Voting and Elections

1. 0 Voting and Elections October 29, 2007

2. 0 Republican Candidates (2008) • Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City • Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas • Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative • Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council • John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona • Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988Libertarian Presidential nominee • Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts • Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado • Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee

3. Democratic Candidates (2008) • Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware • Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady • Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut • John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate • Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska • Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio • Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois • Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former Secretary of Energy

4. 0 Who decides who the party nominee will be? • In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention • Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries • These contests determine how many delegates a candidate receives. • The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

5. 0 Caucus • A meeting of candidate supporters • Democratic caucuses allow any registered Democratic to participate • Republican caucuses are less open; some limit participation to party officials and workers • Systems used include winner-take-all and PR

6. 0 Primaries • Elections to decide nominees • Closed primaries • Only party members can vote • Open primaries • Any registered voter can select a party’s primary and vote in it

7. 0 Shorter Primaries

8. Schedule for the 2008 Presidential Primaries

9. 0 Iowa and NH can help the Underdog • Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. • Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) • Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) • Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) • Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) • McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

10. 0 Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

11. 0 Voters in New Hampshire

12. 0 Impact of New Hampshire Primary

13. 0 Front loading • 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March • Benefits the front runner • Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process • Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

14. 0 Why do early primaries play such a large role? • Importance of momentum • Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more contributions • This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch up.

15. 0 Consequences • Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004) • In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination. • Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

16. 0 Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs • Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. • News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

17. 0 Example of the Consequences of Front-loading in 2000 1,034 delegates needed to win