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Convective basics and ESTOFEX

http://www.estofex.org/. Convective basics and ESTOFEX. Speaker: Helge Tuschy. http://www.dwd.de/. 1. Short vita. studied Meteorology / Geophysics at the Leopold-Franzens University of Innsbruck, Austria 2002, 2007 internship National Weather Service Amarillo, Texas

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Convective basics and ESTOFEX

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  1. http://www.estofex.org/ Convective basics and ESTOFEX Speaker: Helge Tuschy http://www.dwd.de/ 1

  2. Short vita • studied Meteorology / Geophysics at the Leopold-Franzens • University of Innsbruck, Austria • 2002, 2007 internship National Weather Service Amarillo, Texas • 2004, internship Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ) • talks: ECSS, ICAM, media … • forecaster at ESTOFEX / member of ESSL • Since 2010 working at the DWD (RZ Leipzig, E-Germany) • favorite sport: baseball and soccer • favorite food: Italian style 2

  3. The outline • Basics about organized convection • Overview about ESTOFEX • Case study (15th August 2008) • Future of ESTOFEX 3

  4. Convective forecast parametersand signatures @EUMETSAT 9-11 km SBCAPE MLCAPE MUCAPE Low-level CAPE 0-6 km 0-3 km 0-3 km Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) 0-1 km Speed shear Storm relative helicity - mixing ratio (0-1 km) - 0-1 km mean wind streamlines - real time T/Td data 4

  5. Convective available potential energy Surface based (SB) CAPE Mean / Mixed layer (ML) CAPE • Surface dewpoints / temperatures • realistic layer depth for thunderstorm inflow ? • Magnitude highly! variable in • space and time • Pro: e.g. winter with thin low-level • moisture • Contra: - in summer often way too • high • - decays too fast • Mean/Mixed temperatures / dewpoints • within lowest 50 – 100 hPa • realistic layer depth for low topped • supercells ? • Pro: often most reliable parameter • Contra: in winter often underestimates • true magntiude 5

  6. Speed shear a) b1) b2) d) c) Cyclonic rotation Anticyclonic rotation @ Eye on the Twister @ LakeErieWX

  7. Directional shear (helicity) a) b) @ A REVIEW FOR FORECASTERS ON THE APPLICATION OF HODOGRAPHS TO FORECASTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS by Charles A. Doswell III c) @ Dynamics of tornadic thunderstorms by Joseph B. Klemp 7

  8. Storm relative helicity 180 ° Storm relative winds Horiz. Vort. vector Storm relative winds (arrow) and storm relative helicity (colored area); here: 1-3 km SRH Thunderstorm motion e.g. 320° 12 kn 270 ° 90 ° 15 kt 30 kt Sfc. To 1 km (tornadogenesis) Sfc. To 3 km (mesocyclones) 0 °

  9. Be careful of composed parameters Supercell composite parameter (SCP) Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) Energy Helicity Index (EHI) Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP) e.g. highly fluctuating • Each parameter has its positive and negative side • Composed parameters mix those aspects; negative ones • can multiply 9

  10. European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX) www.estofex.org

  11. Forecasters of ESTOFEX Dr. Pieter Groenemeijer Dr. Johannes Dahl Dr. Oscar van der Velde Christoph Gatzen Helge Tuschy Oliver Schlenczek Tomas Pucik Marko Korosec

  12. 1st outlook of ESTOFEX VALID 06Z THU 10/10 - 00Z FRI 11/10 2002ISSUED: TUE 08/10 23:10ZFORECASTER: HAVEN

  13. European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX) What is ESTOFEX? An initiative of a team of European meteorologists and studentsin meteorology and serves as a platform for exchange of knowledge about severe convective storms in Europe and elsewhere. ! ! ESTOFEX offers a GUIDANCE where organized convection is forecast. This guidance can be used by local forecast offices for daily warning preparation.

  14. Which risk of (extremely) severe convective weather phenomena does ESTOFEX forecast ? • Severe convective weather phenomena: • tornado (waterspouts) • hail with a diameter of at least 2.0 cm • wind gusts with a speed of at least 25 m/s (92 km/h or about 49 knots) • excessive rainfall of at least 60 mm • Extremely severe convective weather phenomena: • tornado; (E)F 2 or stronger • hail with a diameter of at least 5.0 cm • wind gusts with a speed of at least 33 m/s (119 km/h or about 65 knots)

  15. The meaning of the level areas • 41 km radius of a chosen point • verification by EUCLID/ESWD R = 25 miles = 41 km A ~ 5085 km2 Severe wind gust report Tornado report Heavy rain report Large hail report Evaluation of ESTOFEX forecasts: Severe thunderstorm forecasts H.E. Brooks et al.

