenninkmeijer

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Inverse modeling of global CH 4 emissions MACC re-analysis 2003-2010

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  1. Inverse modeling of global CH4 emissions MACC re-analysis 2003-2010 P. Bergamaschi S. Houweling A. Segers M. Krol SCIAMACHY: R. Scheepmaker, C. Frankenberg IFS: R. Engelen NOAA observations: E. Dlugokencky CARIBIC observations: T. Schuck, C. Brenninkmeijer HIPPO observations: S.Wofsy GOSAT observations: S. Guerlet, A. Butz TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  2. MACC reanalysis - sensitivity runs TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  3. satellite bias correction - polynomial TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  4. satellite bias correction - smooth Lcorr = 20o lat Tcorr = 3 months TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  5. difference between IMAPv55 and IMAPv50 2004 [Frankenberg et al, JGR, 2011] TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  6. CH4 increase (NOAA) [E. Dlugokencky, 2011] TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  7. CH4 / anomalies average over 5 lowest model layers (~0-1km) TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  8. CH4 anomalies: NOAA obs vs. reanalysis TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  9. CH4 anomalies: NOAA only TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  10. CH4 anomalies: NOAA + IMAPv55 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  11. CH4 emissions / anomalies - NOAA only TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  12. CH4 emissions / anomalies - IMAPv55 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  13. CH4 emissions / anomalies - IMAPv55 / Spiv.OH TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  14. CH4 emissions / anomalies - IMAPv55 / LPJ TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  15. CH4 emissions / anomalies - IMAPv55 / smooth bias TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  16. regional CH4 emission anomalies TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  17. regional CH4 emission anomalies - tropics TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  18. regional CH4 emission anomalies - arctic TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  19. surface sites TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  20. surface sites TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  21. CARIBIC TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  22. HIPPO HIPPO-1 (Jan 2009) TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  23. TM5 (IMAPv55) vs HIPPO HIPPO-1 (Jan 2009) TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  24. TM5 (NOAA only) vs HIPPO HIPPO-1 (Jan 2009) TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  25. IAV / trends CH4 emissions vs. OH Montzka, et al., Science, 2011 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  26. OH CH4 sink anomlay resulting from MACC OH Montzka, et al., Science, 2011 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  27. CH4 emissions / anomalies - IMAPv55 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  28. CH4 emissions / anomalies - GFEDv3.1 TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  29. CH4 emissions / anomalies - LPJ WHyMe TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  30. Conclusions - MACC reanalysis MACC reanalysis 2003-2010 ● global total emissions 2007-2010 ~20Tg CH4/yr higher than 2003-2005 -> EXNH: 5-10 Tg CH4/yr -> tropics: 10-15 Tg CH4/yr -> EXSH: < 1 Tg CH4/yr arctic: no trend, only small IAV (~2 Tg CH4/yr) ● SCIA inversions provide somewhat different IAV patterns than NOAA only -> challenge to disentangle potential SCIAMACHY artefacts -> so far comparison with validation data (surface, HIPPO, CARIBIC, NOAA aircraft, FTS) not verv conclusive ● challenge to disentangle IAV of CH4 emission vs. OH IAV / trends 2003-2010 probably superposition of: IAV biomass burning and wetlands IAV OH trends anthropogenic emission TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  31. GOSAT CH4 inversion - bias corr: polynomial TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  32. GOSAT CH4 inversion - bias corr: smooth Lcorr = 20o lat Tcorr = 3 months TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  33. SCIA - smooth bias corr: Lcorr = 20o Lcorr = 20o lat Tcorr = 3 months TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  34. Conclusions - GOSAT First test inversions of GOSAT-SRON FP XCH4 : ●bias correction for GOSAT much smaller than for SCIAMACHY IMAPv55 origin of small GOSAT bias correction unclear (GOSAT or TM5 ?) ● GOSAT retrieval have significantly higher precision ● different inversion increments compared to SCIAMACHY inversions TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  35. Supplementary Material TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  36. IAV / trends CH4 emissions vs. OH Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

  37. CH4 emissions / anomalies - NOAA only TM meeting Wageningen 28-29 November 2011

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