International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT Model)

1. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT Model) IMPACT Development Team

2. IMPACT Team

3. S W IMPACT Acronym Soup D S I F R I P A P U N P O P C S C G M S E P T D P A D S S A T T M

4. The Human Face of IMPACT

5. IMPACT Beginnings • Early 1990s – IMPACT development begins • Lack of consensus about policies needed to feed the world requires new analytical tools • 1993 – 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture and the Environment Initiative. • 1995 - First published results using IMPACT • Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla and Perez, 1995) • Considers the effects of population, investment, and trade on food security and nutrition in developing countries IMPACT Overview

6. IMPACT Timeline • 1998-2002 – The Food Model integrates a water simulation model (WSM) • Water availability becomes a driving variable on agriculture productivity • Food model has to disaggregate regionally to integrate the WSM correctly moving from 36 countries to 281 Food Production Units • 2000-2005 – Expansion to 40 commodities • 2005-2010 – Continued commodity refinement • Oilseed and Sugar modules Added • Fish Dropped • 2010-2013 – Update to new version of the model (IMPACT 3) • Base data updated to 2005 • Expansion to 56 commodities • Geographical disaggregation to 159 regions, 154 basins, and 320 FPUs IMPACT Overview

7. IMPACT Overview

8. IMPACT Model - Basic Idea • The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. • The IMPACT model allows IFPRI to provide both fundamental, global baseline projections of agricultural commodity production and trade and malnutrition outcomes along with cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet/food preferences, and many other themes. IMPACT Overview

9. IMPACT Model - Schematic IMPACT Overview

10. IMPACT Model - Briefly • Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities) • Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national level (159 countries, and 320 food production units) • Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with resulting trade • World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear international commodity markets • Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration • Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total production, area IMPACT Overview

11. IMPACT Model - Briefly • Food production is driven by both economic and environmental factors and has both extensive and intensive components (area x yield) • On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of irrigation and for exogenous technological change • Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and population • Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and feeding efficiency • Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand • Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a share of mandates in major countries IMPACT Overview

12. IMPACT Spatial Resolution IMPACT Overview