Andrey B.Shmakin

1. Studies of IGBP-related subjects in Northern Eurasia at the Laboratory of Climatology, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey B.Shmakin

2. Main subjects studied at the Laboratory • Regional structure of climate change in the last millennium and its relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation – relevant to PAGES • Climate extremes and their variability in the 20th century – relevant to PAGES • Role of the land surface in climatic system from local to global scale – relevant to ILEAPS and GAIM

3. Change of Net Primary Production of vegetation (% of contemporary) on the East European Plain under doubling of CO2 scenario (Denissenko, Turkov, 2004)

8. Change of number of days with minimum air temperature below 10% probability limit in December – February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

9. Anomalies of maximum pentad sum of precipitation in December – February of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.Statistically insignificant changes (at 10% level) are shown in white.

10. Change of number of days with atmospheric drought in July of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80

11. Change of number of days with daily precipitation more than 30 mm in June – August of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

12. Change of number of days with air temperature decrease by more than 7оС since the previous day in June of 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80.

13. Change of frost-free season length (days) averaged for 1989-2001 as compared to 1951-80. Statistically insignificant changes (at 5% level) are shown in white.

14. Conclusions Change of characteristics of climate extremes generally demonstrate milder conditions, especially in winter. At the same time, in the east, north and center of the East European plain, the frost-free season has shortened significantly. In separate regions of the ex-USSR, some weather extremes (intensive rains, atmospheric droughts, sharp temperature decreases) became more frequent.

15. Evaluation of snow cover and permafrost features in Northern Eurasia for some climate change scenariosA.B.Shmakin

16. Purpose of the study: • To evaluate the regime of snow cover formation and melting, as well as permafrost thawing, in contemporary conditions and under certain climate change scenarios for the 21st century.

17. Model: • SPONSOR parameterization scheme with full description of the local energy/water exchange processes. The scheme has been involved in numerous international projects for intercomparison of such models since 1994. The model was used together with the original radiation scheme (Shmakin, 1998).

19. Location of the test sites in Eurasia

20. Air temperature in Tiksi for January of 1992 (observed) and 2062 (projected from GCM scenarios)

21. Average of annual maximum SWEs (mm) at the test sites

22. Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, marsh

23. Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at .7 m depth, bush

24. Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, marsh

25. Average of annual maximum soil temperatures at 2 m depth, bush

26. Conclusions • At the wetter sites, no qualitative changes in the permafrost regime take place in the coming 70 years. • At the dryer sites under the ECHAM scenario, the permafrost will start to thaw in 2060s at 0.7 m in Tiksi and at 2 m in Turuhansk. • The rate of soil temperature increase in the coming 70 years does not exceed 1.5°C at wetter sites, and 2.5°C at dryer sites. This is due to considerable soil heat capacity and low soil heat conductivity in the permafrost areas. • The snow water equivalent at the sites will decrease to some extent under the climate change scenarios.