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CO 2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions

CO 2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions. Fedor Veselov, Alexei Makarov, Vladimir Malakhov. Moscow Carnegie Center. Round Table “Climate policy after Durban: prospects for the Russian economy”. Moscow , January 2012. Economy growth and emission scenarios.

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CO 2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions

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  1. CO2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions Fedor Veselov, Alexei Makarov, Vladimir Malakhov Moscow Carnegie Center. Round Table “Climate policy after Durban: prospects for the Russian economy” Moscow, January 2012

  2. Economy growth and emission scenarios Russian Energy Strategy to 2030 (ES-2030) assume the Baseline (Innovative) scenario with GDP growth 3.2 times by 2030 and 6.8 times by 2050. Under the lower world fuel prices’ trends and more intensive national energy efficiency and emission policy in the Environmental scenario GDP will grow up in 2.8 times by 2030 and 5.7 times by 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios will form two different GHG emission trends. 2 Energy Research Institute RAS

  3. Energy demand and emission scenarios Energy efficiency is expected to be the first important factor affecting the future GHG emission trends. Cumulative energy efficiency growth will result to the decrease of energy intensity (3.4-4.2 times by 2050) as well as the electricity intensity (2.5-2.7 times by 2050). 3 Energy Research Institute RAS

  4. Primary energy consumption, mln. toe Total primary energy consumption, Mtoe Consumption of renewables, Mtoe Changes in the TPEC structure to the non-carbon energy resources (nuclear and renewables) will be the second factor affecting GHG emission trends. The share of natural gas in TPEC will fall from 52% to 47-49% in 2030; liquid fuel – from 16.3 to 14.5-16%. The total share of non-carbon resources will grow from 13.8 to 18-21%. Renewables (excl. large hydro) will form 4.6-4.7% of total energy consumption in 2030 and 9-11% in 2050. Biomass will remain a dominant renewable resource and form ¾ of total “green” energy consumption in 2030 and still 60% in 2050. 4 Energy Research Institute RAS

  5. The role of power sector in energy balance Total primary energy consumptionby sectors of economy, Mtoe Primary energy consumptionIn the power sector, Mtoe Electricity and heat supply will increase their impact on the domestic energy demand the share of power plants and boiler houses will increase from 54% of TPEC in 2005 to57%in 2050 within the environmental scenario and remain nearly the same within the innovation scenario. The sector will remain the main area of inter-fuel (resources) competition and may ensure the reduction of gas share in the energy demand for electricity and heat from 49.8% to 42-43% in 2030 and 31-33% in 2050. Energy Research Institute RAS

  6. Electricity production structure Total electricity generation, TWh Generation of RES plants, TWh Energy mix in the power sector may be diversified by the intensive growth of non-carbon (hydro, nuclear and renewable) power plants. Their share will grow from 34% to39-45% in 2030 and 50-55% in 2050. Nuclear will rapidly increase their share from 16% to 26-29 in 2030 and 35-37 in 2050. Renewables will remain the marginal resources for generation. RES generation (mainly at biomass and wind plants) will rise 2-3 times per decade, but will not exceed 3% in 2020 and 7-8% in 2050. Energy Research Institute RAS

  7. Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO2 GHG emissions trends: an important consequence but not a main target of Energy Strategy Annual energy-related GHG emission in the Innovation scenario will nearly reach 1990 level by 2030 and by 2050 will stabilize at 170 Mt (+6%) higher. Emissions in the Environmental scenario by 2030 will remain at 540 Mt lower (-20%) 1990 level and 660 Mt lower (-25%) by 2050.After 2030 volumes of emissions will start to decrease Implementation of the Environmental; scenario will require strong GHG emission regulation policy. GHG regulation measures must be incorporated into the economy modernization toolbox 7 Energy Research Institute RAS

  8. Power sector economics will form the long-term trends of CO2 value. Impact of carbon abatement costs Carbon abatement costs, S/t CO2 Notes: Wind – grid connection/system integration costs are not included CCS – CO2 transportation and sequestration costs are not included 8 Energy Research Institute RAS

  9. Dollars “Carbon” revenues from ERU selling Revenues from electricity market Capital costs Fuel and O&M costs Years “Carbon” investments Power sector economics will form the long-term trends of CO2 value. Impact of JI-type projects • Project description: • substitution of gas-fired steam turbine unit (38% efficiency) by a CCGT unit (55% efficiency) • CCGT capital costs 1200 $/kW • Gas price at $150/1000 cm • Electricity price at $60/MWh • “Carbon” investments/revenues are estimated for total 10 year ERU amount Energy Research Institute RAS

  10. Generating capacity structure СО2emission from power plants, Mt Effect of carbon costs on the power sector emissions and macroeconomic indicators +7 $ bln per 10 Mt СО2 +0.4-0,5 US cent/kWh per 10 Mt СО2 Energy Research Institute RAS

  11. Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS) www.eriras.ru Acad. Alexei Makarov, Director makarov_ire@zmail.ru Dr. Fedor Veselov, Head of the Electric Power Sector Development & Reform Department info@eriras.ru, erifedor@rambler.ru Dr. Vladimir Malakhov, Head of the Energy Demand, Energy Efficiency and Scientific and Technological Progress Department macrolab@eriras.ru Thanks for attention

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