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D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain

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D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region

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  1. Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain 2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France 3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France 4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, USA 5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain 6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

  2. Mediterranean climate • Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability • During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012) To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?

  3. AMV skill From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N) Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization

  4. AMO-related predictability Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns DJF JJA From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012) Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter

  5. Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5 Forecast years 2-5 Forecast years 6-9 ACC Init Init – NoInit after detrend

  6. Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5 Forecast years 2-5 Forecast years 6-9 Observations NoInit - Init

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