The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios

1. The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios H.Nifenecker Scientific consultant LPSC/CNRS Chairman of « Sauvons le Climat »

2. Global Heating Challenge

3. Models for emission (a) and concentrations of CO2 (b) (a) (b)

4. The effort to do Global Warming • 2004 Emissions : 7,3 GtC (6,4 in 2000) • World population: 6,3 Billions (6,0 in 2000) • Emission/capita: 1,15 Ton C (1,06 in 2000) Max. emission for temperature stabilization: 3GtC • Objective for 2050 • World Population(minimum) : 9 Billions • Emission/capita: 0.33 Ton

5. 2004 emissions • World average: 1,15 ton C/capita • USA: 5,4 tons C/capita • Germany : 2,8 tons C/capita • France: 1.7 tons C/capita • China: 0.75 tons C/capita

6. Origin of world CO2 emissions

7. Factors to control Energy intensities CO2 intensities

8. tCO2/tep

9. tCO2/elec Role of electricity tCO2/tep

10. Strategic role of Electricity

11. Electricity substitute to fossiles -Transportation • Mass transportation • Electric car • Hydrogen (electrolysis or reforming + CS (CO2) • Bio-Fuels -Heating • Insulation • Thermal Solar • Biomass (wood, wastes, bio-gas) • Geothermal • Heat Pump • Electric Heat

12. Learn from the past

13. Comparison of electricity mixOECD vs France

14. First step: electricity mix Assume same mix for OECD as for France

15. Comparison of CO2 emissions for observed and potential mix Gain: 0.67

16. Second step: Heatproduction with electricity

17. Total gain: 0.3Residual « transport » CO2

19. Evolution of GHG emissions Evolution of world GHG Emissions Increase dominated by CO2

20. Origin of GHG emissions

21. GHG emissions by sectorDominant rôle of energy sector

23. Building of scenariosExample of IAASA-WECscenarios

24. Population projections

25. GDP Projections

26. Energy Demand

27. Energy demand per aggregate

28. Total primary energy B2

29. Nuclear B2

30. % electricity in B2

31. Coal B2

32. % nuclear electricity

33. IIASANuclear electricity in 2050compared to 2000 • Baseline: • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.64 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1.38 • Nuclear multiplied by 2,26 • 670 ppm • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.73 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1,55 • Nuclear multiplied by 2,68 • 480 ppm • Share of electricity multiplied by 1.98 • Share of nuclear multiplied by 1,65 • Nuclear multiplied by 3,26

34. Share of CO2less in electricityB2 470 ppm

35. Share of CO2less in electricityBaseline

36. Share of CO2less in electricityOECD

37. Share of CO2less in electricityAsia

38. Share of CO2less in electricityALM

39. Share of CO2less in electricityREF

40. CO2 concentrations

41. Relation GHG concentrationtemperature

43. IPCC scenarios

44. Evolution of CO2 emissionsin IPCC scenarios

45. IPCC projections 2030 tCO2<50$/ton Renewables: 35% electricity Nuclear: 18% electricity

46. IEA’s successive Prospects fo Nuclear (World Energy Outlook) 2020 2030 Mtoe TWh % Mtoe TWh % WEO 1998 604 2317 8 WEO 2000 617 2369 9 WEO 2002 719 2758 11 703 2697 9 WEO 2004 776 2975 12 764 2929 9 WEO 2006 861 3304 10 Alt. 2006 1070 4106 14

47. Prospect for nuclear production 2000-2030 TWh (AIEA July 2006) 1400 1200 1000 2000 2010 b 800 2010 H 2020 b 600 2020 H 2030 b 2030 H 400 200 0 Am L Eur E MO+As S Ext. O Am N W Eur Afr Pacif

49. Nuclear Intensive Scenarios • Scenarios by difference: • P.A.Bauquis • D.Heuer and E.Merle • Objective oriented Scenarios • H.Nifenecker et al.

50. No miracle from renewables • Hydro: • Limitation of ressource (Europe-USA) • Environment and localization (Am.Sud, Asie, Afrique, Russie) • Large Investments • Reliable, available • Might provide 20% of world electricity. France: 70TWh/450 • Wind • « fatal » Energy • Limit: 10-15% of electricity production