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CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMs Brazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI)

The External Environment for Developing Countries May 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMs Brazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI). Source : JPMorgan and World Bank data.

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CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMs Brazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI)

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesMay 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. CDS spreads – EU-5 vs. selected EMsBrazil, Russia, China, Turkey, Indonesia (BRCTI) Source: JPMorgan and World Bank data.

  3. Claims of EU Periphery banks on EMs as percent of lender’s GDP Source: IFC calculations based on BIS data.

  4. OECD developments

  5. Greek contagion fears were calmed by a momentous policy package Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.

  6. Euro falls sharply vis-à-vis greenback USD per euro [left]; CACI and DAX indexes, February-15, 2010=100 CACI [R] DAX [R] USD per euro [L] Source: Thomson-Datastream

  7. Euro Zone growth dissapoints in first quarterquarterly growth of real GDP, percentage change , q/q saar Source: Eurostat

  8. German export orders revive in Marchfactory orders received from abroad and industrial production, ch% saar Source: Eurostat

  9. U.S. GDP growth eases to 3.2% in Q1-2010 on stocks, investment and exports quarterly growth of real GDP (saar), and contributions to growth in percentage points Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.

  10. U.S. employment gains now firmly in positive territory… supporting demand retail sales x autos ch% saar [left]; change in employment ‘000 (3mma) [right] Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor.

  11. Forward-looking indicators also favorable new orders (ch% saar), DJIA (ch%, y/y) [L]; LEI [R] Source: Thomsom/Datastream.

  12. Japan orders, exports, and IP show moderatesign of slack– waiting return of demandprivate machinery orders, export volumes and production, ch% (3m/3m, saar) Source: Japan Cabinet Office, METI.

  13. Japanese consumer now adding meaningfully to growth retail sales volume, ch% year-on-year [L]; and Tokyo Consumer Confidence Index [R] Source: Japan Cabinet Office, METI.

  14. Country Focus:Brazil

  15. Domestic demand continues to drive industrial production inBrazil Source: Thompson/Datastream.

  16. Inflationary pressures are building Inflation, ch% yr-on-yr [L], SELIC rate, % [R] Source: Thompson/Datastream.

  17. Limited spillovers from European Crisis to Brzilian financial markets EMBI Spreads, basis points [L], BOVESPA [R] Source: Thompson/Datastream.

  18. Industrial production

  19. The shift to the right in the distribution of monthly growth in IP points to recovery Source: Development Prospects Group.

  20. Industrial production exceeds pre-crisis peaks in selected countries pre – crisis peak = 100 Source: Development Prospects Group.

  21. Strong IP carryover will ensure robust performance in the second quarter percent, 3m/3m saar Source: Development Prospects Group.

  22. International trade

  23. Share of Southern Euro Zone in total exportspercent share of total exports in 2008 Source: World Bank, UN-COMTRADE.

  24. Share of world trade for developing countriesshare of world imports in percent Source: World Bank, UN-COMTRADE.

  25. G20 use of selected temporary trade barriers By import source, 1997-2009, unique product-exporter combinations Source: Bown (2010), Global Anti-dumping Database.

  26. Oil prices

  27. OECD oil stocks (days of forward consumption) Source: IEA, Bloomberg and DECPG.

  28. Crude oil prices drop and differentials skew $/bbl WTI Dubai Brent Source: Datastream and DECPG.

  29. WTI Futures Prices – NYMEXmonthly contract prices to Dec 2015* for select dates in 2010 $/bbl Apr 30 Mar 31 Jan 29 May 18 * Futures prices extend semi-annually to Dec 2018 Source: NYMEX.

  30. Non-oil commodity prices

  31. Ag- gains led by raw materials and beverages (2000=100) Source: DECPG.

  32. Metals prices fall on Eurozone woes $/ton ‘000 tons LME stocks Nickel price Source: Datastreamand DECPG.

  33. Gold prices(per troy ounce) currency/toz Gold in dollars Gold in euros Source: Datastreamand DECPG.

  34. International Finance

  35. Capital flows steady in April Source: DECPG.

  36. Relative to Lehman collapse, the magnitude of recent corrections has been modest Source: JP Morgan and Bloomberg.

  37. Signs of monetary tightening in some emerging market countries Sources: JP Morgan and DECPG staff calculations

  38. Currencies and inflation

  39. Euro takes large loss vis-à-vis dollar on “market failure” of EU/IMF Greek package USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  40. Euro- cross exchange rates showobverse movements for C. European units LCU per euro, index January 2008=100 Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  41. Volatility in USD LIBOR not echoed in interbank rates for other key currencies LIBOR-6month rates.. US dollar, euro, sterling and yen Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  42. The External Environment for Developing CountriesMay 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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