  16. Probabilities

  17. The meaning of the level areas • E.g. probability of 15 % means a 15 % chance for that event to happen within a radius of 41 km around each point. May seem low, but compared to climatology, it is significant • 2) Level 0 expected probability of severe convection appears insignificant • 3) Level 1 most common threat level; low threat of severe weather • 4) Level 2 large confidence of severe storm occurrence and slight risk for • extreme severe • 5) Level 3 major severe thunderstorm outbreak (e.g. 15th August 2008 )

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  19. How do we prepare our outlooks?

  20. Wind profiler Surface data European radar data (Meteox and local data) Soundings: Real time/model AVHRR SST (spout forecast) ESTOFEX outlook Lightning data (EUCLID) Ensemble prediction system (EPS) data from global models EUMETSAT Satellite data [HVIS !] • Model data: • global models • local / regional models • self-produced outputs for convective forecasts Climatology (e.g. thunderstorm days)

  21. Structure of a Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 or 2 (SWODY 1 or SWODY 2) • Synopsis • Short overview • upper level streamline pattern (e.g. trough, ridge, jets) • low levels (e.g. sig. boundaries, characteristics of the planetary boundary layer quality regarding moisture, temperature) • possible: short outline of model credibility (e.g. ensembles, EFIs etc.) • if necessary: short side notes for significant weather events like a depression with a potential (sub) tropical character • Discussion • Header • Severe Weather Outlook Day 2 (SWODY 2): • General discussion • Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 (SWODY 1): • Discussions of each area of interest within different paragraphs. The following points are discussed: • kinematic environment (shear) • instability • forcing • storm mode • time frame/duration

  22. Tornado outbreak 15th August 2008 (Poland)

  23. Pattern recognition ! 23

  24. Upper levels White: isohypse Green: isohumid Yellow: lapse rates (2-4 km AGL) Pink arrow: 300 hPa jet wind T h H 24

  25. Low levels White: isobare Green: isohumid Arrows: 850 hPa jet wind and temperature advection (colorized) t T 25

  26. Severe Weather Outlook Day 2: 13th August 2008 SYNOPSISActive weather pattern continues as a strongupper-level troughshifts to the east over central Europe. […]. At thesurface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundaryis still in place, running from the Alpes over CNTRL Poland to W-Russia, […]. DISCUSSION** A major severe-weather event is forecast for parts of central Europe and an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and significant hail can be expected. **[…]35-40 m/s 0-6km bulk shearvalues over the northern central Mediterranean. During the afternoon and evening hours, shear also increases significantly E/NE of the Alpes, with 0-6km DLS values of 25-35m/s all the way to N-Poland. […] LL shear of locally up to 20m/sand alsovery high SRH values, maximized over Poland, but also augmented all the way down to the N-Adriatic Sea. Very rich BL moistureand steep mid-level lapse rates along the front result in near1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with locally higher MUCAPE values. […] Another interesting point isabundant LL CAPErelease along the boundary, which could be a backing mechanism for tornado development, which has to be monitored in the upcoming model runs.Forecast soundings from central Italy to Poland indicate that the environmentis prime for tornadoes/a few strong ones/large hail/a few damaging events included and severe to damaging wind gusts. […] 26

  27. Severe weather outlook day 2 (SWODY 2) Issued: Wed 13 Aug 2008 21:18 Z Level areas: 13th Aug 2008 Lightning data: 15th Aug 2008 27

  28. Severe weather outlook day 1 Issued: Thu 14 Aug 2008 21:16 Z Issued: Fri 15 Aug 2008 18:09 Z 28

  29. Future of ESTOFEX • More forecasters participating in this experiment, e.g. from the • Mediterranean or E/SE Europe • Platform for forecasters to discuss realtime / past events • To bring more meteorological students on board • Creation of a detailed climatology about European convection • (also push verification of outlooks) • In the long term future: maybe an institution for European convective • forecasts ? 29

  30. Thank you very much for your attention ! Email: helge.tuschy@dwd.de 30

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