Harmful Intent: Organized Crime & International Terrorism

1. Harmful Intent: Organized Crime & International Terrorism “And hate with them is limitless as love.” Lermontov

2. Presentation Objectives • Validate the link between organized crime syndicates and international terrorism. • Assess the inherent dangers posed by international crime to the Homeland Security mission.

3. Presentation Objectives (Cont) • Evaluate the social and political junctures of organized crime and terrorist organizations through case studies. • Critique the effectiveness of joint private sector, military, and political efforts to mitigate or eliminate terror/criminal junctures as part of the international “Global War on Terror” (GWOT).

4. Organized Crime and Terrorists - Commonalities • Organization (hierarchic, cell, etc.) • Middlemen and contacts – various venues • Income-producing activities • Meet goals through terror, coercion, extortion, etc. • Utilize corrupt officials to meet needs

5. Key Links Between Intl. Crime & Terrorism • Drug trafficking & narco-terrorism • Intl. arms trade - conventional • Intl. arms trade – WMD • Human trafficking • Patent and trademark infringement • Internet piracy

6. Case Study - Afghanistan • World Bank estimates >1/2 of Afghanistan’s economy is based on the drug trade. • In 2003, the total illicit drug trade profits totaled approximately $2.33 billion U.S. dollars. • The primary concern is that the opium debacle will negate all Coalition Forces efforts to win the Global War on Terror in-country.

7. Afghanistan – Opium Capital of the World

8. Afghanistan – The Evidence

9. The Illicit Arms Trade in Conventional Weapons, Ammunition, and Explosives Commodities such as diamonds, timber, slaves, etc. are turned into cash or, in some cases, simply traded for weapons.

10. Case Studies – The Illicit Arms Market • The illicit international arms market is referred to as the “Gray Market.” • While numerous nations support a very active legal arms trade, illicit arms trafficking proliferates primarily in regions with little or no political, law enforcement, or regulatory supervision of commercial brokering operations.

11. Extent of the Problem – Specific Examples • Ukraine: • 7 million rifles, pistols, machineguns, and mortars • Moldavia: • 42k small-arms • 20,000 tons of munitions including: aircraft bombs, rockets, 39k landmines

12. Human Trafficking – Large Profit Margins for Terrorist Organizations World-wide

13. Trafficking in Persons

14. "As of May 2004, the U.S. Government estimates that 14,500 to 17,500 people are trafficked annually into the United States, and 600,000 to 800,000 are trafficked globally.”

15. Post 9/11 Terrorist Funding • Al-Qaeda and similar groups switched to so-called “blood diamonds” as one key source of funding after 9/11. • On-going civil wars in Sierra Leone and Angola provided a rich resource in diamonds

16. Al-Qaeda Diamond Connection“Al-Qaeda made a strategic decision to use diamondsto fund its operations. Rebel armies, drugdealers, organised crime outfits and rogue stateshave all recognized That rough diamonds can beput to covert or illicit uses. Easy to transport andconceal, and with an ability to maintain theirprice, they are already the favored method ofpayment or bribe in many illegal transactions.”Source: “For a Few Dollar$ MoreHow al Qaeda moved into the diamond tradeA Report”

17. Major Conflict Diamond “ Hot Spots”

18. Cyber-Terrorism

19. Case Study - Estonia • Relatively modern state apparatus • Rapidly moved to on-line banking and personal living management after collapse of the Soviet Union • Relatively modern infrastructure • Much tension between native Estonians and ethnic Russian residents

20. Estonia – Catalyst for Cyber-Terrorism • Movement of Russian WWII “Bronze Soldier” monument from capital to a less conspicuous location • Attacks initiated April 2007 and targeted all major banking institutions. • IP addresses traced to Russian government sources • NATO involvement necessary

21. A New Paradigm for Success • Realize that while combat between nation--state actors is a threat, the threat posed by the nexus of international crime, terrorism, and rampant corruption in some regions of the world is the most immediate threat to national security.

22. Strategies and Concepts for Risk Mitigation Realization that criminal and terrorist threats are global Anti-corruption campaigns with real penalties for corrupt acts Professionalization of law enforcement and security institutions world-wide Enhanced cooperation in intelligence and counter-intelligence gathering operations

23. Failure to Share Intelligence – Case-in-Point In Bosnia and Herzegovina, SFOR (the NATO “Stabilization Force) detained a suspect for alleged involvement in terrorist activity. Ultimately, SFOR turned the suspect over to local law enforcement, which had to release him, since SFOR was not able to share its intelligence or provide evidence that could be used to sustain charges.”

24. The Future of Organized Crime & Terrorism • Sources: • http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/pub45270index.html • http://www.ifilm.com/video/2748861

25. The Dilemma – “The Enemy of My Enemy is My Friend

26. The Enemy is Real http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdeThrJYWsA

27. Questions and Comments?