Introduction of MAIRS Activities

1. Introduction of MAIRS Activities Ailikun International Program Office Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) The 2nd CORDEX South Asia Science and Training Workshop, 27-30 August 2013, Kathmandu

2. Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study The vision of MAIRS is “To significantly advance understanding of the interactions between the human-natural components of the overall environment in the monsoon Asian region, and implications for the global earth system, in order to support strategies for sustainable development. “

3. MAIRS Themes • Multiple stresses in high mountain zones • Vulnerable systems in dryland zones • Rapid transformation in coastal Urban zones • Rapid development of urban zones • Modelling and observations

4. Observation network in dryland east Asia

5. Drought Impact on Rangeland Herders in Inner Mongolia - Study by Xiaoyi Wang, CASS - Pastoral village of 80 households - 10,000 livestock - Decade-long drought & rising temperature affected pasture & water availability - Herders' incomes significantly reduced - But there are social factors

6. Social Factors interacting with Drought Impacts Xiaoyi Wang, CASS

7. Impact of Warming on Precipitation Comparison of precipitation intensity in Taiwan for the two coolest years (blue) and two warmest years (red) over the period 1961-2005 Find similar result for GPCP data Response is larger than expected from Clausius-Clapeyron S. Liu et al. (2009)

8. Air Pollution in Mega-Cities Beijing Seoul Tokyo Osaka Shanghai Guangzhou Primary pollutant concentrations are expected to increase as: C ~ N where N: population     IGBP/IGAC Program Parrish and Zhu, 2009, Science

9. Going to deeper water ---New Nansha Harbour (100KM from city central) Fresh water supply of Nansha is rely on upstream Xijiang river Influence of sea level rise and coastal erosion Future scenario of cyclone and urban flood in Pearl River Delta Expanding of Guangzhou---Urban Case study Mountain City Field Sea Nansha

10. AusAID Public Sector Linkages Program (PSLP) Working towards improving resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) Region (China, Bangladesh, India & Nepal). PI: Lance Heath, Climate change Institute, ANU Time: 2013-2015

11. This project will use a number of approaches to identify the risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities of climate change impacts on small downstream communities in Bangladesh and upstream communities in Nepal and India. • Build the local capacity to help communities cope better with those risks and vulnerabilities identified. • A key outcome resulting from this project is the development of a climate change adaptation toolkit.

12. Asian Dryland Model Intercomparison Project (ADMIP) - Led by Jun Asanuma and Dennis Ojima - Support from APN, MAIRS and MEXT-JSPS - Few observations and relatively poor performance of LSM in Asian drylands - Data from sites at Tongyu, China; Kherlen Bayan Ulaan, Mongolia (AsiaFlux) - 7 LSMs and 7 TEMs from Japan, China, Korea, USA, Australia

13. Model performance at dryland lower model reproducibility of soil moiture correlation between GSWP2 (multi model analysis) andGSMDB(obs.) figures made by Dr. Yorozu at Kyoto Univ. in reference to Guo, and Dirmeyer (2002) JGR, Vol.111, D22S02 ADMIP Kickoff, Beijing 2010/7/11 13

14. Goals of ADMIP • Evaluating & improving land surface models (LSM, energy and water) & terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM, carbon) through offlinemodel intercomparison using data obtained at Asian dryland • but not to improve a model/models specific to Asian dryland • Better reproduction/prediction of landsurface state at Asian dryland using improved models ADMIP Kickoff, Beijing 2010/7/11 14

15. RMIP Simulation Design Integration Domain: (45-165E, 0-45N) Resolution: 60KM (for whole area, downscaling to 30KM in some key areas) Participating Countries: China, Japan, Korea, Australia, US Regional Models: 6 models in RMIP II, and 9 models in RMIP III Simulation Periods: 1978-2000 for control, 2038-2070 for projection, A 2-year spin-up time is applied to both control and projection runs Shuyu Wang, Nanjing University

16. RMIP Activities - Regional projections for 2040-2070 with uncertainties - Data sharing - Development of integrated assessment tool for urban policy and planning (UrbanCLIM – Yinpeng Li) - High-resolution precipitation events - High-resolution urban simulations - High-resolution mountain simulations (WCRP CORDEX south Asia, ICIMOD)

17. Training workshop on remote sensing and regional land surface processes • Date: 16-20 Sep. 2013 • Location: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS • Sponsors: UNESCO, MAIRS, NSFC, CARRI/CAS • Jointly organized by CARRI/CAS, MAIRS

18. Future Earth: A New Initiative by ICSU/ISSC To provide the knowledge required for societies in the world to face risks posed by global environmental change and to seize opportunities in a transition to global sustainability

19. Objectives: • To report the latest research on integrated studies in Asia-Pacific region • To promote the research of both natural and social scientists • To promote the research by young scientists from the region • To promote multi-disciplinary studies and the new ICSU-ISSC Future Earth in Asia-Pacific region • To discuss the implementation of the Future Earth initiative